Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.938027433409238 |
beta | 0.0620541839691078 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 106.19 | 105.613982371795 | 0.576017628205136 |
14 | 106.2 | 106.190138082228 | 0.00986191777190015 |
15 | 106.09 | 106.108714919066 | -0.0187149190664542 |
16 | 106.23 | 106.24564653112 | -0.0156465311200549 |
17 | 106.23 | 106.230795613716 | -0.00079561371580894 |
18 | 106.22 | 106.223578952746 | -0.00357895274564157 |
19 | 106.22 | 106.357293117842 | -0.137293117841750 |
20 | 106.61 | 106.280921431030 | 0.329078568970289 |
21 | 106.95 | 107.221174359354 | -0.271174359353694 |
22 | 107.74 | 107.492172247262 | 0.247827752737777 |
23 | 107.8 | 107.813600709393 | -0.0136007093935007 |
24 | 107.8 | 107.959843758246 | -0.159843758246112 |
25 | 107.2 | 107.875716503113 | -0.675716503112625 |
26 | 107.56 | 107.201320585597 | 0.358679414403014 |
27 | 107.72 | 107.424326425275 | 0.295673574724916 |
28 | 108.14 | 107.853652917905 | 0.286347082095475 |
29 | 108.16 | 108.137878940018 | 0.0221210599816288 |
30 | 108.16 | 108.168198498953 | -0.00819849895314917 |
31 | 108.16 | 108.305236137954 | -0.145236137954029 |
32 | 108.1 | 108.265796924267 | -0.165796924267383 |
33 | 108.95 | 108.691318869248 | 0.258681130752166 |
34 | 110.49 | 109.509016763138 | 0.980983236862315 |
35 | 110.72 | 110.562156817856 | 0.157843182143907 |
36 | 110.82 | 110.930328407856 | -0.110328407855775 |
37 | 110.82 | 110.933732692014 | -0.113732692013883 |
38 | 110.75 | 110.956364166402 | -0.206364166401798 |
39 | 110.71 | 110.718315628215 | -0.00831562821501564 |
40 | 110.86 | 110.917095794235 | -0.0570957942349679 |
41 | 110.84 | 110.897978779773 | -0.0579787797726681 |
42 | 110.84 | 110.881811585024 | -0.0418115850237086 |
43 | 110.84 | 111.007398159038 | -0.167398159037560 |
44 | 110.92 | 110.973177644372 | -0.0531776443720844 |
45 | 111.46 | 111.564482447818 | -0.104482447818015 |
46 | 112.46 | 112.098983530486 | 0.361016469514482 |
47 | 113.04 | 112.496175968430 | 0.543824031570168 |
48 | 113.15 | 113.208866599562 | -0.0588665995624922 |
49 | 113.15 | 113.262405712819 | -0.112405712818855 |
50 | 113.21 | 113.282691774758 | -0.0726917747575726 |
51 | 113.37 | 113.192236511128 | 0.177763488871747 |
52 | 113.47 | 113.583303680854 | -0.113303680854344 |
53 | 113.71 | 113.528898346789 | 0.181101653211215 |
54 | 113.71 | 113.769404540243 | -0.059404540242511 |
55 | 113.71 | 113.901088918017 | -0.191088918017215 |
56 | 113.8 | 113.880728756492 | -0.0807287564916521 |
57 | 115.46 | 114.470411057479 | 0.989588942521038 |
58 | 117 | 116.151114251901 | 0.848885748098681 |
59 | 117.94 | 117.136753633781 | 0.803246366219327 |
60 | 118.08 | 118.190022961225 | -0.110022961224772 |
61 | 118.08 | 118.323864025975 | -0.243864025974972 |
62 | 118.47 | 118.347253742122 | 0.122746257877736 |
63 | 118.49 | 118.590976213751 | -0.100976213751323 |
64 | 118.45 | 118.821644832206 | -0.371644832205973 |
65 | 118.54 | 118.647220923428 | -0.107220923428486 |
66 | 118.55 | 118.689652470034 | -0.139652470033809 |
67 | 118.55 | 118.820514781338 | -0.270514781337923 |
68 | 118.55 | 118.810480533070 | -0.260480533069696 |
69 | 119.04 | 119.365408234687 | -0.325408234687316 |
70 | 121.37 | 119.794871378746 | 1.57512862125446 |
71 | 122 | 121.492174751962 | 0.507825248037676 |
72 | 122.14 | 122.227793936455 | -0.0877939364546307 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 122.391546495267 | 121.649783695245 | 123.13330929529 |
74 | 122.697956637059 | 121.650918023435 | 123.744995250682 |
75 | 122.837079715853 | 121.530157807041 | 124.144001624664 |
76 | 123.175975060776 | 121.630269527286 | 124.721680594266 |
77 | 123.418466423437 | 121.645474457061 | 125.191458389814 |
78 | 123.617620638530 | 121.623966175420 | 125.611275101641 |
79 | 123.937656256187 | 121.727134393499 | 126.148178118876 |
80 | 124.264025740627 | 121.838644251646 | 126.689407229608 |
81 | 125.156461378494 | 122.517031137683 | 127.795891619305 |
82 | 126.125082841271 | 123.27157880495 | 128.978586877592 |
83 | 126.303178231142 | 123.234972936919 | 129.371383525365 |
84 | 126.520420996310 | 123.236442339935 | 129.804399652685 |