Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.996556487594152
betaFALSE
gammaFALSE


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
2126.81126.640.170000000000002
3125.84126.809414602891-0.969414602891007
4126.77125.8433381912110.926661808788523
5124.34126.766809028565-2.4268090285654
6124.4124.3483567469960.0516432530035189
7120.48124.399822165818-3.91982216581761
8118.54120.493497956257-1.95349795625671
9117.66118.546726894447-0.886726894447179
10116.97117.663053455062-0.69305345506163
11120.11116.9723865381703.13761346182957
12119.16120.099195589119-0.939195589119436
13116.9119.163234131663-2.26323413166264
14116.11116.907793474810-0.797793474809723
15114.98116.112747211728-1.13274721172780
16113.65114.983900629076-1.33390062907627
17115.82113.6545933033642.1654066966356
18117.59115.8125433951761.77745660482358
19118.57117.5838793061300.986120693869552
20118.07118.566604281157-0.496604281156991
21114.98118.071710063003-3.09171006300295
22114.04114.990646341957-0.950646341957238
23115.02114.0432735624720.976726437527887
24114.28115.016636630395-0.736636630395253
25115.04114.2825366173750.757463382624636
26116.7115.0373916654451.66260833455505
27119.21116.6942747875742.51572521242609
28118.39119.201337069021-0.811337069021306
29116.5118.392793849263-1.89279384926250
30115.46116.506517859102-1.04651785910166
31117.59115.4636036972312.12639630276925
32117.33117.582677727952-0.252677727951664
33116.2117.330870098891-1.13087009889088
34116.83116.2038941652150.626105834785065
35118.99116.8278439967912.16215600320945
36118.62118.982554588980-0.362554588979563
37121.09118.6212484612252.46875153877505
38122.4121.0814988234491.31850117655073
39123.76122.3954597248411.36454027515857
40125.33123.7553011886341.57469881136578
41123.23125.324577505108-2.09457750510758
42122.52123.237212703624-0.717212703623858
43123.64122.5224697308431.11753026915744
44124.67123.6361517706541.03384822934575
45124.71124.6664399307960.0435600692035081
46122.53124.709850000361-2.17985000036128
47124.4122.5375063405191.86249365948088
48125.45124.3935864799781.05641352002223
49125.35125.446362226938-0.096362226938112
50124.3125.350331824524-1.05033182452391
51127.03124.3036168306682.72638316933200
52128.51127.0206116657331.48938833426668
53128.1128.504871272794-0.404871272793827
54128.94128.1013941792510.838605820749365
55129.67128.9371122504530.732887749547359
56129.87129.6674762919420.202523708057669
57131.12129.8693026070991.25069739290117
58132.68131.1156932080121.56430679198843
59132.24132.674613290155-0.434613290155227
60133.63132.2414965962561.38850340374358
61129.91133.625218671304-3.71521867130366
62127.93129.922793401585-1.99279340158506
63131.17127.9368622088013.23313779119933
64130.86131.158866649906-0.298866649906159
65133.48130.8610291510172.61897084898334
66134.08133.4709815413910.609018458609057
67136.02134.0779028373821.94209716261761
68132.8136.013312364327-3.21331236432715
69132.37132.811065080990-0.441065080990427
70133.05132.3715188130780.678481186921829
71132.57133.047663641616-0.47766364161572
72130.7132.571644840676-1.87164484067574
73130.5130.706445032228-0.206445032228203
74129.67130.500710896030-0.830710896029615
75127.8129.672860563276-1.87286056327615
76126.82127.806449218584-0.98644921858407
77126.85126.8233968501220.0266031498780706
78128.28126.8499083917231.43009160827664
79128.3128.2750754618050.0249245381945968
80126.82128.299914172044-1.47991417204352
81125.08126.825096102811-1.74509610281102
82128.53125.0860092600793.44399073992058
83130.34128.5181405751611.82185942483855
84131.52130.3337264044691.18627359553116
85132.59131.5159150521571.07408494784295
86131.17132.586301375157-1.41630137515719
87132.72131.1748770513561.54512294864423
88133.36132.7146793499580.645320650042237
89132.82133.357777830336-0.537777830335841
90132.9132.8218518446300.0781481553696608
91130.9132.899730895857-1.99973089585748
92129.41130.906886098148-1.49688609814825
93128.67129.415154545849-0.745154545849118
94129.28128.6725659489230.607434051077121
95130.91129.2779082933091.63209170669060
96131.06130.9043798719610.155620128039487
97130.84131.059464120159-0.219464120158506
98131.41130.8407557274200.569244272579596
99133.22131.4080398002851.81196019971458
100132.06133.213760492573-1.15376049257338
