Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | 27 | 26.4885072347855 | 0.122153734869542 | 0.133847388049581 | 0.311760983373203 |
4 | 28 | 27.1342140507663 | 0.23311824673463 | 0.228731269700097 | 0.457903128645816 |
5 | 27 | 27.4402761398104 | 0.247518398811714 | -0.618866011025374 | 0.107913243035474 |
6 | 29 | 28.1643886484897 | 0.334228847833608 | 0.269053410840415 | 0.406258323165324 |
7 | 27 | 27.8313690825885 | 0.214297167706663 | 0.123584922206004 | -0.655240986100755 |
8 | 30 | 28.6681306494107 | 0.328271109943408 | 0.35405035208128 | 0.654335034038774 |
9 | 27 | 28.576317321562 | 0.243146163020616 | -0.869867345353114 | -0.473927411775527 |
10 | 30 | 29.1337628874529 | 0.300739692884556 | 0.394864744714539 | 0.319730896984165 |
11 | 32 | 30.3282472607551 | 0.466701979632872 | 0.289088806993994 | 0.931954385446869 |
12 | 30 | 30.3661383325944 | 0.385580902031455 | 0.30439219579371 | -0.449556794087097 |
13 | 32 | 31.5406984939938 | 0.540958999188249 | -0.71493877512563 | 0.816191289314981 |
14 | 33 | 32.3308096372961 | 0.588054594922128 | 0.289099785352401 | 0.257863813925656 |
15 | 34 | 33.2162678006596 | 0.644462653593476 | 0.327045445164039 | 0.309688871900484 |
16 | 32 | 33.1134457193897 | 0.501792720619522 | 0.0333057824407519 | -0.776046862174301 |
17 | 34 | 34.008654119934 | 0.577398204151658 | -0.58710785485183 | 0.403193878082839 |
18 | 37 | 35.3867462918656 | 0.730093190432383 | 0.403052074205044 | 0.826299175426268 |
19 | 37 | 36.316722751826 | 0.768221457622207 | 0.380058217828084 | 0.207164676898101 |
20 | 36 | 36.7045391387188 | 0.695527605608356 | -0.126966403018158 | -0.393774402828982 |
21 | 34 | 36.4234344849801 | 0.509339759241467 | -0.978061212475755 | -1.00499537425496 |
22 | 38 | 37.1447859549601 | 0.549826232698546 | 0.537152043775514 | 0.218276631897497 |
23 | 41 | 38.7261111165581 | 0.746739704924741 | 0.722375168594884 | 1.06586943848126 |
24 | 41 | 40.051835646218 | 0.857323465316116 | 0.0750966064658244 | 0.598406805604166 |
25 | 44 | 42.4186846862801 | 1.14480755991479 | -0.660442329009606 | 1.55667184981305 |
26 | 42 | 42.9089628410352 | 1.01986481633982 | 0.0690264697580345 | -0.673474327413291 |
27 | 45 | 44.0900904893035 | 1.05063598480811 | 0.668566466483218 | 0.166393242126038 |
28 | 45 | 45.1442502646329 | 1.05130858965528 | -0.149538449644073 | 0.00363819199614165 |
29 | 49 | 47.4067457389236 | 1.28205233790169 | -0.206433014708675 | 1.24926768508418 |
30 | 54 | 50.639090066362 | 1.654148468336 | 0.453092220188854 | 2.00708245691218 |
31 | 52 | 52.0253793239282 | 1.60306204629076 | 0.374314631884652 | -0.276200561016786 |
32 | 53 | 53.5330229191274 | 1.58485775079644 | -0.390314716962754 | -0.098442644017665 |
33 | 51 | 53.8143587681823 | 1.33646050540347 | -0.878126138597903 | -1.3440302049865 |
34 | 55 | 54.8722489045787 | 1.28333136006269 | 0.542527272141132 | -0.286763605978873 |
35 | 60 | 57.3719448247025 | 1.51524762661149 | 0.8163826553382 | 1.25381310449318 |
36 | 60 | 59.3928468945365 | 1.61168619852704 | -0.147279755863603 | 0.521405424874104 |
37 | 63 | 62.0592725970851 | 1.81269194816893 | -0.625363947786413 | 1.08713816958434 |
38 | 60 | 62.3855664351422 | 1.52927152021036 | -0.174545350128675 | -1.53043687322043 |
39 | 64 | 63.6492332048664 | 1.47863911662716 | 0.745870122729308 | -0.273719438715818 |
40 | 65 | 65.1654641505836 | 1.48580698381513 | -0.22145531398507 | 0.0387486134101313 |
41 | 75 | 69.7927887275753 | 2.08450328632359 | 0.5439036258708 | 3.2372342629851 |
42 | 70 | 71.3544359730276 | 1.98482304912494 | -0.577247751785819 | -0.538416634812738 |
43 | 72 | 72.6263342257513 | 1.84893187819805 | 0.43327509655402 | -0.734582307536485 |
44 | 69 | 72.726341383867 | 1.51550795325048 | -1.12452274634797 | -1.80228975328815 |
45 | 75 | 74.2201765174614 | 1.51137767322435 | 0.811989190289589 | -0.0223296173603243 |
46 | 74 | 75.2492004618061 | 1.41942939833184 | -0.532600122988277 | -0.496746875207814 |
47 | 74 | 75.4387940458657 | 1.18502542128246 | 0.388011891902151 | -1.26703978914813 |
48 | 75 | 76.3956125126443 | 1.14152392319615 | -1.05640100116612 | -0.235129753300575 |
49 | 79 | 77.7158753559662 | 1.17558672014267 | 1.01888124341681 | 0.184136082383642 |
50 | 79 | 79.0564953373397 | 1.20704348825421 | -0.30157772975425 | 0.169965468519296 |
51 | 85 | 81.8250755278947 | 1.50465498799256 | 0.856346515579268 | 1.60863265377257 |
52 | 78 | 81.85355671232 | 1.22328543212972 | -1.66062818134754 | -1.52077503364625 |
53 | 84 | 83.030073583634 | 1.21437265239625 | 1.03932369656857 | -0.0481772494322569 |
54 | 85 | 84.6872449161486 | 1.2987689610205 | -0.34463419906309 | 0.456044564723472 |
55 | 85 | 85.2537374905804 | 1.15920974745096 | 0.833250354993239 | -0.754314765429988 |
56 | 82 | 85.4024490773193 | 0.966612620276884 | -1.90192010580532 | -1.04094519272034 |
57 | 91 | 87.6412294080345 | 1.20905140629166 | 1.47118761062908 | 1.31041896721792 |
58 | 90 | 89.3725787659999 | 1.30859587625757 | -0.147833515032271 | 0.53793054646883 |
59 | 98 | 92.9981022820614 | 1.75015240691565 | 1.56330703668235 | 2.3865528577459 |
60 | 98 | 96.7594566280031 | 2.13346405375339 | -1.74511373305005 | 2.07168574310596 |