Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.000564574695315228 |
gamma | 0.192386515790093 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 41.33 | 41.6101522435898 | -0.280152243589754 |
14 | 41.29 | 41.2865186979343 | 0.00348130206570829 |
15 | 41.29 | 41.2915206633893 | -0.00152066338934986 |
16 | 41.27 | 41.275686471528 | -0.00568647152795876 |
17 | 41.04 | 41.06568326109 | -0.0256832610900091 |
18 | 40.9 | 40.9473354276374 | -0.0473354276373854 |
19 | 40.89 | 40.7627253699194 | 0.127274630080592 |
20 | 40.72 | 40.8282138926216 | -0.108213892621571 |
21 | 40.72 | 40.7056527977961 | 0.0143472022038793 |
22 | 40.58 | 40.6664942311968 | -0.0864942311967667 |
23 | 40.24 | 40.6097787320759 | -0.369778732075865 |
24 | 40.07 | 40.2091532976942 | -0.139153297694222 |
25 | 40.12 | 40.0586580685969 | 0.0613419314030992 |
26 | 40.1 | 40.0761927006991 | 0.0238072993008842 |
27 | 40.1 | 40.1012061416979 | -0.00120614169787814 |
28 | 40.08 | 40.0853721274075 | -0.00537212740748316 |
29 | 40.06 | 39.8753690944403 | 0.184630905559743 |
30 | 39.99 | 39.9671399990442 | 0.0228600009558022 |
31 | 40.05 | 39.8525695718889 | 0.197430428111069 |
32 | 39.66 | 39.9880977027794 | -0.328097702779388 |
33 | 39.66 | 39.6454124671188 | 0.0145875328811869 |
34 | 39.67 | 39.6062540362041 | 0.0637459637959239 |
35 | 39.56 | 39.6996233588955 | -0.139623358895491 |
36 | 39.64 | 39.5291278644135 | 0.110872135586462 |
37 | 39.73 | 39.628773793349 | 0.101226206650971 |
38 | 39.7 | 39.6863309431038 | 0.0136690568962123 |
39 | 39.7 | 39.7013386603074 | -0.00133866030743945 |
40 | 39.68 | 39.6855045712004 | -0.00550457120038317 |
41 | 39.76 | 39.4755014634587 | 0.28449853654125 |
42 | 40 | 39.6673287508 | 0.332671249199983 |
43 | 39.96 | 39.8629332352358 | 0.0970667647641648 |
44 | 40.01 | 39.8984047033416 | 0.111595296658358 |
45 | 40.01 | 39.9959677072222 | 0.0140322927777490 |
46 | 40.01 | 39.956808962833 | 0.0531910371669895 |
47 | 40 | 40.0401723264799 | -0.040172326479933 |
48 | 39.91 | 39.9697329795343 | -0.0597329795343029 |
49 | 39.86 | 39.8992825891389 | -0.0392825891388995 |
50 | 39.79 | 39.8167604111831 | -0.0267604111831048 |
51 | 39.79 | 39.7917453029321 | -0.00174530293212172 |
52 | 39.8 | 39.7759109842449 | 0.0240890157550666 |
53 | 39.64 | 39.5959245842936 | 0.0440754157063665 |
54 | 39.55 | 39.5476161348247 | 0.00238386517528255 |
55 | 39.36 | 39.4130341473613 | -0.0530341473613234 |
56 | 39.28 | 39.2984208722904 | -0.0184208722903989 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
57 | 39.2659104723320 | 39.0097388057074 | 39.5220821389567 |
58 | 39.2126542779974 | 38.8502705508625 | 39.5750380051323 |
59 | 39.2427314169961 | 38.7987785247121 | 39.6866843092801 |
60 | 39.2123918893282 | 38.6996145699768 | 39.7251692086796 |
61 | 39.2016356949936 | 38.6281714558744 | 39.7750999341127 |
62 | 39.1583795006589 | 38.5300036773465 | 39.7867553239714 |
63 | 39.1601233063243 | 38.4812084026721 | 39.8390382099765 |
64 | 39.1460337786564 | 38.4200385385787 | 39.8720290187341 |
65 | 38.9419442509884 | 38.1716928999339 | 39.712195602043 |
66 | 38.8495213899871 | 38.0373762959348 | 39.6616664840395 |
67 | 38.7125151956525 | 37.8604901605592 | 39.5645402307458 |
68 | 38.6509256679846 | 37.760763769489 | 39.5410875664801 |