101132.48132.0639729885700.41602701143043
102134.38132.4785674058251.90143259417502
103135.22134.3734523932730.846547606726915
104134.89135.217084902814-0.327084902814107
105136.09134.8911263209211.19887367907941
106136.33136.0858716636130.24412833638695
107136.32136.329159341045-0.00915934104506277
108137.48136.3200315403051.15996845969548
109136.53137.476005634219-0.946005634218636
110136.8136.5332575821370.266742417862588
111138.03136.7990814691751.23091853082508
112137.39138.025761316769-0.635761316768537
113137.55137.3921892519810.157810748018562
114136.08137.549456576731-1.46945657673143
115134.78136.085060091952-1.30506009195184
116133.28134.784493990617-1.50449399061702
117133.57133.2851807437210.28481925627878
118134.84133.5690192213581.27098077864244
119133.02134.835623361921-1.81562336192115
120133.49133.0262521215710.463747878428876
121133.77133.4884030784270.281596921572543
122134.34133.7690303175070.570969682492887
123134.5134.3380338588150.161966141185019
124134.03134.499442267584-0.469442267583503
125135.51134.0316165302721.47838346972773
126136.53135.5049091681811.02509083181863
127135.95136.526470087004-0.576470087003514
128134.32135.951985081896-1.63198508189620
129132.44134.325619760876-1.88561976087567
130133.61132.4464931550391.16350684496072
131131.02133.605993449745-2.58599344974510
132130.05131.028904900526-0.978904900525635
133128.21130.053370871169-1.8433708711691
134129.03128.2163476704630.813652329536552
135130.34129.0271981781091.31280182189082
136131.57130.335479350641.23452064936009
137132.63131.5657489128291.06425108717136
138132.06132.626335238178-0.566335238178368
139134.44132.0619501824192.37804981758146
140134.1134.431811155951-0.331811155951442
141132.49134.101142595832-1.61114259583189
142134.23132.4955479895161.73445201048364
143134.92134.2240273929850.695972607015449
144135.61134.9176034096940.692396590306402
145134.53135.607615723752-1.07761572375153
146133.86134.533710783113-0.67371078311345
147133.89133.8623199314400.0276800685603575
148135.33133.8899046833411.44009531665949
149135.86135.3250410139110.534958986088526
150136.22135.8581578620950.361842137905199
151137.38136.2187539921091.16124600789084
152137.31137.376001234966-0.0660012349655688
153136.89137.310227276071-0.420227276071415
154138.01136.8914470578381.11855294216159
155136.72138.006148249067-1.28614824906705
156135.77136.724428867451-0.954428867451412
157137.52135.7732865876461.74671341235444
158135.61137.513985170695-1.90398517069508
159132.94135.616556396556-2.67655639655587
160134.12132.9492167551561.17078324484351
161132.55134.115968393372-1.56596839337180
162134.11132.5553924315901.55460756841026
163134.19134.1046466895520.0853533104480277
164135.57134.1897060848171.38029391518342
165135.05135.565246940779-0.515246940779321
166134.32135.051774259233-0.73177425923268
167133.61134.32251987374-0.712519873739922
168134.75133.6124535710251.13754642897536
169133.1134.746082844760-1.64608284475960
170133.26133.1056683066970.154331693303021
171131.63133.259468556899-1.62946855689950
172132.47131.6356110951910.834388904809373
173132.45132.467126771455-0.0171267714549970
174133.33132.450058976250.879941023750035
175133.57133.3269699121680.24303008783167
176134.13133.5691631228780.560836877122455
177133.92134.128068751256-0.208068751255979
178132.62133.920716487326-1.30071648732621
179132.3132.624479033361-0.324479033360603
180133.26132.3011173475770.95888265242317
181132.6133.256698075691-0.656698075690628
182134.38132.6022613479711.77773865202946
183134.17134.373878334897-0.203878334897382
184135.46134.1707020575751.28929794242453
185135.09135.455560286540-0.365560286540443
186134.96135.091258811382-0.131258811381770
187133.85134.960451991345-1.11045199134537
188132.59133.853823855208-1.2638238552083
189131.15132.594351993124-1.4443519931242
190130.91131.154973644007-0.244973644006734
191131.07130.9108435697820.159156430217763
192130.78131.069451942858-0.289451942858079
193129.95130.780996731356-0.830996731356151
194131.41129.9528615475541.45713845244637
195131.21131.404982325662-0.194982325661954
196130.68131.210671424057-0.530671424057346
197130.46130.681827373632-0.221827373632181
198131.12130.4607638653130.65923613468695
199132.99131.1177299121921.87227008780818
200133.02132.9835528147260.0364471852744543
