| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 493 | 493 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 514 | 504.571033348849 | 3.14242806259559 | 9.42896665115085 | 1.76691629309249 |
| 3 | 522 | 520.007446945454 | 7.4837907567722 | 1.99255305454630 | 1.23183215236965 |
| 4 | 490 | 506.574978572565 | -1.37237606501525 | -16.5749785725646 | -2.12227545364971 |
| 5 | 484 | 488.710568130579 | -8.639501661703 | -4.71056813057891 | -1.59055060027424 |
| 6 | 506 | 493.561262728594 | -2.76880717502389 | 12.4387372714058 | 1.28279545481015 |
| 7 | 501 | 498.773900112680 | 0.689303630683884 | 2.22609988731953 | 0.768261258051414 |
| 8 | 462 | 477.46497312555 | -8.87297564973663 | -15.4649731255497 | -2.13631655926010 |
| 9 | 465 | 463.087216928793 | -11.2726669164339 | 1.91278307120683 | -0.536233728014627 |
| 10 | 454 | 452.173628671692 | -11.1159804348238 | 1.82637132830787 | 0.0350066531413511 |
| 11 | 464 | 454.930611568434 | -5.06227414424436 | 9.06938843156578 | 1.35251809408963 |
| 12 | 427 | 437.668444233094 | -10.3847382757294 | -10.6684442330937 | -1.18915900585750 |
| 13 | 460 | 448.793092570577 | -1.18661461560132 | 11.2069074294229 | 2.15392038600191 |
| 14 | 473 | 461.817642396312 | 4.95437066428956 | 11.1823576036883 | 1.37767126090792 |
| 15 | 465 | 459.518769099383 | 1.94216779933184 | 5.48123090061652 | -0.656853657086611 |
| 16 | 422 | 444.329408514776 | -5.13641618829899 | -22.3294085147756 | -1.60475087331948 |
| 17 | 415 | 431.084306116483 | -8.55739224066271 | -16.0843061164830 | -0.774225276626705 |
| 18 | 413 | 409.973112057597 | -13.8799150438736 | 3.02688794240324 | -1.18307750176295 |
| 19 | 420 | 401.826319177325 | -11.461016113609 | 18.1736808226748 | 0.536540822031456 |
| 20 | 363 | 382.296320682616 | -14.8598651647699 | -19.2963206826162 | -0.757455201188811 |
| 21 | 376 | 371.011564421791 | -13.3514902747804 | 4.98843557820949 | 0.336916973855627 |
| 22 | 380 | 372.938482022992 | -6.89782280644421 | 7.06151797700794 | 1.44206767783673 |
| 23 | 384 | 371.408407265191 | -4.6323229176987 | 12.5915927348095 | 0.506534429325817 |
| 24 | 346 | 368.550652855417 | -3.88437736920351 | -22.5506528554166 | 0.16780449449934 |
| 25 | 389 | 376.525720101599 | 1.12418941932652 | 12.4742798984014 | 1.12969771546276 |
| 26 | 407 | 387.102998592958 | 5.1150566321202 | 19.8970014070423 | 0.891201994671527 |
| 27 | 393 | 385.218524927309 | 2.19508898861061 | 7.78147507269059 | -0.647287238808744 |
| 28 | 346 | 372.065083949765 | -4.16863561400948 | -26.0650839497649 | -1.42613513215525 |
| 29 | 348 | 360.851992985825 | -7.10806307933134 | -12.8519929858245 | -0.662430282001851 |
| 30 | 353 | 351.343652640777 | -8.11509328915523 | 1.65634735922331 | -0.225423644293794 |
| 31 | 364 | 342.070796780096 | -8.6002651201675 | 21.9292032199044 | -0.108003468651413 |
| 32 | 305 | 329.320108629591 | -10.3347944485435 | -24.3201086295909 | -0.386215234726404 |
| 33 | 307 | 312.262069318856 | -13.1417350570144 | -5.26206931885617 | -0.626331221209646 |
| 34 | 312 | 303.310588476613 | -11.3923424763325 | 8.68941152338655 | 0.391010452837393 |
| 35 | 312 | 298.641333580546 | -8.5851984461404 | 13.358666419454 | 0.628496124810071 |
| 36 | 286 | 306.485381197079 | -1.71850775064605 | -20.4853811970791 | 1.540178885019 |
| 37 | 324 | 313.018212411979 | 1.73605379623659 | 10.9817875880213 | 0.774202772509078 |
| 38 | 336 | 313.435138455715 | 1.18455003251128 | 22.5648615442849 | -0.12298495952208 |
| 39 | 327 | 312.65755371924 | 0.368841704111837 | 14.3424462807603 | -0.181531695080490 |
| 40 | 302 | 320.232748430545 | 3.35428699579593 | -18.2327484305448 | 0.66770852676506 |
| 41 | 299 | 316.67239551931 | 0.482764751821045 | -17.6723955193100 | -0.64492546775473 |
| 42 | 311 | 310.691349745327 | -2.21139797913897 | 0.308650254673188 | -0.603795074957681 |
| 43 | 315 | 296.117659991278 | -7.3655353187369 | 18.8823400087221 | -1.15011773889491 |
| 44 | 264 | 284.870189599966 | -8.98034151744165 | -20.8701895999657 | -0.359736754979694 |
| 45 | 278 | 281.277263731508 | -6.74398809596575 | -3.27726373150823 | 0.498782918050458 |
| 46 | 278 | 274.92418785064 | -6.58183781716956 | 3.07581214936003 | 0.0362453251890144 |
| 47 | 287 | 276.740988406644 | -3.09585557811918 | 10.2590115933563 | 0.780775914220422 |
| 48 | 279 | 292.470348322266 | 4.73039338193652 | -13.4703483222662 | 1.75396508851009 |
| 49 | 324 | 308.635196829046 | 9.48938047789489 | 15.3648031709538 | 1.06457432972693 |
| 50 | 354 | 327.90365786262 | 13.5537917240268 | 26.0963421373798 | 0.906359214920433 |
| 51 | 354 | 343.360562171018 | 14.3420325061335 | 10.6394378289824 | 0.175663553763780 |
| 52 | 360 | 368.099389787243 | 18.6390606994307 | -8.09938978724268 | 0.960553163847438 |
| 53 | 363 | 381.158503053108 | 16.3300326177234 | -18.1585030531083 | -0.517671939646797 |
| 54 | 385 | 384.798878262741 | 11.0659837578906 | 0.201121737258704 | -1.17936373343546 |
| 55 | 412 | 391.411194084666 | 9.21733318770302 | 20.5888059153339 | -0.412931112201856 |
| 56 | 370 | 394.881345970172 | 6.83571197043593 | -24.8813459701715 | -0.530939027598221 |
| 57 | 389 | 395.32728359129 | 4.19347876811356 | -6.32728359128969 | -0.589340664512528 |
| 58 | 395 | 397.533888222596 | 3.37267569384741 | -2.53388822259636 | -0.183456442636117 |
| 59 | 417 | 410.266516996304 | 7.24203331567254 | 6.73348300369594 | 0.866445181414434 |
| 60 | 404 | 422.481743874837 | 9.30109927695227 | -18.4817438748371 | 0.461154741842772 |
