Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[476])
471	43.1555	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
472	43.1885	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
473	43.43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
474	43.31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
475	42.815	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
476	42.7017	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
477	42.28	42.7791	42.2636	43.2946	0.0289	0.6157	0.0598	0.6157
478	41.922	42.8329	41.9955	43.6703	0.0165	0.9022	0.0811	0.6206
479	42.17	42.8338	41.7921	43.8754	0.1058	0.9569	0.1851	0.5981
480	42.1962	42.8212	41.6451	43.9972	0.1488	0.8611	0.5041	0.5789
481	42.3215	42.8167	41.5182	44.1151	0.2274	0.8255	0.5689	0.5689
482	42.3173	42.8179	41.4069	44.229	0.2434	0.7548	0.7725	0.5641
483	42.391	42.8196	41.2993	44.3398	0.2903	0.7414	0.8764	0.5604
484	42.463	42.8197	41.2001	44.4394	0.333	0.6981	0.7841	0.5568
485	42.4125	42.8195	41.105	44.534	0.3209	0.6582	0.7619	0.5536
486	42.304	42.8193	41.0164	44.6222	0.2877	0.6708	0.7058	0.5509
487	41.813	42.8193	40.931	44.7077	0.1481	0.7036	0.6989	0.5486
488	41.651	42.8194	40.8501	44.7886	0.1224	0.8417	0.6651	0.5466
489	41.539	42.8194	40.7717	44.8671	0.1102	0.8683	0.6335	0.5448
490	41.1575	42.8194	40.6968	44.942	0.0624	0.8815	0.6464	0.5433
491	40.9545	42.8194	40.624	45.0148	0.048	0.9311	0.6773	0.5418

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
477	0.0061	-0.0117	0	0.2491	0	0
478	0.01	-0.0213	0.0165	0.8297	0.5394	0.7344
479	0.0124	-0.0155	0.0161	0.4406	0.5065	0.7117
480	0.014	-0.0146	0.0158	0.3906	0.4775	0.691
481	0.0155	-0.0116	0.0149	0.2452	0.431	0.6565
482	0.0168	-0.0117	0.0144	0.2506	0.401	0.6332
483	0.0181	-0.01	0.0138	0.1837	0.3699	0.6082
484	0.0193	-0.0083	0.0131	0.1273	0.3396	0.5827
485	0.0204	-0.0095	0.0127	0.1656	0.3203	0.5659
486	0.0215	-0.012	0.0126	0.2655	0.3148	0.5611
487	0.0225	-0.0235	0.0136	1.0127	0.3782	0.615
488	0.0235	-0.0273	0.0147	1.3651	0.4605	0.6786
489	0.0244	-0.0299	0.0159	1.6394	0.5512	0.7424
490	0.0253	-0.0388	0.0175	2.7618	0.7091	0.8421
491	0.0262	-0.0436	0.0193	3.4778	0.8937	0.9453