| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 20503 | 20503 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 22885 | 22755.7106018070 | 123.370163497408 | 129.289398192971 | 0.699859938524715 |
| 3 | 26217 | 26034.1579283185 | 139.873415173678 | 182.84207168145 | 1.63373762337835 |
| 4 | 26583 | 26453.3297469248 | 140.955390357216 | 129.670253075202 | 0.144607167104501 |
| 5 | 27751 | 27592.8378934003 | 145.007923908385 | 158.162106599691 | 0.516995150094647 |
| 6 | 28158 | 28012.7450308873 | 146.121851149791 | 145.254969112687 | 0.142326501383926 |
| 7 | 27373 | 27245.1853116555 | 142.435128542049 | 127.814688344515 | -0.473046358384757 |
| 8 | 28367 | 28204.949641262 | 145.719762540397 | 162.050358737984 | 0.423157861516766 |
| 9 | 26851 | 26739.1367350623 | 139.269349498644 | 111.863264937723 | -0.834336225113224 |
| 10 | 26733 | 26591.2024067877 | 138.124354517211 | 141.797593212318 | -0.148692340818115 |
| 11 | 26849 | 26709.8376606070 | 138.046965839639 | 139.162339393050 | -0.010089904209545 |
| 12 | 26733 | 26599.4519517215 | 137.064373828105 | 133.548048278496 | -0.128617666936945 |
| 13 | 27951 | 28571.4364684852 | 59.9095780052765 | -620.436468485235 | 1.14337330218970 |
| 14 | 29781 | 29722.9608780831 | 85.8036337178485 | 58.0391219168884 | 0.482967772768117 |
| 15 | 32914 | 32703.3134827237 | 95.781935268125 | 210.68651727628 | 1.49685127751953 |
| 16 | 33488 | 33424.8767033686 | 96.856558526784 | 63.1232966313542 | 0.323658502049087 |
| 17 | 35652 | 35497.4550139661 | 100.634707200520 | 154.544986033863 | 1.02183815990605 |
| 18 | 36488 | 36366.9550266923 | 102.125811395499 | 121.044973307746 | 0.397654829610959 |
| 19 | 35387 | 35358.8697424557 | 99.97797430916 | 28.1302575443211 | -0.574197066960397 |
| 20 | 35676 | 35525.799699225 | 100.107221116341 | 150.200300774992 | 0.0346272546975626 |
| 21 | 34844 | 34792.5154911953 | 98.501791604796 | 51.484508804732 | -0.431025256408253 |
| 22 | 32447 | 32411.3541516089 | 93.7231382942101 | 35.6458483911326 | -1.28247037920867 |
| 23 | 31068 | 30982.4735678124 | 90.6626827993254 | 85.5264321875637 | -0.787554106114009 |
| 24 | 29010 | 28995.0573524511 | 87.7008300227717 | 14.9426475489099 | -1.07439256044340 |
| 25 | 29812 | 30401.4411161845 | 62.7141134344012 | -589.441116184484 | 0.746504185445936 |
| 26 | 30951 | 30971.9742984871 | 70.205316935071 | -20.9742984870657 | 0.240177723116219 |
| 27 | 32974 | 32727.2232055922 | 75.5087533429695 | 246.776794407836 | 0.870710240036243 |
| 28 | 32936 | 32957.0760431975 | 75.6852427290943 | -21.0760431975164 | 0.0798059308776568 |
| 29 | 34012 | 33880.8496142913 | 76.774915898542 | 131.150385708719 | 0.438498913978682 |
| 30 | 32946 | 32873.9491837341 | 75.321527223257 | 72.0508162658557 | -0.560306877728566 |
| 31 | 31948 | 31980.5342974603 | 74.022436210909 | -32.5342974602714 | -0.500878670846998 |
| 32 | 30599 | 30521.802358201 | 71.9718679258393 | 77.1976417990226 | -0.792499623149191 |
| 33 | 27691 | 27708.8258274655 | 68.1196297753673 | -17.8258274655428 | -1.49163924559909 |
| 34 | 25073 | 25108.3426486270 | 64.5114528012522 | -35.3426486269561 | -1.37980218924384 |
| 35 | 23406 | 23321.3042155802 | 61.7862884884996 | 84.6957844197656 | -0.95748258724467 |
| 36 | 22248 | 22300.9986729208 | 61.3009201756477 | -52.9986729207916 | -0.559202667751186 |
