| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 206010 | 206010 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 198112 | 200283.109783875 | -4599.66453597477 | -2171.10978387525 | -1.31862493573313 |
| 3 | 194519 | 193748.328553908 | -5840.01836266856 | 770.671446091604 | -0.282704581494234 |
| 4 | 185705 | 186121.197379702 | -7042.21238172955 | -416.197379701553 | -0.266285485136702 |
| 5 | 180173 | 179779.939792294 | -6577.3041166279 | 393.060207706256 | 0.100414763351537 |
| 6 | 176142 | 175500.673487757 | -5060.68258219777 | 641.326512242843 | 0.33131406355305 |
| 7 | 203401 | 195581.769196214 | 11592.6321516796 | 7819.23080378562 | 3.64116455374229 |
| 8 | 221902 | 220267.528031298 | 20274.3918917871 | 1634.47196870176 | 1.89695465650162 |
| 9 | 197378 | 208923.594477999 | -687.947639494629 | -11545.5944779989 | -4.58051806555534 |
| 10 | 185001 | 188272.562463755 | -13919.8502749352 | -3271.56246375479 | -2.89134737528439 |
| 11 | 176356 | 174376.37284121 | -13904.1691894931 | 1979.62715879018 | 0.00342649964194933 |
| 12 | 180449 | 175624.246200397 | -3862.06433984283 | 4824.75379960342 | 2.1943189766364 |
| 13 | 180144 | 178532.751703064 | 588.174620668519 | 1611.24829693578 | 0.99606590438505 |
| 14 | 173666 | 176661.440211519 | -1013.96029136161 | -2995.4402115192 | -0.349336686643145 |
| 15 | 165688 | 166379.318227394 | -6849.97328929047 | -691.318227393939 | -1.27533801693679 |
| 16 | 161570 | 159465.133379099 | -6890.90162755286 | 2104.86662090063 | -0.00906384453138576 |
| 17 | 156145 | 154949.574815777 | -5367.12114005651 | 1195.42518422313 | 0.331971187353714 |
| 18 | 153730 | 159795.033060817 | 1141.18771367786 | -6065.03306081719 | 1.41696783045283 |
| 19 | 182698 | 176580.400957419 | 11110.6248894848 | 6117.59904258071 | 2.17910359713113 |
| 20 | 200765 | 190230.610646881 | 12732.4417902355 | 10534.3893531187 | 0.354471068690958 |
| 21 | 176512 | 186814.735174899 | 2412.59916954907 | -10302.7351748986 | -2.25486198332089 |
| 22 | 166618 | 173597.84789691 | -7574.44952242811 | -6979.84789690985 | -2.1824309524722 |
| 23 | 158644 | 161922.861439114 | -10192.0200172655 | -3278.86143911428 | -0.571983836040125 |
| 24 | 159585 | 155687.192825397 | -7670.60883594278 | 3897.80717460266 | 0.551977663250229 |
| 25 | 163095 | 157282.256953551 | -1756.2212399339 | 5812.74304644933 | 1.30007107989644 |
| 26 | 159044 | 157797.16322914 | -311.724802953505 | 1246.83677085954 | 0.315023732176737 |
| 27 | 155511 | 155490.312843015 | -1564.79532489183 | 20.6871569847786 | -0.273488418903559 |
| 28 | 153745 | 151963.478256056 | -2800.02189885133 | 1781.52174394361 | -0.271646001221344 |
| 29 | 150569 | 152270.458353671 | -832.518987696347 | -1701.4583536712 | 0.43028904246281 |
| 30 | 150605 | 160749.0748754 | 5048.33910384641 | -10144.0748753998 | 1.28141876324862 |
| 31 | 179612 | 173565.056427969 | 9945.51746728011 | 6046.94357203099 | 1.06932807845214 |
| 32 | 194690 | 180441.110601447 | 8007.88897774444 | 14248.8893985527 | -0.423482449628982 |
| 33 | 189917 | 192908.870178057 | 10826.1682745061 | -2991.87017805669 | 0.615834290484045 |
| 34 | 184128 | 193152.787178958 | 4139.82790479826 | -9024.78717895844 | -1.4610425271138 |
| 35 | 175335 | 183848.063250091 | -4346.81546376042 | -8513.06325009148 | -1.8549775553989 |
| 36 | 179566 | 178532.47911442 | -4958.13625917823 | 1033.52088558004 | -0.133827154475653 |
