Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[28])
16	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	1.71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	1.71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	1.71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	1.71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	1.72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	1.72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	1.72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	1.73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	1.73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	1.73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	1.74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	1.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	1.75	1.7491	1.7413	1.7569	0.411	0.411	1	0.411
30	1.76	1.7518	1.7436	1.76	0.0251	0.668	1	0.668
31	1.76	1.755	1.7466	1.7635	0.1237	0.1237	1	0.8788
32	1.77	1.7591	1.7506	1.7675	0.0056	0.4136	1	0.982
33	1.77	1.7625	1.7539	1.7712	0.0453	0.0453	1	0.9977
34	1.78	1.7665	1.7578	1.7752	0.0012	0.2139	1	0.9999
35	1.79	1.77	1.7611	1.7789	0	0.0137	1	1
36	1.8	1.7739	1.7649	1.7829	0	2e-04	1	1
37	1.8	1.7775	1.7683	1.7866	0	0	1	1
38	1.81	1.7813	1.7721	1.7905	0	0	1	1
39	1.81	1.7849	1.7755	1.7943	0	0	1	1
40	1.81	1.7887	1.7792	1.7982	0	0	1	1
41	1.81	1.7924	1.7827	1.802	2e-04	2e-04	1	1
42	1.82	1.7962	1.7863	1.806	0	0.0028	1	1
43	1.82	1.7998	1.7898	1.8098	0	0	1	1
44	1.82	1.8036	1.7935	1.8137	7e-04	7e-04	1	1
45	1.83	1.8072	1.797	1.8175	0	0.0076	1	1
46	1.83	1.811	1.8006	1.8214	2e-04	2e-04	1	1
47	1.83	1.8147	1.8041	1.8253	0.0023	0.0023	1	1
48	1.84	1.8184	1.8077	1.8292	0	0.0177	0.9996	1
49	1.84	1.8221	1.8112	1.8331	7e-04	7e-04	1	1
50	1.85	1.8259	1.8148	1.837	0	0.0063	0.9975	1
51	1.85	1.8296	1.8183	1.8409	2e-04	2e-04	0.9997	1
52	1.86	1.8333	1.8219	1.8448	0	0.0021	1	1
53	1.86	1.837	1.8254	1.8486	1e-04	1e-04	1	1
54	1.86	1.8407	1.8289	1.8525	7e-04	7e-04	0.9997	1
55	1.86	1.8444	1.8324	1.8564	0.0055	0.0055	1	1
56	1.86	1.8482	1.836	1.8603	0.0284	0.0284	1	1

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
29	0.0023	5e-04	0	0	0	0
30	0.0024	0.0047	0.0026	1e-04	0	0.0058
31	0.0025	0.0028	0.0027	0	0	0.0056
32	0.0025	0.0062	0.0036	1e-04	1e-04	0.0073
33	0.0025	0.0042	0.0037	1e-04	1e-04	0.0073
34	0.0025	0.0077	0.0044	2e-04	1e-04	0.0087
35	0.0026	0.0113	0.0053	4e-04	1e-04	0.011
36	0.0026	0.0147	0.0065	7e-04	2e-04	0.0138
37	0.0026	0.0127	0.0072	5e-04	2e-04	0.0151
38	0.0026	0.0161	0.0081	8e-04	3e-04	0.0169
39	0.0027	0.0141	0.0086	6e-04	3e-04	0.0178
40	0.0027	0.0119	0.0089	5e-04	3e-04	0.0181
41	0.0028	0.0098	0.009	3e-04	3e-04	0.0181
42	0.0028	0.0133	0.0093	6e-04	3e-04	0.0186
43	0.0028	0.0112	0.0094	4e-04	3e-04	0.0187
44	0.0029	0.0091	0.0094	3e-04	3e-04	0.0185
45	0.0029	0.0126	0.0096	5e-04	4e-04	0.0188
46	0.0029	0.0105	0.0096	4e-04	4e-04	0.0188
47	0.003	0.0084	0.0096	2e-04	3e-04	0.0187
48	0.003	0.0119	0.0097	5e-04	4e-04	0.0188
49	0.0031	0.0098	0.0097	3e-04	4e-04	0.0188
50	0.0031	0.0132	0.0099	6e-04	4e-04	0.019
51	0.0031	0.0112	0.0099	4e-04	4e-04	0.0191
52	0.0032	0.0146	0.0101	7e-04	4e-04	0.0195
53	0.0032	0.0125	0.0102	5e-04	4e-04	0.0196
54	0.0033	0.0105	0.0102	4e-04	4e-04	0.0196
55	0.0033	0.0084	0.0101	2e-04	4e-04	0.0195
56	0.0034	0.0064	0.01	1e-04	4e-04	0.0193