| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.855314864777257 |
| beta | 0.0252228018917085 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 38737 | 38442.7943376068 | 294.205662393157 |
| 14 | 38144 | 37937.7174870782 | 206.282512921782 |
| 15 | 37594 | 37283.4305493924 | 310.569450607611 |
| 16 | 36424 | 35777.8334969757 | 646.166503024266 |
| 17 | 36843 | 36054.1342913292 | 788.865708670812 |
| 18 | 37246 | 36599.1313824386 | 646.86861756137 |
| 19 | 38661 | 36911.4230970538 | 1749.57690294621 |
| 20 | 40454 | 40489.9969874451 | -35.9969874451199 |
| 21 | 44928 | 43103.8164084717 | 1824.18359152826 |
| 22 | 48441 | 43273.6965070294 | 5167.30349297063 |
| 23 | 48140 | 50920.4732504005 | -2780.4732504005 |
| 24 | 45998 | 47484.4140376552 | -1486.41403765516 |
| 25 | 47369 | 50644.3496980102 | -3275.34969801022 |
| 26 | 49554 | 47154.6081854782 | 2399.39181452175 |
| 27 | 47510 | 48519.6721805846 | -1009.67218058464 |
| 28 | 44873 | 46033.3897680229 | -1160.38976802291 |
| 29 | 45344 | 44846.1699821568 | 497.83001784324 |
| 30 | 42413 | 45176.4238107366 | -2763.42381073661 |
| 31 | 36912 | 42712.5442437365 | -5800.54424373655 |
| 32 | 43452 | 39393.3162490431 | 4058.68375095692 |
| 33 | 42142 | 45685.1287516123 | -3543.12875161225 |
| 34 | 44382 | 41538.7864982645 | 2843.21350173555 |
| 35 | 43636 | 45788.4906863834 | -2152.49068638339 |
| 36 | 44167 | 42831.0144843376 | 1335.98551566244 |
| 37 | 44423 | 47961.2759558062 | -3538.27595580615 |
| 38 | 42868 | 44877.1461433188 | -2009.14614331885 |
| 39 | 43908 | 41692.6195820056 | 2215.38041799444 |
| 40 | 42013 | 41726.8798484619 | 286.120151538118 |
| 41 | 38846 | 41831.9212902576 | -2985.92129025756 |
| 42 | 35087 | 38450.5794353890 | -3363.57943538904 |
| 43 | 33026 | 34760.9677878567 | -1734.96778785666 |
| 44 | 34646 | 36160.2960914411 | -1514.2960914411 |
| 45 | 37135 | 36280.0830782005 | 854.916921799471 |
| 46 | 37985 | 36608.8406751356 | 1376.15932486445 |
| 47 | 43121 | 38638.6752982609 | 4482.32470173906 |
| 48 | 43722 | 41761.6495640174 | 1960.35043598259 |
| 49 | 43630 | 46635.0397405614 | -3005.03974056143 |
| 50 | 42234 | 44154.0741689972 | -1920.07416899723 |
| 51 | 39351 | 41584.717002687 | -2233.71700268699 |
| 52 | 39327 | 37366.2391177713 | 1960.76088222873 |
| 53 | 35704 | 38298.1139580916 | -2594.11395809161 |
| 54 | 30466 | 35073.6058965703 | -4607.60589657035 |
| 55 | 28155 | 30405.1145719043 | -2250.11457190428 |
| 56 | 29257 | 31234.1633517367 | -1977.16335173673 |
| 57 | 29998 | 31129.2626216296 | -1131.26262162965 |
| 58 | 32529 | 29620.1982645913 | 2908.80173540870 |
| 59 | 34787 | 33228.9759525714 | 1558.02404742860 |
| 60 | 33855 | 33241.4082660266 | 613.5917339734 |
| 61 | 34556 | 35970.9713958884 | -1414.97139588836 |
| 62 | 31348 | 34767.7903853884 | -3419.7903853884 |
| 63 | 30805 | 30598.767235971 | 206.232764029002 |