201133.39133.0198744936650.370125506334631
202134.07133.3887254682270.6812745317728
203135.6134.0676540226981.53234597730196
204135.66135.5947233476170.0652766523828916
205135.53135.659775219038-0.129775219037697
206135.82135.5304468825770.289553117423253
207136.9135.8190029202481.08099707975202
208137.97136.8962775731451.0737224268548
209138.09137.9663026235030.123697376497319
210136.91138.089574046549-1.17957404654948
211134.76136.914061877863-2.15406187786292
212135.13134.7674175387990.362582461200617
213134.66135.128751442797-0.468751442796702
214132.95134.661614151409-1.71161415140853
215132.25132.955893964564-0.705893964564382
216134.3132.2524307546242.04756924537583
217134.3134.2929491699020.00705083009827945
218134.76134.2999757203790.460024279620882
219134.81134.7584159006860.0515840993138852
220134.51134.809822369514-0.299822369514089
221135.11134.5110324420490.598967557951056
222134.32135.107937447784-0.78793744778352
223133.51134.322713272376-0.81271327237647
224134.02133.5127985882360.507201411764186
225132.76134.018253445646-1.25825344564635
226133.39132.7643328113500.625667188650198
227132.05133.387845507274-1.33784550727393
228131.87132.054606887601-0.184606887601404
229133.03131.8706356961081.15936430389235
230132.57133.026007714637-0.456007714636655
231132.1132.571570268223-0.471570268222507
232130.7132.101623858069-1.40162385806886
233129.2130.704826509144-1.50482650914358
234129.77129.2051818887530.564818111247149
235131.02129.7680550418271.25194495817314
236131.55131.0156889120050.534311087994922
237133.17131.548160093141.62183990686006
238133.08133.164415174160-0.084415174160398
239133.24133.0802906846990.159709315300546
240130.74133.239450038991-2.49945003899143
241129.91130.748606887217-0.838606887217082
242130.03129.9128877532200.117112246780238
243131.13130.0295967225251.10040327747467
244129.55131.126210747663-1.57621074766257
245130.22129.5554277012640.664572298736175
246130.61130.2177115370450.392288462955293
247129.27130.608649149811-1.33864914981115
248129.68129.2746096549540.405390345045532
249130.1129.6786040333180.421395966682354
250130.83130.0985489177610.731451082239062
251130.95130.8274812391240.122518760875948
252131.73130.9495781051270.78042189487303
253131.86131.7273126075230.132687392476811
254132.44131.8595430893180.580456910682074
255132.35132.438001189427-0.0880011894270183
256133.16132.3503030331880.809696966812481
257133.62133.1572117984500.462788201550211
258132.54133.618406383087-1.07840638308670
259132.69132.5437135057590.146286494241309
260133.5132.6894962606420.810503739357728
261133.36133.497209020319-0.137209020318522
262134.23133.3604724809640.869527519036325
263132.41134.227005771201-1.81700577120097
264133.02132.4162568819150.60374311808539
265132.88133.017921003083-0.137921003082937
266130.76132.880474932685-2.12047493268514
267130.33130.767301881737-0.437301881736971
268129.79130.331505854455-0.541505854454869
269128.65129.791864682128-1.14186468212765
270129.14128.6539320251990.486067974801273
271127.35129.138326218899-1.78832621889867
272127.74127.3561581235200.383841876479522
273126.31127.738678235736-1.42867823573646
274125.95126.314919671229-0.364919671228719
275126.36125.9512566054150.408743394584988
276126.15126.35859248705-0.208592487049927
277125.6126.150718290817-0.550718290816931
278126.2125.6018964052670.598103594733459
279126.73126.1979404228520.532059577148445
280125.68126.728167846245-1.04816784624543
281122.49125.683609378982-3.19360937898198
282122.07122.500997233516-0.430997233515953
283123.4122.0714841443201.32851585567951
284123.01123.395425239170-0.385425239169606
285123.03123.0113272165930.0186727834073821
286122.33123.029935700039-0.699935700038694
287122.42122.3324102372660.0875897627336286
288122.68122.4196983835650.260301616434603
289124.69122.6791036481552.01089635184545
290123.3124.683075453466-1.38307545346555
291124.17123.3047626374820.865237362517774
292124.38124.1670205444080.212979455591821
293123.19124.379266602602-1.18926660260247
294122.16123.1940952543-1.03409525429993
295120.66122.163560919837-1.50356091983701
296120.92120.6651775306800.254822469319592
297120.67120.919122515666-0.249122515665604
298120.68120.6708578564730.0091421435267307
299121.1120.6799685189150.420031481084635
