| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 377 | 377 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 370 | 370.77182044338 | -0.364085612821178 | -0.771820443379732 | -0.819667559650175 |
| 3 | 358 | 360.893609121638 | -0.857495727577432 | -2.89360912163831 | -1.91355436444758 |
| 4 | 357 | 357.415620668051 | -0.996056511308958 | -0.415620668050982 | -0.539604561315922 |
| 5 | 349 | 350.83970524568 | -1.3543561783321 | -1.83970524567983 | -1.13564667380614 |
| 6 | 348 | 348.360025830901 | -1.44026926413622 | -0.360025830900925 | -0.226985859116976 |
| 7 | 369 | 364.748223455095 | 0.100972828102177 | 4.25177654490494 | 3.56919909301561 |
| 8 | 381 | 379.392957053473 | 1.47621628208954 | 1.60704294652741 | 2.89325467655363 |
| 9 | 368 | 372.1521922671 | 0.595226720096757 | -4.15219226710039 | -1.72504910273599 |
| 10 | 361 | 363.204447308049 | -0.418766238031085 | -2.204447308049 | -1.88047706531214 |
| 11 | 351 | 353.165321518602 | -1.48041460255603 | -2.16532151860176 | -1.8892437940748 |
| 12 | 351 | 350.892383082871 | -1.5704160522584 | 0.107616917128553 | -0.155211143839857 |
| 13 | 358 | 351.32485023196 | -1.36810728454446 | 6.6751497680399 | 0.438266450244164 |
| 14 | 354 | 352.076002270524 | -1.11403525794026 | 1.92399772947648 | 0.380781257302718 |
| 15 | 347 | 349.954315608161 | -1.23557568771516 | -2.95431560816111 | -0.188602799786637 |
| 16 | 345 | 345.006621479103 | -1.68137150246395 | -0.00662147910329645 | -0.718323472570808 |
| 17 | 343 | 343.587009975268 | -1.6498889856861 | -0.587009975267622 | 0.0504900209587586 |
| 18 | 340 | 343.61466339716 | -1.4471591093792 | -3.61466339716023 | 0.323004817281015 |
| 19 | 362 | 356.689626999325 | 0.316440277731347 | 5.31037300067548 | 2.79584782160258 |
| 20 | 370 | 365.640608624883 | 1.36904494594614 | 4.35939137511712 | 1.66223839209093 |
| 21 | 373 | 374.099630470416 | 2.23583511633671 | -1.09963047041557 | 1.36477277648142 |
| 22 | 371 | 373.135618014036 | 1.84376353855187 | -2.13561801403576 | -0.615951608616155 |
| 23 | 354 | 360.605870908242 | 0.081014947189498 | -6.60587090824167 | -2.76472101998357 |
| 24 | 357 | 357.189883569378 | -0.346286523988329 | -0.189883569377656 | -0.67185312408269 |
| 25 | 363 | 356.594075456645 | -0.376563014431525 | 6.40592454335518 | -0.049795096296961 |
| 26 | 364 | 360.235572821524 | 0.117262999243606 | 3.76442717847578 | 0.757845195309938 |
| 27 | 363 | 363.81207438243 | 0.541118643961598 | -0.812074382429971 | 0.649314572456457 |
| 28 | 358 | 359.50948449846 | -0.052734660459822 | -1.50948449846026 | -0.929504086686762 |
| 29 | 357 | 357.956856502646 | -0.236887098776109 | -0.95685650264629 | -0.287984504425376 |
| 30 | 357 | 362.487131605139 | 0.34855666508877 | -5.48713160513888 | 0.913195549643585 |
| 31 | 380 | 373.776142096145 | 1.6921768028427 | 6.22385790385535 | 2.09542913377379 |
| 32 | 378 | 376.480947315876 | 1.81655964322943 | 1.51905268412368 | 0.194039986755237 |
| 33 | 376 | 376.967723036841 | 1.65318516910728 | -0.967723036840695 | -0.25491793623416 |
