Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.651524078529005 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 96.84 | 95.05 | 1.79000000000001 |
3 | 96.92 | 96.216228100567 | 0.703771899433079 |
4 | 97.44 | 96.6747524388397 | 0.765247561160322 |
5 | 97.78 | 97.1733296509712 | 0.606670349028775 |
6 | 97.69 | 97.568589991093 | 0.121410008906935 |
7 | 96.67 | 97.6476915352704 | -0.977691535270353 |
8 | 98.29 | 97.0107019586677 | 1.27929804133227 |
9 | 98.2 | 97.8441954362107 | 0.355804563789306 |
10 | 98.71 | 98.07601067677 | 0.633989323230054 |
11 | 98.54 | 98.4890699863846 | 0.0509300136153712 |
12 | 98.2 | 98.5222521165749 | -0.322252116574859 |
13 | 96.92 | 98.3122971032694 | -1.3922971032694 |
14 | 99.06 | 97.4051820160232 | 1.65481798397680 |
15 | 99.65 | 98.483335778167 | 1.16666422183309 |
16 | 99.82 | 99.2434456102495 | 0.576554389750513 |
17 | 99.99 | 99.6190846777535 | 0.370915322246461 |
18 | 100.33 | 99.8607449412925 | 0.469255058707546 |
19 | 99.31 | 100.166475911012 | -0.856475911011955 |
20 | 101.1 | 99.6084612323076 | 1.49153876769239 |
21 | 101.1 | 100.580234653519 | 0.519765346481321 |
22 | 100.93 | 100.918874291936 | 0.0111257080637870 |
23 | 100.85 | 100.926122958630 | -0.0761229586304637 |
24 | 100.93 | 100.876527018154 | 0.0534729818461699 |
25 | 99.6 | 100.911365953377 | -1.31136595337736 |
26 | 101.88 | 100.056979458989 | 1.82302054101115 |
27 | 101.81 | 101.244721237111 | 0.56527876288942 |
28 | 102.38 | 101.613013962214 | 0.76698603778587 |
29 | 102.74 | 102.112723833727 | 0.627276166272807 |
30 | 102.82 | 102.521409359941 | 0.298590640058706 |
31 | 101.72 | 102.715948351563 | -0.99594835156293 |
32 | 103.47 | 102.067064019548 | 1.40293598045159 |
33 | 102.98 | 102.981110591447 | -0.00111059144730064 |
34 | 102.68 | 102.980387014378 | -0.300387014377975 |
35 | 102.9 | 102.784677641633 | 0.115322358366711 |
36 | 103.03 | 102.859812934902 | 0.170187065098048 |
37 | 101.29 | 102.970693905668 | -1.68069390566750 |
38 | 103.69 | 101.875681357488 | 1.81431864251182 |
39 | 103.68 | 103.057753639209 | 0.622246360791308 |
40 | 104.2 | 103.463162126041 | 0.73683787395872 |
41 | 104.08 | 103.943229742898 | 0.136770257102484 |
42 | 104.16 | 104.032338858626 | 0.127661141373608 |
43 | 103.05 | 104.115513166124 | -1.06551316612378 |
44 | 104.66 | 103.421305682404 | 1.23869431759553 |
45 | 104.46 | 104.228344856255 | 0.231655143744987 |
46 | 104.95 | 104.37927376032 | 0.570726239680042 |
47 | 105.85 | 104.751115647720 | 1.09888435228018 |
48 | 106.23 | 105.467065262749 | 0.762934737250916 |
49 | 104.86 | 105.964135614414 | -1.10413561441426 |
50 | 107.44 | 105.244764675662 | 2.19523532433804 |
51 | 108.23 | 106.675013347506 | 1.55498665249438 |
52 | 108.45 | 107.688124593397 | 0.761875406603068 |
53 | 109.39 | 108.184504765638 | 1.20549523436209 |
54 | 110.15 | 108.969913937377 | 1.18008606262322 |
55 | 109.13 | 109.738768421912 | -0.608768421912316 |
56 | 110.28 | 109.342141136788 | 0.93785886321166 |
57 | 110.17 | 109.953178768433 | 0.216821231567423 |
58 | 109.99 | 110.094443021535 | -0.104443021535076 |
59 | 109.26 | 110.026395878171 | -0.766395878170641 |
60 | 109.11 | 109.527070509857 | -0.417070509857098 |
61 | 107.06 | 109.255339030241 | -2.19533903024083 |
62 | 109.53 | 107.825022791504 | 1.70497720849558 |
63 | 108.92 | 108.935856496182 | -0.015856496182451 |
64 | 109.24 | 108.925525607118 | 0.314474392881507 |
65 | 109.12 | 109.130413246162 | -0.0104132461615762 |
66 | 109 | 109.123628765552 | -0.123628765551672 |
67 | 107.23 | 109.043081647996 | -1.81308164799593 |
68 | 109.49 | 107.861815297988 | 1.62818470201246 |
69 | 109.04 | 108.922616835641 | 0.117383164358785 |
70 | 109.02 | 108.999094793635 | 0.0209052063651001 |
71 | 109.23 | 109.012715038948 | 0.217284961051632 |
72 | 109.46 | 109.154281422976 | 0.305718577024251 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 109.353464437161 | 107.532780286888 | 111.174148587433 |
74 | 109.353464437161 | 107.180446345334 | 111.526482528987 |
75 | 109.353464437161 | 106.877757572494 | 111.829171301827 |
76 | 109.353464437161 | 106.608242891983 | 112.098685982339 |
77 | 109.353464437161 | 106.362919639893 | 112.344009234428 |
78 | 109.353464437161 | 106.136249020560 | 112.570679853761 |
79 | 109.353464437161 | 105.92452992493 | 112.782398949391 |
80 | 109.353464437161 | 105.725144062453 | 112.981784811868 |
81 | 109.353464437161 | 105.536158372163 | 113.170770502159 |
82 | 109.353464437161 | 105.356097498009 | 113.350831376312 |
83 | 109.353464437161 | 105.183805062754 | 113.523123811567 |
84 | 109.353464437161 | 105.018354732559 | 113.688574141762 |