Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | 27 | 26.4885072084148 | 0.122153739677173 | 0.133847377390101 | 0.311760858102279 |
4 | 28 | 27.1342139787824 | 0.233118255632730 | 0.228731262357845 | 0.457902952748373 |
5 | 27 | 27.4402760855130 | 0.247518422173008 | -0.618866072381305 | 0.107913249961221 |
6 | 29 | 28.1643885357689 | 0.334228863262016 | 0.269053415973408 | 0.406258176803948 |
7 | 27 | 27.8313691417159 | 0.214297196219431 | 0.123585017988838 | -0.655240729634882 |
8 | 30 | 28.6681305761669 | 0.328271129587664 | 0.354050270433736 | 0.654334776357932 |
9 | 27 | 28.5763173732614 | 0.243146165322458 | -0.869867284285748 | -0.473927224296203 |
10 | 30 | 29.1337628643354 | 0.300739691199911 | 0.394864646113366 | 0.319730795081523 |
11 | 32 | 30.3282469900917 | 0.466701966869033 | 0.289088784018708 | 0.931954047212896 |
12 | 30 | 30.3661382898020 | 0.385580915727939 | 0.304392170664299 | -0.449556493624059 |
13 | 32 | 31.5406982829708 | 0.540959024058378 | -0.714938743274434 | 0.816190965739956 |
14 | 33 | 32.3308094633352 | 0.588054633367041 | 0.289099752490549 | 0.257863805577972 |
15 | 34 | 33.2162676644242 | 0.644462705894904 | 0.327045364309705 | 0.309688840936 |
16 | 32 | 33.1134458187647 | 0.501792772087465 | 0.0333059243567654 | -0.776046584144826 |
17 | 34 | 34.0086541322497 | 0.577398247942449 | -0.587107902519284 | 0.403193677854578 |
18 | 37 | 35.3867461481501 | 0.730093234935232 | 0.403051953665283 | 0.826298883541811 |
19 | 37 | 36.3167226811369 | 0.768221517323864 | 0.380058105126853 | 0.207164683675655 |
20 | 36 | 36.7045391454117 | 0.695527650284469 | -0.126966174439744 | -0.393774339235075 |
21 | 34 | 36.4234347165548 | 0.509339793078035 | -0.978061075206743 | -1.00499506364408 |
22 | 38 | 37.1447861304711 | 0.549826259669821 | 0.537151858628066 | 0.218276514321450 |
23 | 41 | 38.7261110735168 | 0.74673973519033 | 0.722374875997814 | 1.06586906159781 |
24 | 41 | 40.0518354376283 | 0.857323486112755 | 0.0750967143855673 | 0.598406534170209 |
25 | 44 | 42.4186841606676 | 1.14480758721019 | -0.660442307976261 | 1.55667131929052 |
26 | 42 | 42.9089626793242 | 1.01986487631535 | 0.0690265686603976 | -0.673473901677294 |
27 | 45 | 44.0900904776949 | 1.05063606975600 | 0.668566234223496 | 0.166393315635449 |
28 | 45 | 45.1442502396122 | 1.05130865599812 | -0.149538279409317 | 0.00363809002217009 |
29 | 49 | 47.4067455162186 | 1.28205241149257 | -0.206433208400234 | 1.24926726787648 |
30 | 54 | 50.6390895035875 | 1.65414855663668 | 0.45309209387698 | 2.00708179380598 |
31 | 52 | 52.0253791247045 | 1.60306217424042 | 0.374314600472984 | -0.276200244826131 |
32 | 53 | 53.5330227905509 | 1.58485786323550 | -0.39031443816904 | -0.09844269171555 |
33 | 51 | 53.8143590714567 | 1.33646061649704 | -0.878126048922161 | -1.34402971906003 |
34 | 55 | 54.8722493068712 | 1.28333145550776 | 0.542527073932561 | -0.286763584541826 |
35 | 60 | 57.3719448989305 | 1.51524769952023 | 0.816382397045657 | 1.25381252112246 |
36 | 60 | 59.3928467966224 | 1.61168624892955 | -0.147279632574143 | 0.521405111518667 |
37 | 63 | 62.0592722838602 | 1.81269199830320 | -0.62536393993839 | 1.08713776852673 |
38 | 60 | 62.3855666027673 | 1.52927158133358 | -0.174545167455207 | -1.53043624920666 |
39 | 64 | 63.6492334928828 | 1.47863917634907 | 0.745869923915414 | -0.273719345577482 |
40 | 65 | 65.165464310073 | 1.48580700944209 | -0.221455218277328 | 0.0387484148476624 |
41 | 75 | 69.7927881872859 | 2.08450332368169 | 0.543903161609824 | 3.23723313595437 |
42 | 70 | 71.3544356757763 | 1.98482310068779 | -0.57724741234765 | -0.538416359528932 |
43 | 72 | 72.6263342718263 | 1.84893195130445 | 0.433275091617407 | -0.734581920792908 |
44 | 69 | 72.7263417447026 | 1.51550798876610 | -1.12452229870255 | -1.8022892935136 |
45 | 75 | 74.2201769798673 | 1.51137772029396 | 0.811988644194288 | -0.0223295466831262 |
46 | 74 | 75.2492008126526 | 1.41942939210537 | -0.53259991774425 | -0.496746980013409 |
47 | 74 | 75.438794573858 | 1.18502539125921 | 0.388011908750471 | -1.26703945153618 |
48 | 75 | 76.3956127336959 | 1.14152382947651 | -1.05640065860976 | -0.235130011074764 |
49 | 79 | 77.7158755895938 | 1.17558665520892 | 1.01888073381216 | 0.184136170260871 |
50 | 79 | 79.0564953622532 | 1.20704340379994 | -0.301577650627588 | 0.169965300409228 |
51 | 85 | 81.8250751240503 | 1.50465491248330 | 0.85634639476333 | 1.60863211013474 |
52 | 78 | 81.8535565917786 | 1.22328535447966 | -1.66062761274873 | -1.52077448559197 |
53 | 84 | 83.0300736449797 | 1.21437262197530 | 1.03932328103317 | -0.0481769764152994 |
54 | 85 | 84.6872447910746 | 1.29876892201547 | -0.344634135817353 | 0.456044350314516 |
55 | 85 | 85.2537376281421 | 1.15920973097611 | 0.833250254835934 | -0.754314366045447 |
56 | 82 | 85.4024491947146 | 0.966612554835191 | -1.90191954722115 | -1.04094507427672 |
57 | 91 | 87.6412293047514 | 1.20905137196067 | 1.47118710338695 | 1.31041865321177 |
58 | 90 | 89.3725785632114 | 1.30859585444345 | -0.147833561319080 | 0.537930415956737 |
59 | 98 | 92.9981016668497 | 1.75015242124173 | 1.56330669799700 | 2.38655217471476 |
60 | 98 | 96.759455553512 | 2.13346407384452 | -1.74511328831461 | 2.07168501175944 |