| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | ||||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | sar1 | sar2 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | -0.7012 | -0.3586 | -0.2358 | -0.2121 | -0.1384 | -0.5116 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0.0645 ) | (0.1184 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | -0.7115 | -0.353 | -0.2264 | -0.0853 | 0 | -0.6352 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0.2775 ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | -0.7147 | -0.353 | -0.2239 | 0 | 0 | -0.6811 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 10 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 11 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 0.558114162488688 |
| 3.04918901256191 |
| 6.88456095781543 |
| 43.5424800511233 |
| -15.3610535105023 |
| 11.719418350577 |
| -41.4975093803626 |
| -29.4147704807797 |
| 42.7791663055472 |
| -52.7353645720034 |
| 0.082640277581364 |
| 30.3083625240939 |
| -38.4841860191872 |
| -19.5749543044829 |
| -23.7492831825000 |
| -4.07041377652383 |
| 23.1708216552513 |
| -14.2120699507476 |
| -7.20295776996004 |
| 46.3389132076608 |
| -15.1968709927009 |
| 44.5947081668534 |
| 2.55150472256053 |
| -62.6265247197598 |
| -16.8667779948743 |
| 35.3221036016387 |
| 21.0128963006131 |
| 19.2045376015729 |
| 10.0715287313672 |
| -12.3379324326363 |
| 23.7250837242701 |
| 27.9493661781467 |
| -7.82696733072323 |
| 1.51787590408526 |
| -43.3396612631901 |
| -20.5556075265990 |
| 4.77620707655331 |
| 4.21881816185140 |
| 36.9651947976983 |
| 15.8459765378789 |
| -19.2695911698982 |
| 2.5815249066099 |
| 21.0847746262387 |
| -17.9736841938492 |
| -10.6102360253935 |
| -4.7431180327391 |
| -7.32854220143668 |
| 9.44599277914735 |
| -25.3509152340645 |
| 24.5508992419954 |
| 33.3864869070814 |
| -17.0401945471652 |
| -15.1551455983824 |
| -3.03575534417757 |
| 14.4699412910511 |
| 23.5227800709759 |
| 7.54966892171966 |
| 15.4731067344016 |
| 17.1163454574935 |
| 35.9960008050701 |
| -0.174916625962433 |
| -14.8264593684129 |
| -34.1036582688032 |
| -33.4437513342800 |
| -39.2729977846999 |
| 0.466994937132942 |
| 16.1027037325886 |
| 4.59589486048379 |
| -31.3955335779141 |
| 3.5192102996049 |
| -6.8479039252017 |
| 2.88912912224151 |
| -5.3286373868359 |
| 1.18361736060884 |
| 24.3580839592467 |
| -22.4979561485525 |
| 12.6829068261476 |
| -10.6934060274660 |
| 21.5698780304533 |
| -4.37032281547452 |
| 22.3697063046893 |
| 5.08051463474868 |
| -6.76583363831104 |
| -28.9090208488674 |
| -2.89078913791581 |
| 29.0699731463832 |
| -19.0564507125819 |
| 42.0120710289269 |
| 15.6150151639386 |
| -32.4178270117479 |
| -33.3088573437651 |
| -7.84602202731772 |
| 14.7171204846783 |
| 36.8037187708953 |
| 1.23991234543521 |
| -20.2370129544052 |
| -18.9834390645880 |
| -10.2260889771773 |
| 15.5921432528049 |
| 27.459202351316 |
| 24.0877454340059 |
| -28.8158241680150 |
| -9.99110648339158 |
| 9.65767217892192 |
| 9.9061817986193 |
| 30.8957124271159 |
| -0.632248911179113 |
| 30.4253861369169 |
| 36.4922247709454 |
| -27.5592757485167 |
| -24.1576483210842 |
| -43.7810398144639 |
| -12.1485916921085 |
| 0.956206324095468 |
| -22.6969608077361 |
| -39.2446398583091 |
| 1.09007299241495 |
| -17.5160048291072 |
| 45.6023199855153 |
| 6.36547051620219 |
| -9.4394134289446 |
| -12.8218562279275 |
| -43.2064112394585 |
| 21.3792025388811 |
| 39.1452970706012 |
| 13.6252468554970 |
| 21.2754328281184 |
| 5.05575622458804 |
| 14.0652734835693 |
| -3.30369863675014 |
| -40.2047503758708 |
| -13.7025104772051 |
| -32.2979898479114 |
| 64.582168001053 |
| -12.5812762502838 |
| -7.49349454902195 |
| 53.4354495948275 |
| -29.2666372965279 |
| 12.0996567842741 |
| -21.0751491029127 |
| 26.4616710380440 |
| 6.20577222841575 |
| 23.8017192917955 |
| 1.04698721681677 |
| -1.67705003683931 |
| -37.6082999607716 |
| -26.9199665053545 |
| -1.24356190268431 |
| 13.8993797383673 |
| -13.1180514088779 |
| -20.8962107219649 |
| -2.72122812216584 |
| -4.12632748112208 |
| -13.0786581688515 |
| 11.8083076089996 |
| 2.56438370403771 |
| -9.16589132876449 |
| 12.7092764602570 |
| 15.8440524956104 |
| 37.6507328635405 |
| -32.6162269977264 |
| -14.1140526403644 |