| 37 | 181140 | 175326.010993345 | -3851.46958445069 | 5813.989006655 | 0.242335437357563 |
| 38 | 177876 | 174282.939667669 | -2081.89137636933 | 3593.06033233118 | 0.386087158039522 |
| 39 | 175041 | 173158.81745396 | -1482.01197711658 | 1882.18254604027 | 0.1309829340609 |
| 40 | 169292 | 168994.249367709 | -3163.13862924079 | 297.750632291293 | -0.368567267034374 |
| 41 | 166070 | 169646.309863289 | -763.205362090949 | -3576.30986328944 | 0.525195350873923 |
| 42 | 166972 | 177455.635336791 | 4626.29242174081 | -10483.6353367913 | 1.1758814474454 |
| 43 | 206348 | 196321.832756868 | 13563.3111995753 | 10026.1672431322 | 1.9507526772774 |
| 44 | 215706 | 205815.797144771 | 11008.7914076598 | 9890.20285522912 | -0.558145810918597 |
| 45 | 202108 | 204973.224569227 | 3563.38744004507 | -2865.22456922663 | -1.62699829422687 |
| 46 | 195411 | 201522.098004694 | -843.370307251786 | -6111.09800469404 | -0.963006175797857 |
| 47 | 193111 | 200969.451858168 | -660.808414645414 | -7858.4518581679 | 0.0399127134042939 |
| 48 | 195198 | 196254.892861228 | -3207.11727861893 | -1056.89286122749 | -0.557147412377684 |
| 49 | 198770 | 193307.199120087 | -3044.07165019269 | 5462.80087991294 | 0.0356549306062865 |
| 50 | 194163 | 190009.950928879 | -3202.86511439732 | 4153.04907112133 | -0.0346575473208743 |
| 51 | 190420 | 186574.038746007 | -3348.53355712462 | 3845.96125399319 | -0.0318157697883962 |
| 52 | 189733 | 188530.143697537 | -32.1989098219215 | 1202.85630246252 | 0.726095908233123 |
| 53 | 186029 | 192484.261288498 | 2466.05880408533 | -6455.26128849841 | 0.546665559077637 |
| 54 | 191531 | 204715.923693619 | 8587.51207231675 | -13184.9236936193 | 1.33669696185798 |
| 55 | 232571 | 219814.574739236 | 12663.5894535258 | 12756.4252607641 | 0.889770826905143 |
| 56 | 243477 | 230541.282571362 | 11451.5808862048 | 12935.7174286375 | -0.264751257599742 |
| 57 | 227247 | 231372.534348839 | 4803.80587214477 | -4125.53434883918 | -1.45268604603741 |
| 58 | 217859 | 226696.479189295 | -1130.72628629846 | -8837.47918929496 | -1.29707740133963 |
| 59 | 208679 | 217491.164773179 | -6185.61047580729 | -8812.16477317872 | -1.10525909344435 |
| 60 | 213188 | 213154.618540323 | -5027.49949384904 | 33.3814596765529 | 0.253298113116776 |
| 61 | 216234 | 209660.257915201 | -4067.08755973879 | 6573.7420847991 | 0.209901025183713 |
| 62 | 213586 | 207871.546543988 | -2642.16478088054 | 5714.45345601204 | 0.311068995341031 |
| 63 | 209465 | 206322.216372048 | -1960.20324585189 | 3142.78362795154 | 0.148972379749681 |
| 64 | 204045 | 204244.079825336 | -2033.80372268019 | -199.079825335904 | -0.0161041908561374 |
| 65 | 200237 | 208692.791056841 | 2018.74919258869 | -8455.79105684062 | 0.886612053302789 |
| 66 | 203666 | 218109.214973232 | 6645.52525770887 | -14443.2149732318 | 1.0107774704751 |
| 67 | 241476 | 227988.197487346 | 8665.9177759746 | 13487.8025126538 | 0.441108452115652 |
| 68 | 260307 | 242223.32782838 | 12143.2090488191 | 18083.6721716197 | 0.75947603736066 |
| 69 | 243324 | 246698.113570274 | 7355.56522068407 | -3374.11357027425 | -1.04617633912792 |
| 70 | 244460 | 250995.458427583 | 5445.9307169345 | -6535.45842758265 | -0.417433774206057 |
| 71 | 233575 | 246239.323251358 | -926.478998484938 | -12664.3232513583 | -1.3934104185426 |
| 72 | 237217 | 239149.887039858 | -4777.95752681423 | -1932.88703985847 | -0.842153462146967 |
