Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[476])
471	1.4018	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
472	1.4014	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
473	1.4244	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
474	1.4084	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
475	1.3917	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
476	1.3945	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
477	1.377	1.3945	1.3748	1.4139	0.0388	0.4986	0.2418	0.4986
478	1.37	1.3965	1.3686	1.4238	0.0289	0.9185	0.0226	0.5558
479	1.3711	1.3951	1.3609	1.4285	0.08	0.9291	0.2173	0.5133
480	1.3626	1.3936	1.3541	1.4322	0.0575	0.8738	0.5391	0.4825
481	1.3612	1.3939	1.3496	1.4369	0.0685	0.9226	0.4886	0.4886
482	1.3481	1.3939	1.3445	1.4417	0.0303	0.9098	0.7554	0.4897
483	1.3647	1.394	1.3401	1.4461	0.1348	0.958	0.8171	0.4931
484	1.3674	1.3939	1.3358	1.45	0.1768	0.8466	0.7876	0.4919
485	1.3647	1.3938	1.3317	1.4535	0.1698	0.8068	0.847	0.4908
486	1.3496	1.3938	1.328	1.457	0.0851	0.8168	0.8442	0.4916
487	1.3339	1.3938	1.3244	1.4603	0.0387	0.9038	0.9112	0.492
488	1.3321	1.3938	1.3209	1.4635	0.0411	0.9542	0.7939	0.4925
489	1.3225	1.3938	1.3176	1.4664	0.0271	0.9521	0.7621	0.4927
490	1.3146	1.3938	1.3145	1.4693	0.0199	0.968	0.7752	0.4929
491	1.2998	1.3938	1.3114	1.4721	0.0093	0.9764	0.866	0.4932

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
477	0.0071	-0.0125	0	3e-04	0	0
478	0.01	-0.0189	0.0157	7e-04	5e-04	0.0224
479	0.0122	-0.0172	0.0162	6e-04	5e-04	0.0229
480	0.0141	-0.0223	0.0177	0.001	6e-04	0.0252
481	0.0158	-0.0234	0.0189	0.0011	7e-04	0.0269
482	0.0175	-0.0328	0.0212	0.0021	0.001	0.0308
483	0.0191	-0.021	0.0212	9e-04	9e-04	0.0306
484	0.0205	-0.019	0.0209	7e-04	9e-04	0.0301
485	0.0219	-0.0209	0.0209	8e-04	9e-04	0.03
486	0.0231	-0.0317	0.022	0.002	0.001	0.0317
487	0.0243	-0.043	0.0239	0.0036	0.0012	0.0352
488	0.0255	-0.0443	0.0256	0.0038	0.0015	0.0382
489	0.0266	-0.0512	0.0276	0.0051	0.0017	0.0417
490	0.0276	-0.0568	0.0297	0.0063	0.0021	0.0454
491	0.0286	-0.0675	0.0322	0.0088	0.0025	0.0501