Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[109])
97	19.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
98	15.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
99	14.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
100	13.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
101	14.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
102	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
103	14.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
104	13.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
105	15.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
106	14.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
107	12.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
108	16.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
109	16.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
110	16	14.0525	12.6428	15.4622	0.0034	0.0022	0.0157	0.0022
111	15.8	13.1314	11.5396	14.7232	5e-04	2e-04	0.0591	1e-04
112	15.2	12.7996	10.8696	14.7296	0.0074	0.0012	0.1802	4e-04
113	15.7	12.9646	10.4974	15.4318	0.0149	0.0379	0.1835	0.0064
114	18.9	14.9509	12.2385	17.6632	0.0022	0.2941	0.4858	0.2032
115	17.4	12.9627	9.8817	16.0437	0.0024	1e-04	0.2156	0.023
116	17	13.1849	9.7546	16.6153	0.0146	0.008	0.4063	0.0479
117	19.8	14.4012	10.7183	18.0841	0.002	0.0833	0.2975	0.183
118	17.7	13.3106	9.3143	17.3068	0.0157	7e-04	0.2325	0.0856
119	16	11.6564	7.3941	15.9187	0.0229	0.0027	0.349	0.0205
120	19.6	14.8234	10.3222	19.3245	0.0188	0.3042	0.2744	0.2891
121	19.7	15.3379	10.577	20.0988	0.0363	0.0397	0.3769	0.3769

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
110	0.0512	0.1386	0	3.7928	0	0
111	0.0618	0.2032	0.1709	7.1215	5.4572	2.3361
112	0.0769	0.1875	0.1765	5.762	5.5588	2.3577
113	0.0971	0.211	0.1851	7.4823	6.0397	2.4576
114	0.0926	0.2641	0.2009	15.5957	7.9509	2.8197
115	0.1213	0.3423	0.2245	19.6899	9.9074	3.1476
116	0.1327	0.2894	0.2337	14.5548	10.5713	3.2514
117	0.1305	0.3749	0.2514	29.1468	12.8932	3.5907
118	0.1532	0.3298	0.2601	19.2669	13.6014	3.688
119	0.1866	0.3726	0.2713	18.8665	14.1279	3.7587
120	0.1549	0.3222	0.276	22.8164	14.9178	3.8624
121	0.1584	0.2844	0.2767	19.0279	15.2603	3.9064