| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 7.4271 | 7.4271 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 7.7662 | 7.74856679927801 | 0.0176331995292359 | 0.0176332007219904 | 0.825877318167806 |
| 3 | 7.6289 | 7.61188406459956 | 0.0170159354004443 | 0.0170159354004442 | -0.661595985910299 |
| 4 | 7.5281 | 7.51155158818015 | 0.0165484118198462 | 0.0165484118198463 | -0.503101789956956 |
| 5 | 7.3831 | 7.36719011948947 | 0.0159098805105273 | 0.0159098805105273 | -0.689855194930098 |
| 6 | 7.2355 | 7.22023385921398 | 0.015266140786018 | 0.015266140786018 | -0.698236648345201 |
| 7 | 7.0617 | 7.04717529510318 | 0.0145247048968225 | 0.0145247048968225 | -0.807375867194713 |
| 8 | 7.1237 | 7.10898984472097 | 0.0147101552790265 | 0.0147101552790265 | 0.202737000576945 |
| 9 | 7.4533 | 7.43736459233642 | 0.0159354076635825 | 0.0159354076635825 | 1.34470590560733 |
| 10 | 7.5411 | 7.52488604738892 | 0.0162139526110766 | 0.0162139526110766 | 0.306892949711581 |
| 11 | 7.4978 | 7.48181583100285 | 0.0159841689971484 | 0.0159841689971483 | -0.254152275382592 |
| 12 | 7.3525 | 7.33713615476503 | 0.0153638452349719 | 0.0153638452349720 | -0.688763596946793 |
| 13 | 7.3862 | 7.49082703120338 | 0.00951154773345023 | -0.104627031203376 | 0.716470157387364 |
| 14 | 7.311 | 7.30618854113065 | 0.00481145386874014 | 0.00481145886935236 | -0.708145117511599 |
| 15 | 7.2013 | 7.19669637117913 | 0.00460362882086875 | 0.00460362882086866 | -0.489519150764006 |
| 16 | 7.249 | 7.24431829803187 | 0.00468170196813193 | 0.00468170196813197 | 0.184230783904569 |
| 17 | 7.3321 | 7.32727649277123 | 0.00482350722876448 | 0.00482350722876455 | 0.335227487381897 |
| 18 | 7.59 | 7.58471967593275 | 0.00528032406725284 | 0.00528032406725283 | 1.08186912529155 |
| 19 | 7.9082 | 7.90235585661733 | 0.00584414338267313 | 0.00584414338267312 | 1.33769313735252 |
| 20 | 8.2123 | 8.20591942514503 | 0.00638057485497425 | 0.00638057485497426 | 1.27500918252747 |
| 21 | 8.0929 | 8.08674524308493 | 0.00615475691506779 | 0.00615475691506778 | -0.537698233757084 |
| 22 | 8.118 | 8.11181129103163 | 0.00618870896836901 | 0.00618870896836902 | 0.080988977620993 |
| 23 | 8.1206 | 8.11441771090546 | 0.00618228909453932 | 0.0061822890945393 | -0.0153413886407199 |
| 24 | 8.2883 | 8.2818292863814 | 0.00647071361860732 | 0.00647071361860738 | 0.690473917528906 |
| 25 | 8.4281 | 8.46179133425479 | 0.00306284801665976 | -0.0336913342547889 | 0.818601556492607 |
| 26 | 8.7917 | 8.78368516940102 | 0.00801482247115776 | 0.00801483059897778 | 1.24003322931279 |
| 27 | 8.9168 | 8.90864759183822 | 0.00815240816177794 | 0.00815240816177787 | 0.500681867600775 |
| 28 | 8.9446 | 8.93642453127938 | 0.008175468720616 | 0.00817546872061604 | 0.0840174597427016 |
| 29 | 8.9786 | 8.97039425632403 | 0.00820574367596635 | 0.00820574367596634 | 0.110431498653719 |
| 30 | 9.5862 | 9.5772923893604 | 0.00890761063960619 | 0.00890761063960619 | 2.56314628831903 |
| 31 | 9.6533 | 9.64432432807147 | 0.00897567192852698 | 0.008975671928527 | 0.248844074632262 |
