Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[49])
37	11530.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	11114.08	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	9181.73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	8614.55	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	8595.56	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	8396.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	7690.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
44	7235.47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
45	7992.12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
46	8398.37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
47	8593	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
48	8679.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	9374.63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	9634.97	9512.6374	8438.6276	10497.2713	0.4038	0.6082	7e-04	0.6082
51	9857.34	9512.6374	7775.4049	11026.0004	0.3276	0.4371	0.6659	0.5709
52	10238.83	9512.6374	7265.7639	11396.2849	0.2249	0.3599	0.825	0.5571
53	10433.44	9512.6374	6822.5852	11694.7562	0.2041	0.2571	0.795	0.5493
54	10471.24	9512.6374	6416.8095	11949.8998	0.2204	0.2295	0.8154	0.5442
55	10214.51	9512.6374	6034.1556	12175.3142	0.3027	0.2402	0.9101	0.5405
56	10677.52	9512.6374	5666.0616	12378.7394	0.2128	0.3156	0.9403	0.5376
57	11052.15	9512.6374	5306.6248	12565.0728	0.1614	0.2272	0.8356	0.5353
58	10500.19	9512.6374	4951.2664	12737.6431	0.2742	0.1747	0.7509	0.5334
59	10159.27	9512.6374	4596.0152	12898.8328	0.3541	0.2838	0.7027	0.5318
60	10222.24	9512.6374	4237.0268	13050.4156	0.3471	0.3601	0.6778	0.5305
61	10350.4	9512.6374	3870.1545	13193.7535	0.3278	0.3528	0.5293	0.5293

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
50	0.0528	0.0129	0	14965.2634	0	0
51	0.0812	0.0362	0.0245	118819.8777	66892.5705	258.636
52	0.101	0.0763	0.0418	527355.6824	220380.2745	469.4468
53	0.117	0.0968	0.0556	847877.4156	377254.5598	614.2105
54	0.1307	0.1008	0.0646	918918.9316	485587.4341	696.841
55	0.1428	0.0738	0.0661	492625.1371	486760.3846	697.6822
56	0.1537	0.1225	0.0742	1356951.4559	611073.3948	781.7118
57	0.1637	0.1618	0.0851	2370099.0246	830951.5985	911.5655
58	0.173	0.1038	0.0872	975260.1243	846985.8792	920.3184
59	0.1816	0.068	0.0853	418133.7106	804100.6623	896.7166
60	0.1897	0.0746	0.0843	503535.8402	776776.5876	881.3493
61	0.1974	0.0881	0.0846	701846.1625	770532.3855	877.7997