| 37 | 22896 | 23309.1816233953 | 50.1629803550437 | -413.181623395343 | 0.51798579797272 |
| 38 | 25317 | 25330.3780191092 | 70.6955946921059 | -13.3780191092436 | 0.959949006861964 |
| 39 | 26558 | 26296.4587661876 | 73.4553762287909 | 261.54123381237 | 0.46232445893743 |
| 40 | 26471 | 26544.4833031483 | 73.6199899635388 | -73.4833031482534 | 0.0902549310526374 |
| 41 | 27543 | 27354.3248477111 | 74.3459113873509 | 188.675152288928 | 0.380609344178547 |
| 42 | 26198 | 26180.8330447864 | 73.0149107001889 | 17.1669552136448 | -0.645099132799864 |
| 43 | 24725 | 24788.2150235665 | 71.4405806456747 | -63.2150235664904 | -0.7576944421123 |
| 44 | 25005 | 24829.2924276412 | 71.4080738380939 | 175.707572358779 | -0.0156969666233261 |
| 45 | 23462 | 23464.21186302 | 69.8711225389888 | -2.21186301998513 | -0.742626659876032 |
| 46 | 20780 | 20859.2188283086 | 66.9070008704073 | -79.2188283086172 | -1.38288711381771 |
| 47 | 19815 | 19691.2040132688 | 65.4126703769228 | 123.795986731155 | -0.638543980139227 |
| 48 | 19761 | 19810.6354256281 | 65.4065397009827 | -49.6354256280792 | 0.0279126256069340 |
| 49 | 21454 | 21834.2378922598 | 49.3731001146263 | -380.237892259832 | 1.05220576453542 |
| 50 | 23899 | 23879.7260769428 | 65.0342646013388 | 19.2739230571749 | 0.988449956891296 |
| 51 | 24939 | 24680.6374330259 | 67.2774177208915 | 258.362566974137 | 0.379688645586868 |
| 52 | 23580 | 23778.1489814621 | 66.4123013216717 | -198.148981462133 | -0.501369013862195 |
| 53 | 24562 | 24303.0499196782 | 66.7862841870427 | 258.950080321815 | 0.237012212854014 |
| 54 | 24696 | 24613.9729960088 | 67.0081562320165 | 82.027003991193 | 0.126202992748952 |
| 55 | 23785 | 23919.4212466113 | 66.3020855319671 | -134.421246611260 | -0.393677712616824 |
| 56 | 23812 | 23618.1314759881 | 65.9623995899724 | 193.868524011931 | -0.190021317655576 |
| 57 | 21917 | 21905.4072968395 | 64.3115599961834 | 11.5927031604687 | -0.919470007982382 |
| 58 | 19713 | 19823.3931093083 | 62.1945443441787 | -110.393109308316 | -1.10958685140625 |
| 59 | 19282 | 19142.2218117665 | 61.4294036805772 | 139.778188233473 | -0.384343082343225 |
| 60 | 18788 | 18909.7367052943 | 61.5667166729017 | -121.736705294328 | -0.151883267790543 |
| 61 | 21453 | 21729.4767034059 | 44.9326269780021 | -276.476703405859 | 1.46586028905602 |
| 62 | 24482 | 24404.7465052926 | 61.1027376043004 | 77.2534947074002 | 1.31641378522984 |
| 63 | 27474 | 27054.9239271771 | 68.8624717378877 | 419.076072822911 | 1.33501566955671 |
| 64 | 27264 | 27505.6639156264 | 69.2099891416647 | -241.663915626419 | 0.197429188578787 |
| 65 | 27349 | 27148.2235944281 | 68.9056933134315 | 200.776405571882 | -0.220546014484366 |
| 66 | 30632 | 30331.8420914390 | 71.4109195894033 | 300.157908560951 | 1.61003472945438 |
| 67 | 29429 | 29654.4582650388 | 70.7860826155018 | -225.45826503882 | -0.38706095905868 |
| 68 | 30084 | 29814.3595155941 | 70.8604361134275 | 269.640484405875 | 0.0460646885019837 |
| 69 | 26290 | 26377.4361232946 | 67.8923312675595 | -87.4361232946096 | -1.81323668675524 |
| 70 | 24379 | 24501.2385666755 | 66.1102964731839 | -122.238566675452 | -1.00502145489244 |
| 71 | 23335 | 23177.3516641144 | 64.8899263166423 | 157.648335885565 | -0.718610948326894 |
| 72 | 21346 | 21648.2837651252 | 65.9875661710296 | -302.283765125199 | -0.823832162446921 |