| 32 | 9.4125 | 9.40381612214418 | 0.00868387785582337 | 0.00868387785582337 | -1.06809909581460 |
| 33 | 9.2195 | 9.21105145927563 | 0.00844854072437134 | 0.00844854072437132 | -0.862447943432769 |
| 34 | 9.2882 | 9.27968123611439 | 0.00851876388561243 | 0.00851876388561244 | 0.257649659802235 |
| 35 | 9.6774 | 9.66843806810671 | 0.00896193189328686 | 0.00896193189328687 | 1.62788517945411 |
| 36 | 9.6857 | 9.67673883779513 | 0.00896116220487228 | 0.00896116220487235 | -0.00283058303596371 |
| 37 | 10.1688 | 10.1956272147361 | 0.00243883702459244 | -0.0268272147360572 | 2.3302832078919 |
| 38 | 10.4399 | 10.4347549486031 | 0.00514504233724613 | 0.00514505139687149 | 0.946054341828682 |
| 39 | 10.4675 | 10.4623354485162 | 0.00516455148382581 | 0.00516455148382574 | 0.0960370709468288 |
| 40 | 10.149 | 10.1441164074107 | 0.00488359258926055 | 0.00488359258926065 | -1.38427315174270 |
| 41 | 9.9163 | 9.91162246435983 | 0.00467753564016824 | 0.004677535640168 | -1.01611594756798 |
| 42 | 9.9268 | 9.9221174188953 | 0.00468258110469757 | 0.00468258110469758 | 0.0249019768194336 |
| 43 | 10.0529 | 10.0481122955581 | 0.00478770444189335 | 0.00478770444189336 | 0.519287830573666 |
| 44 | 10.1622 | 10.1573218869715 | 0.00487811302852447 | 0.00487811302852445 | 0.44698680027863 |
| 45 | 10.083 | 10.0781945560619 | 0.00480544393810591 | 0.00480544393810588 | -0.359592338651841 |
| 46 | 10.1134 | 10.1085724536754 | 0.00482754632458231 | 0.00482754632458232 | 0.109464988891711 |
| 47 | 10.3423 | 10.3372791210446 | 0.00502087895537148 | 0.00502087895537149 | 0.958332613345804 |
| 48 | 10.7536 | 10.7482288803209 | 0.00537111967911264 | 0.00537111967911271 | 1.73761062708716 |
| 49 | 11.0967 | 11.1177932051967 | 0.00191756317614841 | -0.0210932051966607 | 1.63754274746305 |
| 50 | 10.8588 | 10.8592388201639 | -0.00043882862533931 | -0.000438820163883977 | -1.05700731964457 |
| 51 | 10.7719 | 10.7723984161219 | -0.000498416121887206 | -0.000498416121887273 | -0.369816768412151 |
| 52 | 10.9262 | 10.9265918056032 | -0.000391805603189859 | -0.000391805603189806 | 0.662113049167792 |
| 53 | 10.708 | 10.7085417080633 | -0.000541708063327919 | -0.000541708063328226 | -0.931622464493622 |
| 54 | 10.5062 | 10.5068801250963 | -0.00068012509632438 | -0.000680125096324359 | -0.86083441836604 |
| 55 | 10.0683 | 10.0692806199662 | -0.000980619966180281 | -0.000980619966180217 | -1.87010434255196 |
| 56 | 9.8954 | 9.89649869650684 | -0.00109869650683532 | -0.00109869650683532 | -0.73534455672841 |
| 57 | 9.9589 | 9.95995435970504 | -0.00105435970503512 | -0.00105435970503516 | 0.276305737273075 |
| 58 | 9.9177 | 9.91878189444785 | -0.00108189444784958 | -0.00108189444784959 | -0.171713578639576 |
| 59 | 9.7189 | 9.7201174106768 | -0.00121741067680137 | -0.00121741067680139 | -0.845693111439456 |
| 60 | 9.5273 | 9.52864780975836 | -0.00134780975835926 | -0.00134780975835916 | -0.814317341839422 |
| 61 | 9.5746 | 9.5572887373518 | -0.001573752320421 | 0.0173112626481884 | 0.133525103871349 |