| 34 | 380 | 378.362262052233 | 1.62140672881612 | 1.63773794776696 | -0.0495799181184586 |
| 35 | 379 | 383.358179387028 | 2.03569926364257 | -4.35817938702818 | 0.646020970100626 |
| 36 | 384 | 384.697499505624 | 1.9503842862427 | -0.697499505623628 | -0.13362166335584 |
| 37 | 392 | 386.781978466361 | 1.96681310289619 | 5.2180215336394 | 0.0261408019573997 |
| 38 | 394 | 390.36670575119 | 2.16545893081636 | 3.63329424881044 | 0.308168360185925 |
| 39 | 392 | 391.584932670452 | 2.04951883693086 | 0.415067329547941 | -0.178795550749138 |
| 40 | 396 | 396.048168878826 | 2.34498936057412 | -0.0481688788260475 | 0.461538675977981 |
| 41 | 392 | 395.657231146316 | 2.00947837623672 | -3.6572311463158 | -0.524664089560504 |
| 42 | 396 | 402.584559281025 | 2.61296206357534 | -6.58455928102522 | 0.941174230757757 |
| 43 | 419 | 411.188908857562 | 3.34815215429608 | 7.81109114243753 | 1.14575356941826 |
| 44 | 421 | 418.222645004876 | 3.8003680787981 | 2.77735499512411 | 0.704988509357126 |
| 45 | 420 | 421.540873965666 | 3.74121033224067 | -1.54087396566616 | -0.092251729837293 |
| 46 | 418 | 419.420345201303 | 3.02210563705586 | -1.42034520130258 | -1.12115410578939 |
| 47 | 410 | 416.046067170086 | 2.23801765568379 | -6.04606717008585 | -1.22241688976023 |
| 48 | 418 | 418.261113927705 | 2.23520472976684 | -0.261113927705485 | -0.00440541806308474 |
| 49 | 426 | 420.881039815343 | 2.28235304194304 | 5.11896018465727 | 0.0743092737279108 |
| 50 | 428 | 423.790014025864 | 2.35920128185588 | 4.20998597413607 | 0.119580913899457 |
| 51 | 430 | 428.966846271361 | 2.7040092842992 | 1.03315372863909 | 0.533780219947932 |
| 52 | 424 | 425.639202944556 | 1.96619549060588 | -1.63920294455554 | -1.15113009152482 |
| 53 | 423 | 427.79452998348 | 1.98936070280676 | -4.79452998348016 | 0.0362267310518663 |
| 54 | 427 | 434.006882740956 | 2.5070123665471 | -7.00688274095597 | 0.80792065169002 |
| 55 | 441 | 435.147992225412 | 2.33956653551413 | 5.85200777458842 | -0.261032918501219 |
| 56 | 449 | 443.718024251251 | 3.10329000985807 | 5.28197574874892 | 1.19051788788743 |
| 57 | 452 | 450.746121382134 | 3.5843473656921 | 1.2538786178657 | 0.749950498681144 |
| 58 | 462 | 459.961521619288 | 4.27434909726769 | 2.03847838071157 | 1.0754619111606 |
| 59 | 455 | 462.247256496182 | 4.03083406243002 | -7.24725649618191 | -0.379776504009806 |
| 60 | 461 | 462.702322082168 | 3.59316567385327 | -1.70232208216846 | -0.685217858541987 |
| 61 | 461 | 458.776602822135 | 2.67214511906328 | 2.22339717786457 | -1.44567609583215 |
| 62 | 463 | 459.489233361039 | 2.43203265984592 | 3.51076663896065 | -0.374004328178865 |
| 63 | 462 | 459.696647794025 | 2.15983394638893 | 2.30335220597479 | -0.422337765361319 |
| 64 | 456 | 458.5781390031 | 1.75894162609772 | -2.57813900310029 | -0.625057931716198 |
| 65 | 455 | 460.384308997977 | 1.76472168977558 | -5.3843089979765 | 0.00903628424572416 |
| 66 | 456 | 462.514135227732 | 1.80943856374319 | -6.51413522773187 | 0.069828509226207 |
