Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.187589033110375 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 103.44 | 103.804468482906 | -0.364468482906020 |
14 | 103.32 | 103.334692599068 | -0.0146925990675868 |
15 | 103.3 | 103.314275932401 | -0.0142759324009347 |
16 | 103.26 | 103.275942599068 | -0.0159425990675999 |
17 | 103.14 | 103.156359265734 | -0.0163592657342662 |
18 | 103.11 | 103.127192599068 | -0.0171925990675845 |
19 | 102.91 | 103.096359265734 | -0.186359265734282 |
20 | 103.23 | 103.205525932401 | 0.0244740675990585 |
21 | 103.23 | 103.203442599068 | 0.0265574009324183 |
22 | 103.14 | 103.155109265734 | -0.0151092657342673 |
23 | 102.91 | 102.862192599068 | 0.0478074009323848 |
24 | 102.42 | 102.463442599068 | -0.0434425990675891 |
25 | 102.1 | 102.326775932401 | -0.226775932400912 |
26 | 102.07 | 101.994692599068 | 0.0753074009324166 |
27 | 102.06 | 102.064275932401 | -0.00427593240092961 |
28 | 101.98 | 102.035942599068 | -0.0559425990676061 |
29 | 101.83 | 101.876359265734 | -0.0463592657342673 |
30 | 101.75 | 101.817192599068 | -0.0671925990675817 |
31 | 101.56 | 101.736359265734 | -0.176359265734277 |
32 | 101.66 | 101.855525932401 | -0.195525932400955 |
33 | 101.65 | 101.633442599068 | 0.0165574009324274 |
34 | 101.61 | 101.575109265734 | 0.0348907342657299 |
35 | 101.52 | 101.332192599068 | 0.187807400932385 |
36 | 101.31 | 101.073442599068 | 0.236557400932412 |
37 | 101.19 | 101.216775932401 | -0.0267759324009091 |
38 | 101.11 | 101.084692599068 | 0.0253074009324195 |
39 | 101.1 | 101.104275932401 | -0.00427593240094382 |
40 | 101.07 | 101.075942599068 | -0.00594259906760897 |
41 | 100.98 | 100.966359265734 | 0.0136407342657492 |
42 | 100.93 | 100.967192599068 | -0.0371925990675805 |
43 | 100.92 | 100.916359265734 | 0.00364073426571565 |
44 | 101.02 | 101.215525932401 | -0.195525932400955 |
45 | 101.01 | 100.993442599068 | 0.0165574009324274 |
46 | 100.97 | 100.935109265734 | 0.0348907342657299 |
47 | 100.89 | 100.692192599068 | 0.197807400932390 |
48 | 100.62 | 100.443442599068 | 0.176557400932410 |
49 | 100.53 | 100.526775932401 | 0.00322406759909200 |
50 | 100.48 | 100.424692599068 | 0.0553074009324206 |
51 | 100.48 | 100.474275932401 | 0.0057240675990613 |
52 | 100.47 | 100.455942599068 | 0.0140574009323871 |
53 | 100.52 | 100.366359265734 | 0.153640734265736 |
54 | 100.49 | 100.507192599068 | -0.0171925990675845 |
55 | 100.47 | 100.476359265734 | -0.00635926573427525 |
56 | 100.44 | 100.765525932401 | -0.32552593240095 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
57 | 100.413442599068 | 100.174772453750 | 100.652112744386 |
58 | 100.338551864802 | 100.001021308360 | 100.676082421244 |
59 | 100.060744463869 | 99.6473556459288 | 100.47413328181 |
60 | 99.614187062937 | 99.136846772301 | 100.091527353573 |
61 | 99.520962995338 | 98.9872803262072 | 100.054645664469 |
62 | 99.4156555944055 | 98.8310355215405 | 100.000275667271 |
63 | 99.4099315268065 | 98.7784696769194 | 100.041393376694 |
64 | 99.385874125874 | 98.7108130129895 | 100.060935238759 |
65 | 99.2822333916083 | 98.5662229556544 | 99.9982438275623 |
66 | 99.269425990676 | 98.5146847219877 | 100.024167259364 |
67 | 99.2557852564102 | 98.4642059357308 | 100.047364577090 |
68 | 99.5513111888111 | 98.72453355293 | 100.378088824692 |