| 73 | 21106 | 21631.6341442365 | 66.3668025003921 | -525.634144236459 | -0.043597591551458 |
| 74 | 24514 | 24432.8314711796 | 79.910624984512 | 81.1685288203668 | 1.3786785752787 |
| 75 | 28353 | 27762.5345482932 | 89.4032908802373 | 590.465451706816 | 1.6748140909146 |
| 76 | 30805 | 30840.1051212961 | 92.2665264387754 | -35.1051212961075 | 1.54485596099564 |
| 77 | 31348 | 31333.4779980529 | 92.5284524916091 | 14.5220019470929 | 0.207338349369361 |
| 78 | 34556 | 34063.2743092444 | 94.4507666470197 | 492.725690755553 | 1.36319953354693 |
| 79 | 33855 | 34146.4617130524 | 94.4420990748682 | -291.46171305245 | -0.00582198237302933 |
| 80 | 34787 | 34332.0801878639 | 94.5127960060396 | 454.91981213607 | 0.0471287187945739 |
| 81 | 32529 | 32618.2010408593 | 93.071870427789 | -89.201040859288 | -0.934772155094169 |
| 82 | 29998 | 30161.4012368641 | 90.8560374844457 | -163.401236864123 | -1.31818285276112 |
| 83 | 29257 | 29005.4553992067 | 89.930571574535 | 251.544600793338 | -0.644523336446238 |
| 84 | 28155 | 28448.7258457456 | 90.4603424161923 | -293.725845745572 | -0.334289661668408 |
| 85 | 30466 | 31032.6416584785 | 81.5715901270925 | -566.641658478483 | 1.30875391629959 |
| 86 | 35704 | 35569.2051028887 | 99.7309087540312 | 134.794897111287 | 2.25748324518845 |
| 87 | 39327 | 38748.5898836791 | 108.428099446795 | 578.4101163209 | 1.58648758574484 |
| 88 | 39351 | 39392.0680198832 | 108.971845260950 | -41.0680198832279 | 0.27660956264602 |
| 89 | 42234 | 42204.9107775728 | 110.651241483647 | 29.0892224272030 | 1.39766767889326 |
| 90 | 43630 | 43119.1033262394 | 111.191200807608 | 510.896673760578 | 0.415341890078884 |
| 91 | 43722 | 44005.1305928614 | 111.749314893189 | -283.130592861409 | 0.400500267119598 |
| 92 | 43121 | 42683.2275447244 | 110.696087424125 | 437.772455275614 | -0.741034181559199 |
| 93 | 37985 | 38201.5879845157 | 107.178921280909 | -216.587984515707 | -2.37379520988693 |
| 94 | 37135 | 37200.8425506302 | 106.259765622665 | -65.8425506301935 | -0.572752042766713 |
| 95 | 34646 | 34441.1276719898 | 104.484193418634 | 204.872328010226 | -1.48141021059758 |
| 96 | 33026 | 33456.0013051418 | 105.449911343061 | -430.001305141765 | -0.563375114540548 |
| 97 | 35087 | 35819.0817262018 | 99.1115745314163 | -732.081726201844 | 1.18058152283011 |
| 98 | 38846 | 38735.8462935224 | 108.735487566929 | 110.153706477649 | 1.43321246632269 |
| 99 | 42013 | 41317.3399601055 | 115.444186962764 | 695.66003989451 | 1.27347974750002 |
| 100 | 43908 | 43971.0585627057 | 118.168781341970 | -63.0585627056949 | 1.31217911486295 |
| 101 | 42868 | 43003.2999670125 | 117.507960693440 | -135.299967012529 | -0.561331723658396 |
| 102 | 44423 | 43936.2078002634 | 118.020339787275 | 486.792199736628 | 0.421466820385226 |
| 103 | 44167 | 44391.3370743132 | 118.249903527087 | -224.337074313162 | 0.174243332198469 |
| 104 | 43636 | 43045.383780085 | 117.217249799191 | 590.616219914975 | -0.756815172204146 |
| 105 | 44382 | 44447.6268821853 | 118.174701502815 | -65.626882185259 | 0.664233623735741 |
| 106 | 42142 | 42183.4471441669 | 116.286882460825 | -41.4471441668706 | -1.23157477683542 |
| 107 | 43452 | 43058.9324800434 | 116.673978728513 | 393.067519956587 | 0.39239485008743 |