| 62 | 9.763 | 9.76302221599718 | -2.22303268542917e-05 | -2.22159971758409e-05 | 0.849405033275063 |
| 63 | 9.6117 | 9.6118086257439 | -0.000108625743893207 | -0.000108625743893309 | -0.647092334169511 |
| 64 | 9.6581 | 9.65818207971288 | -8.20797128773598e-05 | -8.20797128773532e-05 | 0.198941214799181 |
| 65 | 9.8361 | 9.83608049262872 | 1.95073712810654e-05 | 1.95073712808516e-05 | 0.761748395622014 |
| 66 | 10.2353 | 10.235052909579 | 0.000247090420996112 | 0.000247090420996105 | 1.70749998983046 |
| 67 | 10.1285 | 10.1283139050991 | 0.000186094900913675 | 0.000186094900913739 | -0.457895460541517 |
| 68 | 10.1347 | 10.1345104803225 | 0.000189519677540222 | 0.000189519677540216 | 0.0257245692638785 |
| 69 | 10.2141 | 10.2138653975021 | 0.000234602497859056 | 0.000234602497859039 | 0.338824072597873 |
| 70 | 10.0971 | 10.0969320838811 | 0.000167916118884755 | 0.000167916118884758 | -0.501472933122704 |
| 71 | 9.9651 | 9.96500722201324 | 9.27779867556013e-05 | 9.27779867555776e-05 | -0.565350518289300 |
| 72 | 10.1286 | 10.1284143769598 | 0.00018562304019171 | 0.000185623040191803 | 0.698977295694115 |
| 73 | 10.3356 | 10.3241947314723 | -0.00103684416425714 | 0.0114052685276979 | 0.865187932216387 |
| 74 | 10.1238 | 10.1260944738573 | -0.0022944897398976 | -0.00229447385732355 | -0.812833396653992 |
| 75 | 10.1326 | 10.1348890803987 | -0.00228908039872485 | -0.00228908039872496 | 0.0474588583440954 |
| 76 | 10.2467 | 10.2489323605446 | -0.00223236054463706 | -0.00223236054463705 | 0.497876496958151 |
| 77 | 10.44 | 10.4421371182350 | -0.00213711823503504 | -0.00213711823503530 | 0.836427076632708 |
| 78 | 10.3689 | 10.3710706931705 | -0.00217069317047501 | -0.00217069317047502 | -0.295001954014176 |
| 79 | 10.2415 | 10.2437316320374 | -0.00223163203738306 | -0.00223163203738299 | -0.535692442765182 |
| 80 | 10.3899 | 10.3920583675871 | -0.00215836758709928 | -0.00215836758709930 | 0.644355850244483 |
| 81 | 10.3162 | 10.3183931472027 | -0.00219314720271426 | -0.00219314720271427 | -0.306033163223771 |
| 82 | 10.4533 | 10.4554254634228 | -0.00212546342281789 | -0.00212546342281787 | 0.595853436012474 |
| 83 | 10.6741 | 10.6761171945650 | -0.00201719456496722 | -0.00201719456496726 | 0.953606991469831 |
| 84 | 10.8957 | 10.8976086424729 | -0.00190864247285206 | -0.00190864247285196 | 0.956566118672814 |
| 85 | 10.7404 | 10.7291856447054 | -0.00101948803565176 | 0.0112143552945983 | -0.733096489221792 |
| 86 | 10.6568 | 10.6582086272326 | -0.00140863983037296 | -0.00140862723257189 | -0.289969789961864 |
| 87 | 10.5682 | 10.5696457269530 | -0.00144572695298487 | -0.00144572695298498 | -0.372989184023579 |
| 88 | 10.9833 | 10.9845686240732 | -0.00126862407319025 | -0.00126862407319025 | 1.78190922424800 |
| 89 | 11.0237 | 11.0249509153402 | -0.00125091534020962 | -0.00125091534020985 | 0.178251047854762 |
| 90 | 10.8462 | 10.8475257875530 | -0.00132578755295218 | -0.00132578755295220 | -0.75396266519479 |
