| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[35]) |
| 23 | 332 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 24 | 298 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 25 | 360 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 26 | 336 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 27 | 325 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 28 | 393 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 29 | 301 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 30 | 426 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 31 | 265 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 32 | 210 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 33 | 429 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 34 | 440 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 35 | 357 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 36 | 431 | 333.0931 | 333.0931 | 333.0931 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 37 | 442 | 364.8755 | 364.8755 | 364.8755 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 38 | 422 | 350.772 | 350.772 | 350.772 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 39 | 544 | 365.2989 | 365.2989 | 365.2989 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 40 | 420 | 331.0625 | 331.0625 | 331.0625 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 41 | 396 | 313.2616 | 313.2616 | 313.2616 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 42 | 482 | 400.8554 | 400.8554 | 400.8554 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 43 | 261 | 229.4807 | 229.4807 | 229.4807 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 44 | 211 | 185.6587 | 185.6587 | 185.6587 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 45 | 448 | 349.0584 | 349.0584 | 349.0584 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 46 | 468 | 344.1519 | 344.1519 | 344.1519 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 47 | 464 | 370.9412 | 370.9412 | 370.9412 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 425 | 320.5156 | 320.5156 | 320.5156 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 49 | 415 | 357.0067 | 357.0067 | 357.0067 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 50 | 433 | 340.0623 | 340.0623 | 340.0623 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 51 | 531 | 399.7557 | 399.7557 | 399.7557 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 52 | 457 | 315.2479 | 315.2479 | 315.2479 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 53 | 380 | 346.1644 | 346.1644 | 346.1644 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 54 | 481 | 352.8808 | 352.8808 | 352.8808 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 55 | 302 | 213.939 | 213.939 | 213.939 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 56 | 216 | 212.0291 | 212.0291 | 212.0291 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 57 | 509 | 374.3684 | 374.3684 | 374.3684 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 58 | 417 | 402.4583 | 402.4583 | 402.4583 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 59 | 370 | 334.5499 | 334.5499 | 334.5499 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 36 | 0 | 0.2939 | 0 | 9585.753 | 0 | 0 |
| 37 | 0 | 0.2114 | 0.2527 | 5948.187 | 7766.97 | 88.1304 |
| 38 | 0 | 0.2031 | 0.2361 | 5073.4241 | 6869.1214 | 82.8802 |
| 39 | 0 | 0.4892 | 0.2994 | 31934.0677 | 13135.3579 | 114.6096 |
| 40 | 0 | 0.2686 | 0.2932 | 7909.8874 | 12090.2638 | 109.9557 |
| 41 | 0 | 0.2641 | 0.2884 | 6845.6351 | 11216.159 | 105.9064 |
| 42 | 0 | 0.2024 | 0.2761 | 6584.4481 | 10554.486 | 102.735 |
| 43 | 0 | 0.1374 | 0.2588 | 993.467 | 9359.3587 | 96.7438 |
| 44 | 0 | 0.1365 | 0.2452 | 642.1819 | 8390.7835 | 91.6012 |
| 45 | 0 | 0.2835 | 0.249 | 9789.4449 | 8530.6496 | 92.3615 |
| 46 | 0 | 0.3599 | 0.2591 | 15338.3597 | 9149.5323 | 95.6532 |
| 47 | 0 | 0.2509 | 0.2584 | 8659.9457 | 9108.7335 | 95.4397 |
| 48 | 0 | 0.326 | 0.2636 | 10916.9802 | 9247.8294 | 96.1656 |
| 49 | 0 | 0.1624 | 0.2564 | 3363.2187 | 8827.5 | 93.9548 |
| 50 | 0 | 0.2733 | 0.2575 | 8637.4198 | 8814.828 | 93.8873 |
| 51 | 0 | 0.3283 | 0.2619 | 17225.0757 | 9340.4685 | 96.6461 |
| 52 | 0 | 0.4497 | 0.273 | 20093.6679 | 9973.0096 | 99.865 |
| 53 | 0 | 0.0977 | 0.2632 | 1144.8452 | 9482.5561 | 97.3784 |
| 54 | 0 | 0.3631 | 0.2685 | 16414.5265 | 9847.3966 | 99.234 |
| 55 | 0 | 0.4116 | 0.2756 | 7754.7352 | 9742.7635 | 98.7054 |
| 56 | 0 | 0.0187 | 0.2634 | 15.7683 | 9279.5733 | 96.3305 |
| 57 | 0 | 0.3596 | 0.2678 | 18125.6637 | 9681.6683 | 98.3955 |
| 58 | 0 | 0.0361 | 0.2577 | 211.4615 | 9269.9202 | 96.2804 |
| 59 | 0 | 0.106 | 0.2514 | 1256.7068 | 8936.0363 | 94.5306 |