| 67 | 472 | 467.040343251498 | 2.14224012333407 | 4.95965674850217 | 0.519007671322199 |
| 68 | 472 | 468.559850787133 | 2.06596183005033 | 3.4401492128667 | -0.118904411124607 |
| 69 | 471 | 471.222839953936 | 2.1390804674289 | -0.222839953936187 | 0.113962276449176 |
| 70 | 465 | 465.377943341081 | 1.16159236816581 | -0.377943341080785 | -1.52337964930848 |
| 71 | 459 | 465.110296898625 | 0.986698782633627 | -6.11029689862496 | -0.27284469344212 |
| 72 | 465 | 464.904156907295 | 0.840753771687547 | 0.095843092705268 | -0.228380088120873 |
| 73 | 468 | 465.203070043426 | 0.774414519033658 | 2.79692995657397 | -0.103908823073392 |
| 74 | 467 | 463.499704837149 | 0.470992029945105 | 3.50029516285095 | -0.472817491477764 |
| 75 | 463 | 460.714984237736 | 0.0727165456493103 | 2.28501576226447 | -0.618844746909385 |
| 76 | 460 | 461.96351166672 | 0.216469654198623 | -1.96351166671955 | 0.224072916997709 |
| 77 | 462 | 466.231179631062 | 0.71200826329687 | -4.23117963106189 | 0.774399137178819 |
| 78 | 461 | 468.149877667799 | 0.859704521590386 | -7.14987766779867 | 0.230700766303188 |
| 79 | 476 | 470.534259119806 | 1.04636549355092 | 5.46574088019368 | 0.291194156305576 |
| 80 | 476 | 472.331446799772 | 1.13828070839912 | 3.66855320022848 | 0.143283764387947 |
| 81 | 471 | 470.227751216171 | 0.741477597215622 | 0.77224878382903 | -0.618361931042568 |
| 82 | 453 | 457.613439884611 | -0.89264850803403 | -4.61343988461131 | -2.54673025457714 |
| 83 | 443 | 450.294990766958 | -1.67856596034968 | -7.2949907669579 | -1.22633383089189 |
| 84 | 442 | 443.169469633218 | -2.34478253898502 | -1.16946963321799 | -1.04200783037378 |
| 85 | 444 | 440.150113751741 | -2.42733543476285 | 3.84988624825905 | -0.129145953899806 |
| 86 | 438 | 434.589412651668 | -2.81083748131147 | 3.41058734833206 | -0.597741884616217 |
| 87 | 427 | 426.756398117148 | -3.42505248800154 | 0.243601882851705 | -0.955282341767888 |
| 88 | 424 | 425.940663608999 | -3.10610261904724 | -1.94066360899923 | 0.497121782484273 |
| 89 | 416 | 421.427165284535 | -3.27818470621251 | -5.42716528453461 | -0.26882400381483 |
| 90 | 406 | 414.923467592817 | -3.67277887304397 | -8.92346759281678 | -0.616406772481001 |
| 91 | 431 | 421.831706341288 | -2.37801479218281 | 9.16829365871218 | 2.02031356674395 |
| 92 | 434 | 426.947223948541 | -1.46109379286945 | 7.05277605145949 | 1.42943278590965 |
| 93 | 418 | 416.869559562373 | -2.51520017272952 | 1.13044043762744 | -1.64257234565825 |
| 94 | 412 | 414.271739515864 | -2.52530406171486 | -2.27173951586367 | -0.015747501774449 |
| 95 | 404 | 410.366231823789 | -2.69404714138637 | -6.36623182378885 | -0.263332374531435 |
| 96 | 409 | 409.22075434622 | -2.50469851032565 | -0.220754346219617 | 0.29602569033092 |
| 97 | 412 | 406.982911665032 | -2.47205423423226 | 5.01708833496764 | 0.0510294650765298 |
| 98 | 406 | 402.070506644262 | -2.77060467450632 | 3.92949335573771 | -0.465403965078753 |
