| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 2540.9 | 2540.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 2370.3 | 2403.24924220022 | -33.0262994931002 | -32.8106022456320 | -0.0515760048945985 |
| 3 | 1807.5 | 1899.08565213502 | -60.1141201628654 | -82.2348547681139 | -0.74644362976417 |
| 4 | 1834.8 | 1882.64971758962 | -58.3161433188035 | -48.7315746149965 | 0.0691987457464548 |
| 5 | 786.8 | 951.72914141744 | 29.4836641318971 | -147.250014763606 | -1.54486561578287 |
| 6 | 1561.4 | 1434.80877129596 | 69.3114047653 | 120.44137654359 | 0.596275212152444 |
| 7 | 1347.2 | 1332.38017698497 | 62.9511849408438 | 18.1019577113344 | -0.268448903470677 |
| 8 | 1549.8 | 1432.84395008494 | 63.67029822502 | 116.223871151149 | 0.0586189578570718 |
| 9 | 1553.8 | 1761.99215161447 | 54.7134148070017 | -213.408599611800 | 0.433626576690118 |
| 10 | 1822.5 | 1717.42247406297 | 49.3708619782162 | 106.679397072275 | -0.141938122958428 |
| 11 | 3078.7 | 2902.70124212115 | 86.8374933633061 | 154.83576192816 | 1.76428976802993 |
| 12 | 1589.1 | 1679.05023825321 | 67.1945710549171 | -64.958398785773 | -2.03750832693580 |
| 13 | 1791.5 | 1949.63708045745 | 64.7650578145714 | -162.043352650802 | 0.323219937913877 |
| 14 | 2558.1 | 2506.84682244767 | 84.263318888183 | 42.8163233388957 | 0.726993770255664 |
| 15 | 2111.8 | 1944.29561110069 | 64.329629166144 | 179.386023662537 | -1.00026155177559 |
| 16 | 2083.1 | 2134.63018165642 | 66.1984410650525 | -53.8972415275152 | 0.195339259616548 |
| 17 | 2052.1 | 2263.79552755699 | 66.174771687948 | -212.885107513344 | 0.0987019302256869 |
| 18 | 2243.5 | 2159.90254881728 | 60.6533214443497 | 86.5909073839647 | -0.255137574025964 |
| 19 | 2622 | 2424.04473580615 | 66.5839093529423 | 194.243876256577 | 0.313747641755618 |
| 20 | 1952.6 | 2076.86018284819 | 59.9630996849717 | -116.564294830252 | -0.640085582793468 |
| 21 | 808.9 | 1144.75520068021 | 53.1024230173618 | -317.330581530955 | -1.54300529308708 |
| 22 | 1709.8 | 1574.99310673692 | 63.9033070902898 | 128.077679713886 | 0.570837091286128 |
| 23 | 1582.1 | 1380.14961731873 | 56.7032657933839 | 206.653722283612 | -0.398163486321655 |
| 24 | 865.6 | 941.39826291358 | 48.0198461424117 | -66.6457330207683 | -0.765112410724549 |
| 25 | 1116.1 | 1405.96021672508 | 52.9702601735526 | -297.574231676639 | 0.644797905478254 |
| 26 | 1119.4 | 1029.35720633031 | 41.5657790094912 | 97.763903426313 | -0.653569597301523 |
| 27 | 2350 | 1951.68899559281 | 65.2044682151926 | 382.324558022941 | 1.35362415591016 |
| 28 | 1975.6 | 2087.12084008529 | 66.5397906997679 | -112.811878217570 | 0.108288350326667 |
| 29 | 2536.5 | 2710.54450694367 | 75.1200372660775 | -184.297455293075 | 0.859445697977624 |
| 30 | 2785 | 2794.43918763284 | 75.3431442489767 | -9.59754576186648 | 0.0133910501349597 |
| 31 | 2819.7 | 2504.94149934109 | 65.8072491733637 | 321.376837369521 | -0.560261724028455 |
| 32 | 1829.5 | 2077.35815975666 | 55.7813904742582 | -238.819698975269 | -0.759839684374817 |
| 33 | 758.3 | 1089.74874544031 | 37.0415259598888 | -312.318146003386 | -1.60708060136847 |
| 34 | 2921.6 | 2647.77453200980 | 74.8521220679837 | 246.312313123360 | 2.32546493039416 |
| 35 | 2482 | 2189.94070844713 | 61.180622788213 | 301.720827202298 | -0.817586433318246 |
| 36 | 1892.7 | 2044.76059764758 | 56.7627624581198 | -148.290042907563 | -0.317475004096619 |
| 37 | 1855.1 | 2310.74201058281 | 60.9126764785346 | -459.466679830692 | 0.321814560881375 |
| 38 | 2151.3 | 1912.34408154991 | 49.6082982037528 | 247.275398265569 | -0.703030177765467 |
| 39 | 1642.2 | 1401.29836656822 | 35.3859631650194 | 251.070392891113 | -0.860219024490696 |
| 40 | 1640.5 | 1756.82692524019 | 42.5217123000626 | -122.165239699443 | 0.492111698744722 |
| 41 | 1366.1 | 1772.74907989586 | 41.9571434471202 | -406.163857432573 | -0.0408763740474573 |
| 42 | 1532.8 | 1299.40519986005 | 29.3090398873362 | 242.735406085996 | -0.789256053377551 |
| 43 | 824.4 | 702.576761551008 | 13.5330939003320 | 133.180143958761 | -0.9604665336808 |
| 44 | -518.7 | -259.91797349528 | -8.90646526517968 | -241.008012500901 | -1.49932162240393 |
| 45 | -978.5 | -599.261100829277 | -16.2626176017902 | -373.220480693438 | -0.507453521652441 |
| 46 | 1162.5 | 645.302571722459 | 14.7253768909594 | 494.33373259316 | 1.93189342701042 |
| 47 | 1243.4 | 958.480116986247 | 22.2199668951932 | 279.506350167183 | 0.457735295304846 |
| 48 | 1199.5 | 1356.02310821577 | 31.0565994374538 | -163.350665869844 | 0.576251741741529 |
| 49 | 883.1 | 1408.60912704329 | 31.5526558117382 | -525.900810237818 | 0.0330468449702881 |
| 50 | 1437.2 | 1041.37404078267 | 21.7185000690529 | 403.059029505694 | -0.611178060320598 |
| 51 | 534.5 | 397.422796403572 | 5.01968152845378 | 149.151787224210 | -1.02080702000920 |
| 52 | -1901.9 | -1461.04183172475 | -39.6640626649202 | -406.986280739806 | -2.85994318013708 |
| 53 | -2521.1 | -1991.11924917610 | -51.2521024069567 | -521.066134070186 | -0.75249704565682 |
| 54 | -1721.1 | -2197.50832982783 | -55.0939319890017 | 479.222395490493 | -0.237790496988483 |
| 55 | -3094.5 | -3305.76705295137 | -81.5250695603381 | 230.370331104769 | -1.61487216135076 |
| 56 | -3694.8 | -3359.74803760573 | -80.8552193909207 | -335.552321681858 | 0.0422595034494663 |
| 57 | -2492.1 | -2187.74927976893 | -50.691880992268 | -327.110697861798 | 1.92188280508946 |
| 58 | -464.6 | -1212.04089779946 | -25.1622688718237 | 728.822442179367 | 1.57333724598374 |
| 59 | -626.1 | -888.620432616458 | -16.4024760290047 | 256.197649187543 | 0.534457103630498 |
| 60 | -1711.4 | -1176.84040422838 | -23.0854439324801 | -529.624050185194 | -0.416935505309733 |