| 108 | 36912 | 37815.5942507252 | 121.546495817310 | -903.594250725169 | -2.77177073057033 |
| 109 | 42413 | 42951.8376637935 | 110.353847472857 | -538.837663793528 | 2.61513682721013 |
| 110 | 45344 | 45279.3497897512 | 116.799444464620 | 64.6502102488417 | 1.13097192548896 |
| 111 | 44873 | 44445.0402500042 | 114.332114911795 | 427.959749995831 | -0.489735299451414 |
| 112 | 47510 | 47323.8852320025 | 117.440020164825 | 186.114767997469 | 1.42904946996624 |
| 113 | 49554 | 49627.6410045462 | 118.771465124012 | -73.6410045461699 | 1.13014469096053 |
| 114 | 47369 | 47123.4914789805 | 117.210238298574 | 245.508521019485 | -1.35573616694278 |
| 115 | 45998 | 46190.7557045978 | 116.529128278322 | -192.755704597789 | -0.542685119415649 |
| 116 | 48140 | 47544.8563287926 | 117.374545080430 | 595.143671207392 | 0.639668755414994 |
| 117 | 48441 | 48337.4549004029 | 117.867030260129 | 103.545099597117 | 0.349026054927942 |
| 118 | 44928 | 45251.6577711944 | 115.447997543297 | -323.65777119444 | -1.65613979114611 |
| 119 | 40454 | 40010.5783140778 | 113.232645691547 | 443.421685922171 | -2.76835171561795 |
| 120 | 38661 | 39790.3261406604 | 113.533244965375 | -1129.32614066040 | -0.172470690354044 |
| 121 | 37246 | 38034.2515068492 | 116.871607858351 | -788.251506849173 | -0.972976165469219 |
| 122 | 36843 | 36747.9955242644 | 113.350482097674 | 95.0044757356366 | -0.717283552282061 |
| 123 | 36424 | 36190.8860790286 | 111.692830764442 | 233.113920971385 | -0.345192761144028 |
| 124 | 37594 | 37473.6455670092 | 113.058677385300 | 120.354432990826 | 0.605310374247942 |
| 125 | 38144 | 38035.8154356364 | 113.336212236926 | 108.184564363558 | 0.232154879223718 |
| 126 | 38737 | 38416.6934315364 | 113.488874640349 | 320.306568463585 | 0.138286652012550 |
| 127 | 34560 | 35097.4255229384 | 111.353799492565 | -537.425522938364 | -1.77427421036908 |
| 128 | 36080 | 35527.5686417065 | 111.565988468768 | 552.431358293475 | 0.164773255236116 |
| 129 | 33508 | 33392.0457016653 | 109.957797992629 | 115.954298334703 | -1.16153382618737 |
| 130 | 35462 | 35320.4160969842 | 111.261784702376 | 141.583903015834 | 0.940016778131333 |
| 131 | 33374 | 33098.5591693616 | 110.490798317637 | 275.440830638398 | -1.20573081522928 |
| 132 | 32110 | 33112.600884581 | 110.575031541440 | -1002.60088458098 | -0.0498847521097657 |
| 133 | 35533 | 35980.5040388169 | 106.621282143884 | -447.504038816853 | 1.43269886493795 |
| 134 | 35532 | 35438.1440390498 | 105.197207486641 | 93.8559609501593 | -0.332316218213645 |
| 135 | 37903 | 37614.7667745226 | 110.068009486729 | 288.233225477431 | 1.06646093578365 |
| 136 | 36763 | 36781.6620528752 | 108.937025978198 | -18.6620528751583 | -0.487473696664362 |
| 137 | 40399 | 40113.1335025254 | 110.974313102746 | 285.86649747461 | 1.66580383924178 |
| 138 | 44164 | 43447.5089336765 | 112.757146928704 | 716.4910663235 | 1.66610648226296 |
| 139 | 44496 | 45009.4675944155 | 113.626436218636 | -513.467594415448 | 0.749039427203521 |
| 140 | 43110 | 42624.9319866186 | 112.000085841274 | 485.068013381391 | -1.29122833906688 |
| 141 | 43880 | 43800.4670042123 | 112.746973381521 | 79.5329957877481 | 0.549749737095814 |
| 142 | 43930 | 43645.1194403859 | 112.565009668058 | 284.880559614088 | -0.138586893537189 |
| 143 | 44327 | 44008.9852255906 | 112.630298600359 | 318.014774409395 | 0.129863915151465 |