300120.86121.098553616384-0.238553616384038
301121.48120.8608214623370.61917853766252
302123.48121.4778678510242.00213214897587
303121.72123.473105633107-1.75310563310686
304123.16121.7260368409961.43396315900364
305123.84123.1550621300720.684937869927566
306124.57123.8376414079480.732358592052321
307124.3124.567478114103-0.267478114102730
308124.22124.300921064204-0.0809210642042046
309124.43124.2202786526880.209721347311529
310123.33124.429277821939-1.09927782193877
311122.86123.333785376817-0.473785376817318
312121.25122.861631485823-1.61163148582278
313122.16121.2555496730150.904450326984914
314122.62122.1568855140790.463114485921452
315123.44122.6184052595220.821594740477593
316124123.4371708283190.562829171681415
317124.75123.9980618907650.751938109235056
318124.8124.7474106917920.0525893082075726
319125.93124.7998189080651.13018109193524
320126.28125.9261082073890.353891792610924
321126.04126.278781369222-0.238781369221812
322125.04126.040822246607-1.0008222466072
323123.76125.043446343822-1.28344634382225
324125.34123.7644195634071.5755804365928
325126.99125.3345744692201.65542553077981
326126.34126.984299521648-0.644299521647795
327127.42126.3422186533961.07778134660413
328126.18127.416288646562-1.23628864656217
329125.3126.184257175292-0.884257175291651
330123.5125.303044950553-1.80304495055307
331125.32123.5062088076561.81379119234447
332124.65125.313754187528-0.66375418752753
333124.03124.652285645779-0.622285645779186
334125.11124.0321428483411.07785715165878
335125.46125.1062883855270.353711614473468
336124.7125.458781989667-0.758781989667455
337124.48124.702612875195-0.222612875194756
338124.76124.4807665701970.279233429802574
339125.81124.7590384562201.05096154377965
340124.95125.806381000886-0.856381000885932
341123.66124.952948958601-1.29294895860069
342122.66123.664452285779-1.00445228577907
343119.34122.663458843907-3.32345884390716
344117.84119.351444371759-1.51144437175932
345120.97117.8452046774453.12479532255509
346117.38120.959239728541-3.57923972854105
347118.06117.3923251564090.667674843591271
348116.99118.057700853393-1.06770085339303
349115.55116.993676641134-1.44367664113439
350114.17115.554971318424-1.38497131842378
351115.32114.1747691659171.14523083408325
352112.49115.316056383415-2.82605638341528
353111.93112.499731560216-0.5697315602159
354112.08111.9319618776960.148038122304385
355111.63112.079490228889-0.449490228889303
356109.53111.631547825179-2.10154782517948
357111.35109.5372367060071.81276329399250
358110.79111.343757727108-0.553757727108263
359113.06110.7919068716032.26809312839687
360112.62113.052189793175-0.432189793174743
361110.65112.621488250914-1.97148825091448
362112.36110.656788844251.70321115574998
363113.74112.3541349712551.38586502874460
364111.73113.735227756581-2.00522775658068
365109.86111.736905026656-1.87690502665635
366109.32109.866463145744-0.5464631457439
367109.99109.3218817526220.668118247378288
368109.84109.987699326527-0.147699326526578
369111.13109.8405086044631.28949139553676
370112.43111.1255596203821.30444037961777
371111.77112.42550814337-0.655508143370113
372112.15111.7722572504240.377742749576186
373112.89112.1486992381560.741300761844386
374112.12112.887447321630-0.767447321630115
375113.1112.1226427143730.977357285627122
376111.09113.096634458062-2.00663445806198
377110.76111.096909870650-0.336909870650331
378109.59110.761160153319-1.17116015331924
379109.99109.5940329045170.395967095482803
380110.25109.9886364823940.261363517605602
381108.31110.249099991485-1.93909999148468
382108.79108.3166773148770.473322685123151
383108.14108.788370107462-0.648370107461815
384109.88108.1422326705091.73776732949138
385109.93109.8740159766420.0559840233575954
386110.46109.9298072183210.530192781678949
387109.56110.458174274579-0.898174274578793
388111.49109.5630928742571.92690712574287
389111.85111.4833646714080.366635328592409
390111.35111.848737486698-0.498737486697564
391110.95111.351717408723-0.401717408722689
392112.49110.9513833188811.53861668111941
393113.11112.4847017543710.625298245629281
394112.54113.107846777734-0.56784677773382
395112.84112.5419553874240.298044612576248
396111.5112.838973679679-1.3389736796791
397111.52111.5046107724770.0153892275229168
398111.57111.5199470070040.0500529929958873
399112.48111.5698276418980.910172358102344
