| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0767755995740817 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 358 | 363 | -5 |
| 4 | 357 | 350.61612200213 | 6.3838779978704 |
| 5 | 349 | 350.106248063024 | -1.10624806302388 |
| 6 | 348 | 342.021315204708 | 5.97868479529245 |
| 7 | 369 | 341.480332314531 | 27.5196676854694 |
| 8 | 381 | 364.593171301162 | 16.406828698838 |
| 9 | 368 | 377.852815411625 | -9.85281541162453 |
| 10 | 361 | 364.096359600904 | -3.09635960090429 |
| 11 | 351 | 356.858634736048 | -5.85863473604792 |
| 12 | 351 | 346.408834541502 | 4.5911654584977 |
| 13 | 358 | 346.761324022322 | 11.2386759776778 |
| 14 | 354 | 354.624180108927 | -0.624180108927305 |
| 15 | 347 | 350.576258306822 | -3.57625830682218 |
| 16 | 345 | 343.301688931084 | 1.69831106891587 |
| 17 | 343 | 341.432077781663 | 1.56792221833655 |
| 18 | 340 | 339.552455950062 | 0.447544049938244 |
| 19 | 362 | 336.586816412832 | 25.4131835871684 |
| 20 | 370 | 360.537928819823 | 9.46207118017736 |
| 21 | 373 | 369.264385007893 | 3.7356149921066 |
| 22 | 371 | 372.55118908869 | -1.55118908869031 |
| 23 | 354 | 370.432095616353 | -16.4320956163534 |
| 24 | 357 | 352.170511623149 | 4.8294883768508 |
| 25 | 363 | 355.541298488918 | 7.45870151108204 |
| 26 | 364 | 362.113944769475 | 1.88605523052462 |
| 27 | 363 | 363.258747790629 | -0.258747790628775 |
| 28 | 358 | 362.238882273865 | -4.23888227386476 |
| 29 | 357 | 356.913439545765 | 0.0865604542351548 |
| 30 | 357 | 355.920085276538 | 1.07991472346185 |
| 31 | 380 | 356.002996376921 | 23.9970036230792 |
| 32 | 378 | 380.845380718064 | -2.84538071806412 |
| 33 | 376 | 378.626924907418 | -2.62692490741824 |
| 34 | 380 | 376.425241172615 | 3.57475882738493 |
| 35 | 379 | 380.69969542492 | -1.69969542492032 |
| 36 | 384 | 379.569200289579 | 4.43079971042124 |
| 37 | 392 | 384.909377593939 | 7.09062240606102 |
| 38 | 394 | 393.453764380518 | 0.546235619482275 |
| 39 | 392 | 395.495701947712 | -3.49570194771223 |
| 40 | 396 | 393.227317334744 | 2.77268266525567 |
| 41 | 392 | 397.440191708798 | -5.44019170879801 |
| 42 | 396 | 393.022517728557 | 2.97748227144291 |
| 43 | 419 | 397.251115715168 | 21.7488842848317 |
| 44 | 421 | 421.920899346204 | -0.920899346203612 |
| 45 | 420 | 423.850196746751 | -3.85019674675141 |
| 46 | 418 | 422.554595583041 | -4.55459558304142 |
| 47 | 410 | 420.204913776336 | -10.204913776336 |
| 48 | 418 | 411.421425402556 | 6.57857459744406 |
| 49 | 426 | 419.926499411618 | 6.07350058838244 |
| 50 | 428 | 428.392796060804 | -0.39279606080413 |
| 51 | 430 | 430.362638907726 | -0.362638907725568 |
| 52 | 424 | 432.334797088156 | -8.33479708815605 |
| 53 | 423 | 425.694888044385 | -2.69488804438453 |
| 54 | 427 | 424.487986398992 | 2.51201360100811 |
| 55 | 441 | 428.680847749348 | 12.3191522506525 |
| 56 | 449 | 443.626658049636 | 5.37334195036419 |
| 57 | 452 | 452.039199599592 | -0.0391995995915408 |
| 58 | 462 | 455.03619002683 | 6.96380997317016 |
| 59 | 455 | 465.57084071284 | -10.57084071284 |
| 60 | 461 | 457.75925807911 | 3.24074192089046 |
| 61 | 461 | 464.008067983151 | -3.0080679831508 |
| 62 | 463 | 463.777121760185 | -0.777121760184798 |
| 63 | 462 | 465.717457771105 | -3.71745777110453 |
| 64 | 456 | 464.432047721837 | -8.43204772183668 |
| 65 | 455 | 457.784672202355 | -2.78467220235535 |
| 66 | 456 | 456.570877324402 | -0.570877324402261 |
| 67 | 472 | 457.527047875538 | 14.472952124462 |
| 68 | 472 | 474.638217452501 | -2.63821745250056 |
| 69 | 471 | 474.435666725778 | -3.43566672577805 |
| 70 | 465 | 473.17189135297 | -8.17189135296974 |
| 71 | 459 | 466.544489494691 | -7.54448949469122 |
| 72 | 465 | 459.965256790256 | 5.03474320974408 |
| 73 | 468 | 466.351802218886 | 1.64819778111445 |
| 74 | 467 | 469.478343591747 | -2.47834359174732 |