| 64 | 28353 | 28855.1744048542 | -502.174404854162 |
| 65 | 24514 | 26749.3885697929 | -2235.38856979291 |
| 66 | 21106 | 23276.0674204115 | -2170.0674204115 |
| 67 | 21346 | 20821.8051312095 | 524.194868790517 |
| 68 | 23335 | 23911.3775826198 | -576.377582619753 |
| 69 | 24379 | 25005.3223520738 | -626.322352073832 |
| 70 | 26290 | 24401.9148158549 | 1888.0851841451 |
| 71 | 30084 | 26809.4372923999 | 3274.56270760011 |
| 72 | 29429 | 28057.6532402213 | 1371.34675977875 |
| 73 | 30632 | 31062.4278767054 | -430.427876705362 |
| 74 | 27349 | 30353.1093545012 | -3004.10935450122 |
| 75 | 27264 | 27015.058976107 | 248.941023893000 |
| 76 | 27474 | 25157.2234880534 | 2316.77651194663 |
| 77 | 24482 | 25224.2967310677 | -742.29673106769 |
| 78 | 21453 | 23082.2401301385 | -1629.24013013846 |
| 79 | 18788 | 21536.7925738898 | -2748.79257388979 |
| 80 | 19282 | 21653.5015583878 | -2371.50155838779 |
| 81 | 19713 | 21151.9046658262 | -1438.90466582622 |
| 82 | 21917 | 20146.8314228122 | 1770.16857718777 |
| 83 | 23812 | 22581.1075246791 | 1230.89247532091 |
| 84 | 23785 | 21688.8926596524 | 2096.10734034764 |
| 85 | 24696 | 24951.4291364799 | -255.429136479881 |
| 86 | 24562 | 23921.7448591370 | 640.255140862955 |
| 87 | 23580 | 24152.3917831075 | -572.391783107512 |
| 88 | 24939 | 21854.4743645458 | 3084.52563545419 |
| 89 | 23899 | 22115.406578182 | 1783.59342181799 |
| 90 | 21454 | 22039.7401379344 | -585.740137934441 |
| 91 | 19761 | 21281.6292132008 | -1520.62921320078 |
| 92 | 19815 | 22586.6868569339 | -2771.68685693386 |
| 93 | 20780 | 21952.3989437535 | -1172.39894375353 |
| 94 | 23462 | 21719.9871533751 | 1742.01284662486 |
| 95 | 25005 | 24131.9585396449 | 873.041460355107 |
| 96 | 24725 | 23130.9345704223 | 1594.06542957765 |
| 97 | 26198 | 25685.0864539043 | 512.913546095737 |
| 98 | 27543 | 25519.9967765596 | 2023.00322344036 |
| 99 | 26471 | 26865.5348163776 | -394.5348163776 |
| 100 | 26558 | 25360.3377933521 | 1197.66220664792 |
| 101 | 25317 | 23889.9710821215 | 1427.02891787852 |
| 102 | 22896 | 23229.6190197624 | -333.619019762369 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 103 | 22620.4222468502 | 18403.828614115 | 26837.0158795853 |
| 104 | 25146.4281792146 | 19538.3061870352 | 30754.5501713939 |
| 105 | 27275.3341992481 | 20507.5154288656 | 34043.1529696305 |
| 106 | 28653.7931680972 | 20852.9452955244 | 36454.64104067 |
| 107 | 29598.9150756109 | 20845.7926655971 | 38352.0374856247 |
| 108 | 28085.4999591047 | 18436.0598785402 | 37734.9400396691 |
| 109 | 29215.4206488829 | 18710.4978437953 | 39720.3434539705 |
| 110 | 28914.6738822089 | 17585.1183074876 | 40244.2294569301 |
| 111 | 28221.0402037763 | 16090.7259957014 | 40351.3544118511 |
| 112 | 27333.0882160549 | 14420.8059732716 | 40245.3704588382 |
| 113 | 24895.1177801043 | 11215.8301856645 | 38574.4053745441 |
| 114 | 22752.2697778447 | 8317.98068251375 | 37186.5588731757 |