400112.31112.476865810193-0.166865810193414
401113.79112.3105746044881.47942539551249
402114.01113.7849055802970.225094419702970
403113.64114.009224884573-0.369224884573271
404112.62113.641271430471-1.02127143047058
405113.27112.6235167608410.646483239159423
406113.51113.2677738269460.242226173054220
407112.92113.509165891168-0.589165891168065
408113.66112.9220288000550.737971199944653
409113.14113.657458787018-0.51745878701783
410113.48113.1417818757530.338218124247391
411113.23113.478835341693-0.248835341693265
412110.56113.230856867586-2.67085686758614
413109.5110.569197128758-1.06919712875778
414109.78109.5036817935770.276318206422829
415109.49109.779048494828-0.289048494828222
416109.66109.4909953420780.169004657922173
417109.93109.6594180303640.270581969636211
418109.82109.929068247631-0.109068247630773
419108.54109.820375577864-1.28037557786379
420108.23108.544408989187-0.314408989186518
421106.19108.231082671255-2.04108267125478
422106.49106.1970284935000.292971506500166
423107.15106.4889911489830.6610088510172
424107.74107.1477238078210.592276192178844
425107.54107.737960489585-0.197960489584531
426107.07107.540681679402-0.470681679401764
427107.54107.0716207982020.468379201797788
428107.81107.5383871304080.271612869592033
429108.38107.8090646977140.570935302286017
430108.42108.3780339772040.041966022796359
431106.86108.419855489480-1.55985548947987
432106.41106.865371381729-0.45537138172935
433106.46106.4115680770020.0484319229977501
434106.84106.4598332240720.380166775927691
435107.69106.8386908909910.851309109009193
436107.04107.687068506522-0.647068506521904
437111.04107.0422281884303.99777181157036
438111.93111.0262336231710.903766376828898
439111.98111.9268878692690.0531121307305966
440112.07111.9798171077190.0901828922810637
441112.05112.069689454092-0.0196894540916333
442113.14112.0500678008791.08993219912057
443112.49113.136246804951-0.646246804950806
444113.2112.492225358890.707774641109921
445113.52113.1975627692430.322437230757203
446113.22113.518889683396-0.298889683395771
447113.85113.2210292303330.628970769667248
448113.68113.847834131352-0.167834131351725
449114.26113.6805779389130.579422061086561
450114.1114.258004752944-0.158004752944436
451114.8114.1005440913270.699455908673059
452114.98114.7975914149010.182408585098869
453115.1114.9793718737740.120628126225711
454114.21115.099584615551-0.889584615550845
455114.24114.2130632956600.0269367043403008
456113.35114.239907243124-0.889907243124426
457114.23113.3530644066320.876935593368259
458114.43114.2269802614050.203019738594890
459114.28114.429300899012-0.149300899011521
460113114.280514119498-1.28051411949795
461113.16113.0044094662560.155590533743649
462112.59113.159464222067-0.569464222066813
463113.65112.5919609571131.05803904288663
464113.18113.64635662943-0.466356629429953
465113.21113.1816059048390.0283940951609907
466113.11113.209902224581-0.099902224581058
467112.78113.110344014550-0.330344014549709
468112.57112.781137543712-0.211137543712312
469111.87112.570727054751-0.700727054751098
470111.94111.8724129623060.0675870376938406
471113.18111.9397672631971.24023273680278
472113.67113.1757292431850.494270756815311
473115.15113.6682979725171.48170202748294
474114.41115.144897740687-0.734897740686606
475112.88114.412530629487-1.53253062948708
476112.44112.885277288235-0.445277288234976
477113.48112.4415333178661.03846668213393
478112.78113.476424027097-0.69642402709701
479112.59112.782398144777-0.192398144777030
480113.31112.5906625253980.719337474601602
481113.21113.307522952482-0.0975229524822225
482112.5113.210335821497-0.710335821496727
483113.72112.5024460502141.21755394978635
484114.09113.7158073378690.374192662130881
485113.97114.088711462926-0.118711462925774
486112.5113.970408784395-1.47040878439530
487111.28112.505063370891-1.22506337089074
488111.35111.2842185209160.0657814790843787
489110.92111.349773480661-0.429773480660685
490110.73110.921479930312-0.191479930312354
491109110.730659363515-1.7306593635155


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
492109.005959546989106.671782214455111.340136879522
493109.005959546989105.710612965732112.301306128245
494109.005959546989104.972321689981113.039597403997
495109.005959546989104.349656331736113.662262762242
496109.005959546989103.800953792596114.210965301381