| 75 | 463 | 468.28806727654 | -5.28806727654029 |
| 76 | 460 | 463.882072740796 | -3.88207274079588 |
| 77 | 462 | 460.584024278531 | 1.41597572146895 |
| 78 | 461 | 462.692736663529 | -1.69273666352916 |
| 79 | 476 | 461.562775791266 | 14.4372242087343 |
| 80 | 476 | 477.671202336077 | -1.6712023360767 |
| 81 | 471 | 477.542894774715 | -6.5428947747148 |
| 82 | 453 | 472.040560105436 | -19.040560105436 |
| 83 | 443 | 452.578709687115 | -9.57870968711478 |
| 84 | 442 | 441.84329850774 | 0.156701492259515 |
| 85 | 444 | 440.855329358763 | 3.14467064123716 |
| 86 | 438 | 443.096763332707 | -5.09676333270687 |
| 87 | 427 | 436.705456271951 | -9.7054562719511 |
| 88 | 424 | 424.960314047532 | -0.960314047531995 |
| 89 | 416 | 421.886585360753 | -5.88658536075332 |
| 90 | 406 | 413.434639240237 | -7.43463924023746 |
| 91 | 431 | 402.863840354951 | 28.1361596450487 |
| 92 | 434 | 430.024010881412 | 3.97598911858807 |
| 93 | 418 | 433.329269829892 | -15.3292698298916 |
| 94 | 412 | 416.152355947669 | -4.15235594766875 |
| 95 | 404 | 409.833556330142 | -5.8335563301415 |
| 96 | 409 | 401.385681545246 | 7.61431845475431 |
| 97 | 412 | 406.970275409957 | 5.02972459004252 |
| 98 | 406 | 410.35643553105 | -4.35643553105047 |
| 99 | 398 | 404.021967581148 | -6.02196758114826 |
| 100 | 397 | 395.55962740949 | 1.44037259051009 |
| 101 | 385 | 394.670212878736 | -9.67021287873638 |
| 102 | 390 | 381.927776486962 | 8.07222351303761 |
| 103 | 413 | 387.547526287072 | 25.4524737129282 |
| 104 | 413 | 412.501655217025 | 0.498344782974527 |
| 105 | 401 | 412.539915936533 | -11.539915936533 |
| 106 | 397 | 399.653931971471 | -2.65393197147114 |
| 107 | 397 | 395.450174753133 | 1.54982524686739 |
| 108 | 409 | 395.569163515696 | 13.4308364843041 |
| 109 | 419 | 408.60032403956 | 10.3996759604402 |
| 110 | 424 | 419.398765396799 | 4.60123460320125 |
| 111 | 428 | 424.752027942241 | 3.24797205775945 |
| 112 | 430 | 429.001392944375 | 0.998607055625087 |
| 113 | 424 | 431.078061599809 | -7.07806159980942 |
| 114 | 433 | 424.534639176662 | 8.46536082333824 |
| 115 | 456 | 434.184572329485 | 21.8154276705155 |
| 116 | 459 | 458.859464868853 | 0.140535131146635 |
| 117 | 446 | 461.870254537808 | -15.8702545378084 |
| 118 | 441 | 447.651806230275 | -6.65180623027481 |
| 119 | 439 | 442.141109818695 | -3.14110981869487 |
| 120 | 454 | 439.899949229037 | 14.1000507709635 |
| 121 | 460 | 455.982489081002 | 4.01751091899774 |
| 122 | 457 | 462.290935890604 | -5.29093589060369 |
| 123 | 451 | 458.884721115295 | -7.88472111529461 |
| 124 | 444 | 452.279366924193 | -8.27936692419343 |
| 125 | 437 | 444.643713564495 | -7.64371356449465 |
| 126 | 443 | 437.056862872608 | 5.94313712739199 |
| 127 | 471 | 443.513150788915 | 27.4868492110855 |
| 128 | 469 | 473.623470117498 | -4.62347011749802 |
| 129 | 454 | 471.268500427114 | -17.2685004271142 |
| 130 | 444 | 454.942700953077 | -10.9427009530772 |
| 131 | 436 | 444.102568526445 | -8.10256852644488 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 132 | 435.480488969737 | 417.335462119549 | 453.625515819925 |
| 133 | 434.960977939474 | 408.296765647272 | 461.625190231676 |
| 134 | 434.441466909211 | 400.543147151057 | 468.339786667365 |
| 135 | 433.921955878948 | 393.33290533205 | 474.511006425846 |
| 136 | 433.402444848685 | 386.39195163814 | 480.41293805923 |
| 137 | 432.882933818422 | 379.586368691356 | 486.179498945488 |
| 138 | 432.363422788159 | 372.840615388385 | 491.886230187933 |
| 139 | 431.843911757896 | 366.10815177722 | 497.579671738572 |
| 140 | 431.324400727633 | 359.358562290774 | 503.290239164492 |
| 141 | 430.80488969737 | 352.571128986809 | 509.038650407931 |
| 142 | 430.285378667107 | 345.731314256543 | 514.839443077671 |
| 143 | 429.765867636844 | 338.828698056287 | 520.703037217401 |
