Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[60])
48	1.53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	1.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	2.11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	1.53	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	1.38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	1.54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	1.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
55	1.29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
56	1.33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
57	1.47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
58	1.47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
59	1.54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
60	1.59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	1.5	1.563	1.4452	1.6808	0.1474	0.3266	0.9699	0.3266
62	2	2.1815	2.059	2.3041	0.0018	1	0.8737	1
63	1.51	1.598	1.471	1.725	0.0873	0	0.8529	0.5491
64	1.4	1.4235	1.2922	1.5547	0.3631	0.0981	0.7418	0.0064
65	1.62	1.595	1.4598	1.7302	0.3584	0.9976	0.7872	0.5287
66	1.44	1.4004	1.2614	1.5394	0.2883	0.001	0.7614	0.0038
67	1.29	1.371	1.2284	1.5135	0.1328	0.1713	0.8672	0.0013
68	1.28	1.3546	1.2086	1.5006	0.1582	0.8072	0.6295	8e-04
69	1.4	1.518	1.3688	1.6673	0.0605	0.9991	0.736	0.1723
70	1.39	1.5146	1.3623	1.6669	0.0544	0.9298	0.717	0.1659
71	1.46	1.5672	1.412	1.7225	0.0879	0.9874	0.6345	0.387
72	1.49	1.6487	1.4906	1.8069	0.0245	0.9904	0.7668	0.7668

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
61	0.0385	-0.0403	0	0.004	0	0
62	0.0287	-0.0832	0.0618	0.033	0.0185	0.1359
63	0.0406	-0.0551	0.0595	0.0077	0.0149	0.122
64	0.047	-0.0165	0.0488	6e-04	0.0113	0.1063
65	0.0433	0.0157	0.0421	6e-04	0.0092	0.0958
66	0.0506	0.0283	0.0398	0.0016	0.0079	0.0889
67	0.0531	-0.0591	0.0426	0.0066	0.0077	0.0878
68	0.055	-0.0551	0.0441	0.0056	0.0074	0.0863
69	0.0502	-0.0778	0.0479	0.0139	0.0082	0.0903
70	0.0513	-0.0823	0.0513	0.0155	0.0089	0.0943
71	0.0505	-0.0684	0.0529	0.0115	0.0091	0.0956
72	0.0489	-0.0963	0.0565	0.0252	0.0105	0.1023