Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[41])
40	5272	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	6197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	6446	6904.1312	6516.115	7292.1473	0.0103	0.9998	0.9998	0.9998
43	7157	7370.4947	6501.4097	8239.5797	0.3151	0.9815	0.9815	0.9959
44	7559	7725.0618	6418.3938	9031.7299	0.4016	0.8029	0.8029	0.989
45	7674	7960.1401	6206.5027	9713.7776	0.3746	0.673	0.673	0.9756
46	6929	8137.9584	5972.4284	10303.4884	0.1369	0.6627	0.6627	0.9605
47	7156	8256.4297	5695.5207	10817.3387	0.1998	0.8452	0.8452	0.9425
48	6805	8345.6222	5418.1281	11273.1163	0.1512	0.7871	0.7871	0.9249
49	7095	8405.3165	5131.0505	11679.5825	0.2164	0.831	0.831	0.9069
50	7222	8450.062	4851.6163	12048.5077	0.2518	0.7698	0.7698	0.8901
51	7593	8480.1351	4575.1544	12385.1157	0.3281	0.7361	0.7361	0.8741
52	7910	8502.586	4308.611	12696.561	0.3909	0.6646	0.6646	0.8594
53	7878	8517.734	4049.3267	12986.1412	0.3895	0.6051	0.6051	0.8457

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
42	0.0287	-0.0664	0	209884.1797	0	0
43	0.0602	-0.029	0.0477	45579.978	127732.0788	357.3962
44	0.0863	-0.0215	0.0389	27576.5342	94346.8973	307.1594
45	0.1124	-0.0359	0.0382	81876.1762	91229.217	302.0417
46	0.1358	-0.1486	0.0603	1461580.4729	365299.4682	604.4001
47	0.1583	-0.1333	0.0724	1210945.5199	506240.4768	711.5058
48	0.179	-0.1846	0.0885	2373516.7552	772994.2309	879.2009
49	0.1987	-0.1559	0.0969	1716929.3319	890986.1185	943.9206
50	0.2173	-0.1453	0.1023	1508136.2201	959558.352	979.5705
51	0.2349	-0.1046	0.1025	787008.6514	942303.3819	970.7231
52	0.2517	-0.0697	0.0995	351158.1652	888562.9077	942.6361
53	0.2677	-0.0751	0.0975	409259.5685	848620.9628	921.2063