| 73 | 235243 | 230231.115284359 | -7365.6161218026 | 5011.88471564104 | -0.565387368669809 |
| 74 | 230354 | 223773.131548917 | -6799.18937007812 | 6580.86845108342 | 0.123673309821742 |
| 75 | 227184 | 221902.5534594 | -3728.19620507353 | 5281.44654059964 | 0.67090851790023 |
| 76 | 221678 | 222647.455542856 | -940.852685005029 | -969.455542856161 | 0.609678165246867 |
| 77 | 217142 | 226712.045409824 | 2182.18697207932 | -9570.0454098241 | 0.683142241913136 |
| 78 | 219452 | 234245.631834687 | 5522.80404512864 | -14793.6318346872 | 0.729973073126241 |
| 79 | 256446 | 244198.382905496 | 8286.24677164679 | 12247.6170945041 | 0.603434303596034 |
| 80 | 265845 | 247683.044291206 | 5293.55913899709 | 18161.955708794 | -0.653597280914804 |
| 81 | 248624 | 251443.918495041 | 4338.59004187538 | -2819.91849504131 | -0.208669902573859 |
| 82 | 241114 | 247003.50596222 | -1132.19171887157 | -5889.50596221952 | -1.19597039490213 |
| 83 | 229245 | 240671.185581779 | -4374.2572642998 | -11426.1855817794 | -0.708927423230605 |
| 84 | 231805 | 232790.233444466 | -6561.62730477453 | -985.23344446614 | -0.478202105051098 |
| 85 | 219277 | 217001.238053042 | -12316.4795685773 | 2275.76194695786 | -1.25723942192888 |
| 86 | 219313 | 211332.401361158 | -8175.31359617154 | 7980.5986388416 | 0.904277844607874 |
| 87 | 212610 | 207592.106521496 | -5415.7836494895 | 5017.89347850441 | 0.6028958998763 |
| 88 | 214771 | 213895.792445088 | 1876.65756904108 | 875.207554911787 | 1.59475873324332 |
| 89 | 211142 | 221701.792115577 | 5569.90235359118 | -10559.7921155769 | 0.807762121233438 |
| 90 | 211457 | 228055.533348406 | 6058.38528692768 | -16598.5333484055 | 0.106753132723758 |
| 91 | 240048 | 228586.115095126 | 2615.36837434874 | 11461.8849048736 | -0.751923287785187 |
| 92 | 240636 | 224241.991711658 | -1715.55113555273 | 16394.0082883419 | -0.94585801839996 |
| 93 | 230580 | 228503.602645675 | 2002.3501275666 | 2076.39735432535 | 0.812379260512101 |
| 94 | 208795 | 217569.61560968 | -6045.42313017666 | -8774.6156096797 | -1.75937952165 |
| 95 | 197922 | 207649.778936472 | -8457.01668199455 | -9727.7789364724 | -0.527323488365865 |
| 96 | 194596 | 193514.743192979 | -11992.9066278913 | 1081.25680702127 | -0.772931457783252 |
| 97 | 194581 | 190700.9814774 | -6277.96608651577 | 3880.01852259969 | 1.24845184974666 |
| 98 | 185686 | 180975.753770086 | -8422.07282838252 | 4710.24622991417 | -0.468232156966252 |
| 99 | 178106 | 176067.821937746 | -6238.44049575715 | 2038.17806225413 | 0.477090650021946 |
| 100 | 172608 | 173358.960267088 | -4045.08970247495 | -750.960267088028 | 0.479592287988124 |
| 101 | 167302 | 176270.880631625 | 281.715934089592 | -8968.88063162544 | 0.946225918545667 |
| 102 | 168053 | 181558.446041218 | 3396.51305971685 | -13505.4460412183 | 0.680744459035626 |
| 103 | 202300 | 188485.181377695 | 5592.17910480084 | 13814.8186223053 | 0.479558815181079 |
| 104 | 202388 | 189609.335968174 | 2815.60096827424 | 12778.6640318256 | -0.606407110459082 |
| 105 | 182516 | 179640.539382397 | -5124.9239954841 | 2875.46061760332 | -1.73501835998772 |
| 106 | 173476 | 178472.492736846 | -2666.96699474259 | -4996.49273684609 | 0.537349176778076 |
| 107 | 166444 | 175073.706988861 | -3121.81386843981 | -8629.70698886114 | -0.0994543327109596 |
