Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.157445652416388 |
beta | 0.00916996697365402 |
gamma | 0.694119859153262 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 14.3 | 15.2827457264957 | -0.982745726495732 |
14 | 14.6 | 15.5184975911223 | -0.918497591122335 |
15 | 17.5 | 18.2797056114228 | -0.779705611422848 |
16 | 17.2 | 17.7949734421629 | -0.594973442162864 |
17 | 17.2 | 17.5926342108219 | -0.392634210821914 |
18 | 14.1 | 14.3632522043784 | -0.263252204378409 |
19 | 10.4 | 12.8996940896714 | -2.49969408967138 |
20 | 6.8 | 7.00957560299231 | -0.209575602992307 |
21 | 4.1 | 3.57972373629064 | 0.520276263709361 |
22 | 6.5 | 5.02386836624918 | 1.47613163375082 |
23 | 6.1 | 4.8914727985768 | 1.20852720142320 |
24 | 6.3 | 6.25618891351627 | 0.0438110864837329 |
25 | 9.3 | 12.1586793020158 | -2.8586793020158 |
26 | 16.4 | 12.1290418842469 | 4.27095811575306 |
27 | 16.1 | 15.7883635878636 | 0.311636412136444 |
28 | 18 | 15.5849579390829 | 2.41504206091707 |
29 | 17.6 | 15.9806750037264 | 1.61932499627360 |
30 | 14 | 13.1524466336763 | 0.847553366323726 |
31 | 10.5 | 10.5661496303475 | -0.0661496303475051 |
32 | 6.9 | 6.41235029789332 | 0.48764970210668 |
33 | 2.8 | 3.53395180909005 | -0.733951809090051 |
34 | 0.7 | 5.35266561425973 | -4.65266561425973 |
35 | 3.6 | 4.10299038614618 | -0.502990386146184 |
36 | 6.7 | 4.51877612928182 | 2.18122387071818 |
37 | 12.5 | 9.06511046800151 | 3.43488953199849 |
38 | 14.4 | 14.2098986508605 | 0.190101349139466 |
39 | 16.5 | 14.9191488751772 | 1.58085112482282 |
40 | 18.7 | 16.1555369979277 | 2.54446300207229 |
41 | 19.4 | 16.116274436426 | 3.28372556357401 |
42 | 15.8 | 13.1111494201982 | 2.68885057980178 |
43 | 11.3 | 10.2954595438098 | 1.00454045619018 |
44 | 9.7 | 6.6507292525452 | 3.04927074745481 |
45 | 2.9 | 3.48152454435278 | -0.58152454435278 |
46 | 0.1 | 3.05297293779391 | -2.95297293779391 |
47 | 2.5 | 4.52076233020462 | -2.02076233020462 |
48 | 6.7 | 6.28819459232851 | 0.411805407671486 |
49 | 10.3 | 11.3073671284030 | -1.00736712840301 |
50 | 11.2 | 13.8669057227964 | -2.66690572279635 |
51 | 17.4 | 14.9473909884565 | 2.45260901154354 |
52 | 20.5 | 16.8935459635882 | 3.60645403641182 |
53 | 17 | 17.4643278672635 | -0.464327867263485 |
54 | 14.2 | 13.5262667910885 | 0.673733208911457 |
55 | 10.6 | 9.41043634514365 | 1.18956365485635 |
56 | 6.1 | 6.9931037051144 | -0.8931037051144 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
57 | 1.07652528957599 | -2.7437553665554 | 4.89680594570738 |
58 | -0.649783694223311 | -4.51798688862558 | 3.21841950017896 |
59 | 1.82997711226625 | -2.08642097960063 | 5.74637520413314 |
60 | 5.34298521953185 | 1.37812213009878 | 9.30784830896492 |
61 | 9.47151429793148 | 5.45791831564233 | 13.4851102802206 |
62 | 11.2247322159054 | 7.16213759777913 | 15.2873268340317 |
63 | 15.7286532192823 | 11.6167963238585 | 19.8405101147061 |
64 | 17.9694002786119 | 13.8080195168156 | 22.1307810404082 |
65 | 15.5923615641978 | 11.3811973517984 | 19.8035257765972 |
66 | 12.3943841049656 | 8.13317881657199 | 16.6555893933591 |
67 | 8.4745803456872 | 4.1630782702243 | 12.7860824211501 |
68 | 4.65065257374453 | 0.288599871356671 | 9.01270527613238 |