| 46.6806968082893 |
| -14.9195225067592 |
| -20.2492675833224 |
| 26.4468426563873 |
| -22.2655810664998 |
| 17.6739523964994 |
| 21.6116516249742 |
| -45.0627484772458 |
| 6.04016128202197 |
| 11.8694567285954 |
| 7.89964095840496 |
| -10.9322539577485 |
| -14.8200938842108 |
| 10.5766707244454 |
| 4.27606418637428 |
| 14.8346838449268 |
| -23.6965276782746 |
| -1.25267721188302 |
| -9.1071792067438 |
| 1.24210578097280 |
| 18.0466338809328 |
| -21.2349319682852 |
| 49.6065946977256 |
| -48.4528084049867 |
| 13.5017634471806 |
| 15.4645123205003 |
| -6.38415469147308 |
| -20.6765728661298 |
| 4.08123262633114 |
| -14.1492447492420 |
| 24.8855490827511 |
| -15.4108497786899 |
| 26.8003806325185 |
| -9.39402397915145 |
| 15.9364422898571 |
| -14.8410341215291 |
| -9.04369826848382 |
| 6.14756153464624 |
| -5.90887595724958 |
| -8.17755892893074 |
| -10.4526703441041 |
| -12.5876586913155 |
| -8.13774035668867 |
| 38.3430593650681 |
| 21.1192463164415 |
| 23.8741914918194 |
| -0.0452888297571786 |
| -17.4647487278131 |
| -7.96680072020336 |
| -7.2140114154745 |
| 4.17428455562539 |
| -16.3654320871175 |
| 8.3177608589171 |
| -8.76565530558554 |
| -0.542717194122272 |
| 10.6384003869353 |
| 3.43598485775388 |
| -7.27767334212603 |
| 42.9627763987345 |
| 6.21311351430089 |
| -26.8232864978746 |
| 19.3980622443454 |
| -2.64904564086123 |
| -42.8613021491187 |
| -20.6029678611273 |
| -13.3479693578336 |
| 32.641184053248 |
| -0.883276741626941 |
| -8.67549814363142 |
| 4.79702296077498 |
| 47.2421372015374 |
| 3.61600639573065 |
| -34.0879895923659 |
| 5.09222815618141 |
| -12.1924297506154 |
| -7.557800626915 |
| -6.09139484786908 |
| 0.938687977196568 |
| 5.15901709537283 |
| 15.2654019945528 |
| 15.7326060103669 |
| -14.9571444547003 |
| 3.9551229791794 |
| 22.4140499229367 |
| -11.7844888989943 |
| 21.1311367652284 |
| -20.1678187815258 |
| -36.9437837613718 |
| 4.61911169997772 |
| 33.0581560449671 |
| 26.6914844690140 |
| 4.72490353041573 |
| -7.00441575459646 |
| -20.1299879476181 |
| 7.5239229126626 |
| 9.68121634565823 |
| -14.2180790759740 |
| 6.88131988986847 |
| -10.6590946757309 |
| 18.1628203668947 |
| -2.34237505122537 |
| 2.51137560981232 |
| -28.8783116945579 |
| -19.9587744614791 |
| -19.7327824015556 |
| -6.13356640995335 |
| 11.8276038281327 |
| 24.1599215251754 |
| 7.68055771654381 |
| -20.8118979847537 |
| -18.2120292262575 |
| 22.1344902921426 |
| -2.19080640241889 |
| 14.8128924197282 |
| -15.9735997266248 |
| -0.622002110452479 |
| -13.4590836441381 |
| -8.6188684456311 |
| 10.0557959842088 |
| 8.8162571310375 |
| 6.35366804494212 |
| -7.04133844775424 |
| -1.82204241920956 |
| -30.7145259374633 |
| 6.39024835338528 |
| 6.81756020586934 |
| 21.3775227158597 |
| -1.25443926666305 |
| 9.16816214818594 |
| -6.6753145945592 |
| -5.57962689071211 |
| 3.07693727401469 |
| 0.127569347236472 |
| 15.088766814011 |
| -23.8822251879549 |
| 28.2274384029243 |
| 11.8720084445919 |
| 20.0747908070768 |
| -5.75754566989742 |
| -32.268748893925 |
| -9.79600213264086 |
| 14.337598212806 |
| 13.6089450078025 |
| 8.90472642311055 |
| -15.5333762239867 |
| 34.4836423645929 |
| -8.48581739294748 |
| 33.5972420838766 |
| 27.4518774029079 |
| 90.7195033237117 |
| -63.2101281114645 |
| -33.0610523266803 |
| -52.3422846552236 |
| -31.8517050411529 |
| -20.0429360247541 |
| -16.7078609472891 |
| -5.21865667169652 |
| -8.0463135311409 |
| 12.0680920349959 |
| -14.8529205874186 |
| 5.89408973754072 |
| 3.92350420382715 |
| -13.0989961777703 |
| -10.0055841396341 |
| 3.33100851830804 |
| -11.7806915842093 |
| 53.0308486454331 |
| 31.7373240453167 |
| 7.4359687913257 |
| -33.9113774683905 |
| -0.87737143767989 |
| 7.1675967626884 |
| -16.3576072686759 |
| -25.0528845682304 |
| 34.9412716946989 |
| -21.7138924213302 |
| -40.0784320009508 |
| 20.6177970718521 |
| 33.8648937757674 |
| -18.6180054038891 |
| 32.824974729468 |
| -15.8579800083214 |
| 1.04375412001764 |
| 2.98857204828555 |
| -47.8353340209834 |
| 18.3592002779908 |
| -5.41269362012121 |
| 27.4286253722381 |
| 3.39636325227269 |
| 18.7993666654111 |
| -28.9255902550611 |
| 43.6397917120822 |
| -18.4194603304921 |
| -2.57962288772197 |
| -3.11315029008015 |
| -7.19205323462766 |
| 30.7845350977517 |