| 99 | 398 | 398.457860671294 | -2.87356026566692 | -0.457860671294424 | -0.160231321976855 |
| 100 | 397 | 397.556668923814 | -2.63251292740968 | -0.556668923813682 | 0.375710414754938 |
| 101 | 385 | 391.380899274974 | -3.06561020495785 | -6.38089927497433 | -0.676378661957069 |
| 102 | 390 | 398.412677184335 | -1.83085258605721 | -8.41267718433503 | 1.9287900953799 |
| 103 | 413 | 403.634772097366 | -0.968162947003074 | 9.36522790263373 | 1.34630156421877 |
| 104 | 413 | 403.594187556936 | -0.854708116535778 | 9.40581244306416 | 0.176881487629252 |
| 105 | 401 | 400.659750006732 | -1.10902864906465 | 0.340249993268361 | -0.396299940547861 |
| 106 | 397 | 399.088927178462 | -1.16548159281065 | -2.08892717846199 | -0.087992563025745 |
| 107 | 397 | 402.268280572463 | -0.634446023318783 | -5.2682805724629 | 0.8287398188054 |
| 108 | 409 | 407.333703137259 | 0.062308229469326 | 1.66629686274122 | 1.08889843578405 |
| 109 | 419 | 411.858101656168 | 0.607962200826045 | 7.14189834383201 | 0.852527948642628 |
| 110 | 424 | 418.024645779809 | 1.28774022105419 | 5.97535422019062 | 1.05981250206448 |
| 111 | 428 | 426.508902504229 | 2.16743454135471 | 1.49109749577141 | 1.36973309683167 |
| 112 | 430 | 429.944423103743 | 2.32238243640613 | 0.0555768962565404 | 0.241526792630361 |
| 113 | 424 | 433.281111843845 | 2.44633089993157 | -9.2811118438452 | 0.193527956233552 |
| 114 | 433 | 441.435458174522 | 3.14409920473569 | -8.43545817452165 | 1.08986481447066 |
| 115 | 456 | 446.384278634567 | 3.36476831812477 | 9.61572136543327 | 0.344395841259839 |
| 116 | 459 | 449.148678842959 | 3.29136049739322 | 9.8513211570414 | -0.11445405523389 |
| 117 | 446 | 447.352827828116 | 2.66947573471673 | -1.35282782811619 | -0.96911579267617 |
| 118 | 441 | 445.679040622549 | 2.13868614165583 | -4.67904062254922 | -0.827410190793463 |
| 119 | 439 | 446.253148069245 | 1.94750731670341 | -7.25314806924458 | -0.298354125337589 |
| 120 | 454 | 452.205431961933 | 2.43693597390293 | 1.79456803806664 | 0.764651870631468 |
| 121 | 460 | 454.837097114599 | 2.4607415186913 | 5.16290288540134 | 0.0371803987763305 |
| 122 | 457 | 454.196684573684 | 2.08161187814039 | 2.80331542631626 | -0.591138382960509 |
| 123 | 451 | 451.469164802083 | 1.49388222389752 | -0.469164802083169 | -0.915454023901634 |
| 124 | 444 | 446.570753653916 | 0.712934872938267 | -2.57075365391579 | -1.21740888983367 |
| 125 | 437 | 447.588643567013 | 0.750192576524574 | -10.5886435670132 | 0.058161869203174 |
| 126 | 443 | 451.020510290082 | 1.07791880795666 | -8.02051029008233 | 0.511819873914855 |
| 127 | 471 | 458.740941773673 | 1.88987724960722 | 12.2590582263268 | 1.26723397921852 |
| 128 | 469 | 458.613319582734 | 1.64326669138684 | 10.3866804172657 | -0.384529323267877 |
| 129 | 454 | 455.650326329031 | 1.08033099232356 | -1.65032632903076 | -0.877323910597753 |
| 130 | 444 | 450.510386488516 | 0.320338132477274 | -6.51038648851589 | -1.18480272773939 |
| 131 | 436 | 445.92693724783 | -0.278741832755345 | -9.9269372478295 | -0.93489805075211 |