| 108 | 171297 | 172616.63623776 | -2708.47672000346 | -1319.63623776008 | 0.0903475069198403 |
| 109 | 169701 | 165572.225997232 | -5403.93117105985 | 4128.77400276786 | -0.588823504274659 |
| 110 | 164182 | 159989.330848364 | -5515.08607875451 | 4192.66915163592 | -0.0242757331098949 |
| 111 | 161914 | 159467.150531239 | -2416.42155289376 | 2446.8494687608 | 0.677025853150317 |
| 112 | 159612 | 161849.620450504 | 562.002072245077 | -2237.62045050428 | 0.651191586698644 |
| 113 | 151001 | 162577.510301611 | 665.03229837288 | -11576.510301611 | 0.0225295011911768 |
| 114 | 158114 | 170752.525298265 | 5331.40353863347 | -12638.5252982645 | 1.01986279136083 |
| 115 | 186530 | 172289.999906201 | 2974.85819151602 | 14240.0000937991 | -0.514733727123633 |
| 116 | 187069 | 171047.166595641 | 357.178316658325 | 16021.833404359 | -0.57172253610119 |
| 117 | 174330 | 172414.858023977 | 984.013914870425 | 1915.14197602265 | 0.136963602528149 |
| 118 | 169362 | 174157.531255382 | 1454.66861716228 | -4795.53125538186 | 0.102890363007201 |
| 119 | 166827 | 175436.666029952 | 1345.71317346924 | -8609.6660299519 | -0.0238225566413786 |
| 120 | 178037 | 177220.392039621 | 1617.70035319194 | 816.607960379157 | 0.0594482735521231 |
| 121 | 186413 | 181263.85059689 | 3123.64198386508 | 5149.1494031099 | 0.328975381755206 |
| 122 | 189226 | 186247.599581428 | 4277.50746604551 | 2978.40041857167 | 0.252013409270007 |
| 123 | 191563 | 190663.007525319 | 4362.9928549446 | 899.992474680652 | 0.0186779429061571 |
| 124 | 188906 | 192503.586102179 | 2799.24853034303 | -3597.58610217918 | -0.341865717159265 |
| 125 | 186005 | 198957.597404294 | 5066.35276190169 | -12952.5974042935 | 0.495704946314452 |
| 126 | 195309 | 206045.903702381 | 6321.09883679113 | -10736.9037023813 | 0.2742322078 |
| 127 | 223532 | 208955.453522433 | 4204.65049550924 | 14576.5464775672 | -0.462315945778104 |
| 128 | 226899 | 211486.840112695 | 3167.3486727642 | 15412.1598873053 | -0.226563993733158 |
| 129 | 214126 | 212847.034064529 | 2047.61801373024 | 1278.96593547067 | -0.244660431046521 |
| 130 | 206903 | 212242.432296491 | 404.140320608268 | -5339.43229649135 | -0.359270529900228 |
| 131 | 204442 | 212971.385883873 | 605.515379350774 | -8529.38588387298 | 0.0440274656527811 |
| 132 | 220375 | 218859.159296468 | 3881.55926148845 | 1515.84070353197 | 0.7160200069091 |
| 133 | 214320 | 213142.374199007 | -2069.99879554272 | 1177.62580099314 | -1.30014808627327 |
| 134 | 212588 | 209318.243279716 | -3156.90236425673 | 3269.75672028422 | -0.237400412746034 |
| 135 | 205816 | 204675.46019026 | -4077.0565591083 | 1140.53980974018 | -0.201049278471186 |
| 136 | 202196 | 205740.555967152 | -892.543157578177 | -3544.55596715157 | 0.696155261017313 |
| 137 | 195722 | 208600.87976604 | 1432.81898590145 | -12878.87976604 | 0.508406725112828 |
| 138 | 198563 | 208756.477935827 | 641.140900804033 | -10193.4779358265 | -0.173024379233279 |
| 139 | 229139 | 212778.745780573 | 2736.3865892102 | 16360.2542194271 | 0.457705202669824 |
| 140 | 229527 | 214030.194441345 | 1816.79060106768 | 15496.8055586554 | -0.200863272843891 |
| 141 | 211868 | 211152.295565246 | -1089.15354683169 | 715.704434754372 | -0.634946893014263 |
| 142 | 203555 | 209576.776327862 | -1390.22722328913 | -6021.77632786163 | -0.0658133655147167 |
| 143 | 195770 | 206506.565458405 | -2430.66056556302 | -10736.5654584045 | -0.227462610859021 |