| 91 | 10.7287 | 10.7300751184579 | -0.00137511845786048 | -0.00137511845786038 | -0.496972945510703 |
| 92 | 10.7809 | 10.7822523785809 | -0.00135237858091410 | -0.00135237858091412 | 0.229184999542216 |
| 93 | 10.2609 | 10.2624724243711 | -0.00157242437110091 | -0.00157242437110094 | -2.2186841393223 |
| 94 | 9.8252 | 9.8269565328663 | -0.00175653286630728 | -0.00175653286630727 | -1.85712227994783 |
| 95 | 9.1071 | 9.10916019708398 | -0.00206019708397825 | -0.00206019708397833 | -3.06439306605472 |
| 96 | 8.695 | 8.69723394286558 | -0.00223394286557603 | -0.00223394286557591 | -1.75407929214146 |
| 97 | 9.2205 | 9.17149612413693 | -0.00445489969857698 | 0.0490038758630709 | 2.09041248191656 |
| 98 | 9.0496 | 9.05460915222478 | -0.00500917223789506 | -0.00500915222477997 | -0.467769222051947 |
| 99 | 8.7406 | 8.74572384318586 | -0.00512384318586281 | -0.00512384318586302 | -1.30045029130411 |
| 100 | 8.921 | 8.92605388693901 | -0.00505388693901072 | -0.00505388693901074 | 0.793657405081196 |
| 101 | 9.011 | 9.01601805808482 | -0.00501805808481796 | -0.00501805808481813 | 0.406633591233611 |
| 102 | 9.3157 | 9.32060135941713 | -0.00490135941712902 | -0.00490135941712907 | 1.32495134319441 |
| 103 | 9.5786 | 9.58340049254804 | -0.0048004925480378 | -0.0048004925480377 | 1.14563483398549 |
| 104 | 9.6246 | 9.62938136584386 | -0.00478136584385678 | -0.00478136584385684 | 0.21732084594893 |
| 105 | 9.7485 | 9.75323293473685 | -0.00473293473684889 | -0.0047329347368489 | 0.550489648082331 |
| 106 | 9.9431 | 9.9477579411074 | -0.00465794110739321 | -0.00465794110739315 | 0.85273204979304 |
| 107 | 10.1152 | 10.1197914657187 | -0.00459146571873962 | -0.00459146571873969 | 0.756157893846958 |
| 108 | 10.1827 | 10.1872643636460 | -0.004564363645976 | -0.00456436364597582 | 0.308402182078795 |
| 109 | 9.9777 | 9.93859600195647 | -0.00355491085774163 | 0.0391039980435285 | -1.06794725927161 |
| 110 | 9.7436 | 9.74798286374374 | -0.00438288378423411 | -0.0043828637437393 | -0.780547988618482 |
| 111 | 9.3462 | 9.35071606568596 | -0.00451606568596075 | -0.00451606568596104 | -1.68133044681761 |
| 112 | 9.2623 | 9.26684295728252 | -0.00454295728251458 | -0.00454295728251455 | -0.339605162554386 |
| 113 | 9.1505 | 9.15507927869193 | -0.00457927869193504 | -0.00457927869193530 | -0.458846589450193 |
| 114 | 8.5794 | 8.58417105971429 | -0.00477105971428671 | -0.00477105971428675 | -2.42358085906393 |
| 115 | 8.3245 | 8.32935570578031 | -0.00485570578030867 | -0.00485570578030855 | -1.07005396962358 |
| 116 | 8.6538 | 8.65854266249459 | -0.00474266249458824 | -0.00474266249458831 | 1.42952134810355 |
| 117 | 8.752 | 8.7567078492587 | -0.00470784925870629 | -0.0047078492587063 | 0.44038973311464 |
| 118 | 8.8104 | 8.81508651460832 | -0.00468651460832123 | -0.00468651460832117 | 0.269976021682733 |
| 119 | 9.2665 | 9.27103079076425 | -0.00453079076425134 | -0.00453079076425138 | 1.97124951379478 |
| 120 | 9.0895 | 9.09408905743197 | -0.00458905743197106 | -0.00458905743197088 | -0.737825117461123 |
