Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 48 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 49 | 48.4835553141614 | 0.0450889725275577 | 0.0574194441555891 | 0.066091969717463 |
3 | 59 | 53.2643494624829 | 0.360307843867307 | 0.580383001278492 | 0.715462380994163 |
4 | 56 | 54.5469322069548 | 0.405758839289783 | 0.362293766080655 | 0.147832922569044 |
5 | 47 | 51.3647197378823 | 0.264550180068174 | 0.0570801987295856 | -0.592327924025418 |
6 | 56 | 53.3467256543456 | 0.322272568373561 | 0.490158112550265 | 0.287976792902266 |
7 | 50 | 51.9923409850031 | 0.271623751446046 | 0.144767701651258 | -0.283538684676336 |
8 | 54 | 52.8672127992998 | 0.288591609331212 | 0.358676134583125 | 0.102501088069710 |
9 | 79 | 63.9541166313448 | 0.57792205048404 | 1.13515216831913 | 1.83975286392058 |
10 | 50 | 58.2645542614776 | 0.415674698647807 | -0.172007923441882 | -1.06947612345479 |
11 | 54 | 56.4738447253675 | 0.360014282021618 | 0.379034307642431 | -0.376837534559955 |
12 | 56 | 56.3099041325588 | 0.347066112409889 | 0.368183901821673 | -0.0895373068586133 |
13 | 50 | 55.8700245508463 | 0.423396028306244 | -4.67556943058289 | -0.182115530955458 |
14 | 46 | 51.318167087112 | 0.229352757294846 | -0.276639463057748 | -0.711172682161763 |
15 | 47 | 49.2805839804731 | 0.157069976854008 | 0.315594236406929 | -0.356650752245261 |
16 | 43 | 46.5452484430570 | 0.0845980918405958 | -0.00548886692811479 | -0.47824852972098 |
17 | 52 | 48.9006252586044 | 0.132296908902203 | 0.241495644247069 | 0.383363870556341 |
18 | 48 | 48.4783546553118 | 0.121924241583928 | 0.228431400695907 | -0.0944966010247166 |
19 | 36 | 43.341804872008 | 0.0303823272467762 | -0.59956109984278 | -0.899954040282278 |
20 | 41 | 42.397216899578 | 0.0141162088807799 | -0.143414480178913 | -0.167215267612003 |
21 | 34 | 38.5407702919013 | -0.0489054312852072 | 0.44410939004563 | -0.664515984663655 |
22 | 37 | 38.0077627533247 | -0.0566821835261305 | -0.383849328360152 | -0.0831515438298939 |
23 | 37 | 37.5300603118559 | -0.06339239211289 | 0.0127225527401368 | -0.0723288157461003 |
24 | 34 | 35.9655273328857 | -0.0860159433976338 | -0.0279746051358467 | -0.257963606941926 |
25 | 55 | 42.2223784964475 | -0.316194026372201 | 3.99385284434166 | 1.25863970147881 |
26 | 37 | 40.0930989532443 | -0.363962033787098 | -1.05887172883997 | -0.281449568608998 |
27 | 27 | 34.2618258271655 | -0.494903159563017 | -0.798999419331397 | -0.887128446007918 |
28 | 38 | 35.7183980114887 | -0.456283143823238 | -0.123798575650131 | 0.326852063380065 |
29 | 43 | 38.639408518804 | -0.398128154633761 | 0.120475154854376 | 0.573463845087279 |
30 | 26 | 33.2514191353127 | -0.476859388042633 | -0.935463211082794 | -0.85237103158677 |
31 | 32 | 32.7649152503695 | -0.477004006568099 | -0.752661380197807 | -0.0016519921505009 |
32 | 29 | 31.0845224179931 | -0.494554749528413 | -0.552813916884883 | -0.206387555162543 |
33 | 41 | 34.8360934615138 | -0.433475829718496 | 0.754894974281266 | 0.728638355886549 |
34 | 55 | 43.2995897242132 | -0.306226450344172 | 0.363138359003166 | 1.52703407745410 |
35 | 50 | 46.1940842554349 | -0.260666687655523 | -0.273270587371578 | 0.549373760889409 |
36 | 30 | 39.7485793548057 | -0.340508812460426 | -1.85367823584773 | -1.06194629241181 |
37 | 35 | 36.0225184471337 | -0.287856222706459 | 3.47929100434421 | -0.634153899121415 |
38 | 29 | 32.972665987874 | -0.345819504485971 | -0.747464534478297 | -0.444635919758805 |
39 | 22 | 28.4348817274144 | -0.433083749095241 | -1.43193087036311 | -0.689235293669122 |
40 | 39 | 32.5762165334568 | -0.35038926497769 | 0.799095587514981 | 0.769539450181696 |
41 | 24 | 28.6966790218554 | -0.407672498944957 | -0.29646923692442 | -0.599881827853066 |
42 | 38 | 32.5028141707185 | -0.343672540708173 | 0.211184864255337 | 0.719460077012531 |
43 | 30 | 31.5980734695633 | -0.351881782199347 | -0.892308282386911 | -0.0959844972251893 |
44 | 31 | 31.4761450543421 | -0.348581511199892 | -0.7657624608418 | 0.0393732685344838 |
45 | 39 | 34.3520853799691 | -0.302701507804819 | 0.5845931513874 | 0.552306577012687 |
46 | 33 | 33.6694266640623 | -0.308091597595351 | -0.190541108537781 | -0.0650870620941148 |
47 | 57 | 42.8881535856428 | -0.173950010432760 | 2.10297935000392 | 1.63193254999632 |
48 | 49 | 46.1674532643648 | -0.130653447497648 | -1.52735706863502 | 0.591751687622329 |
49 | 74 | 55.2484107624321 | -0.172674010162554 | 6.81210555145937 | 1.67212696377326 |
50 | 74 | 63.4698221324493 | -0.0184002463492205 | 0.538095179017007 | 1.37828680623751 |
51 | 115 | 85.9338453088701 | 0.414754718832038 | 2.13496231858669 | 3.72386248104591 |
52 | 67 | 78.5360696504965 | 0.278416861614145 | -1.96803720545403 | -1.31659649822396 |
53 | 51 | 67.4929457642276 | 0.0965311869526432 | -2.47124245860172 | -1.92395211972329 |
54 | 114 | 85.9611730099336 | 0.376849101965997 | 5.17381932281773 | 3.13315429375489 |
55 | 70 | 80.5258621563455 | 0.290666727290494 | -3.2766682016665 | -0.992720931796824 |
56 | 73 | 77.8549235568811 | 0.247378627042241 | -1.15761731004758 | -0.506167168805854 |
57 | 77 | 77.2359834012412 | 0.234793498472384 | 0.845953011599004 | -0.148098597441190 |
58 | 67 | 73.6076566416646 | 0.178817438750667 | -1.78240821735651 | -0.660446221293281 |
59 | 60 | 67.3231133380331 | 0.0862338375258085 | 0.751131174168254 | -1.10492777802117 |
60 | 73 | 70.5495565882865 | 0.126376703068323 | -1.47746518484296 | 0.537001124713946 |