| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 673514.5633 | 475663.9177 | 871365.2089 | 0.4621 | 0.0395 | 0.6734 | 0.0395 |
| 62 | 847224 | 924899.4463 | 722100.4817 | 1127698.4108 | 0.2264 | 0.9903 | 0.3903 | 0.7629 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1134812.4743 | 932013.5097 | 1337611.4389 | 0.2759 | 0.9973 | 0.4024 | 0.997 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1474569.5334 | 1271770.5688 | 1677368.498 | 0.3504 | 0.9999 | 0.7626 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1588385.3055 | 1385586.3409 | 1791184.27 | 0.2066 | 0.7629 | 0.2399 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1492520.3654 | 1289721.4008 | 1695319.33 | 0.4416 | 0.4568 | 0.4891 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2903517.4564 | 2700718.4918 | 3106316.421 | 0.3574 | 1 | 0.4413 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2734131.9565 | 2531332.992 | 2936930.9211 | 0.3009 | 0.1018 | 0.344 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1405919.2664 | 1203120.3018 | 1608718.231 | 0.445 | 0 | 0.4957 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1359321.5945 | 1156522.6299 | 1562120.5591 | 0.4728 | 0.3775 | 0.4581 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 952877.0816 | 750078.117 | 1155676.0462 | 0.4746 | 0 | 0.4552 | 0.8379 |
| 72 | 859626 | 860054.4078 | 657255.4432 | 1062853.3723 | 0.4983 | 0.2023 | 0.5354 | 0.5354 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1499 | 0.0143 | 0 | 92225996.479 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1119 | -0.084 | 0.0491 | 6033474952.4769 | 3062850474.478 | 55343.0255 |
| 63 | 0.0912 | -0.0542 | 0.0508 | 3789199525.5076 | 3304966824.8212 | 57488.8409 |
| 64 | 0.0702 | 0.027 | 0.0449 | 1580576636.1284 | 2873869277.648 | 53608.4814 |
| 65 | 0.0651 | -0.0533 | 0.0465 | 7165843516.7139 | 3732264125.4612 | 61092.2591 |
| 66 | 0.0693 | 0.0102 | 0.0405 | 230785762.3709 | 3148684398.2795 | 56113.1393 |
| 67 | 0.0356 | -0.013 | 0.0366 | 1430311281.5816 | 2903202524.4655 | 53881.3746 |
| 68 | 0.0378 | 0.0197 | 0.0345 | 2915572709.4957 | 2904748797.5942 | 53895.7215 |
| 69 | 0.0736 | -0.0102 | 0.0318 | 205155960.9917 | 2604794037.9717 | 51037.1829 |
| 70 | 0.0761 | 0.0052 | 0.0291 | 49792858.2352 | 2349293919.9981 | 48469.5154 |
| 71 | 0.1086 | -0.0069 | 0.0271 | 43323798.4413 | 2139660272.5838 | 46256.462 |
| 72 | 0.1203 | -5e-04 | 0.0249 | 183533.2164 | 1961370544.3032 | 44287.3633 |
