| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 41.85 | 41.85 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 41.75 | 41.7562066210638 | -0.0065553124913993 | -0.00511075876723255 | -0.61157554965322 |
| 3 | 41.75 | 41.7549293310928 | -0.00611880030325368 | -0.00509238564705291 | 0.05512048631084 |
| 4 | 41.75 | 41.7549006548992 | -0.00542960596175323 | -0.00508223033860989 | 0.0623942577348153 |
| 5 | 41.58 | 41.5899273756818 | -0.0272834162103662 | -0.00530433967981116 | -1.61054141317511 |
| 6 | 41.61 | 41.6137934117889 | -0.0193904508997543 | -0.00524428569938085 | 0.51065660381463 |
| 7 | 41.42 | 41.4299975197799 | -0.0467618215237257 | -0.00540492067399878 | -1.62835288439185 |
| 8 | 41.37 | 41.3756214929032 | -0.0480930062245208 | -0.00541105014653086 | -0.0749965969536968 |
| 9 | 41.37 | 41.3741024961183 | -0.0396888198675224 | -0.00538037049466777 | 0.456988108410448 |
| 10 | 41.33 | 41.3353541870175 | -0.0395155883299458 | -0.00537986584236436 | 0.00920458601168563 |
| 11 | 41.37 | 41.3732397749297 | -0.0250679142824497 | -0.00534613862050466 | 0.756197181506416 |
| 12 | 41.34 | 41.3454217860621 | -0.0255857061126666 | -0.00534710983358388 | -0.0268366330650689 |
| 13 | 41.33 | 41.2866304499283 | -0.0315349549944941 | 0.0442367032332191 | -0.379472745287853 |
| 14 | 41.29 | 41.2924523769974 | -0.0245981513681806 | -0.00316262073635268 | 0.30718206069518 |
| 15 | 41.29 | 41.2924932016727 | -0.0199060513396933 | -0.00316016636394246 | 0.240024650589459 |
| 16 | 41.27 | 41.2731453597386 | -0.0197995537619999 | -0.0031604526808434 | 0.00543303450087765 |
| 17 | 41.04 | 41.0486067124392 | -0.0588955580630466 | -0.00307166391677844 | -1.99266394346721 |
| 18 | 40.9 | 40.9053233476935 | -0.07501943528306 | -0.00304205230068141 | -0.821335942029 |
| 19 | 40.89 | 40.8914075502777 | -0.0633397589181768 | -0.00305936976826737 | 0.594729161605545 |
| 20 | 40.72 | 40.7258005645861 | -0.0828929751436773 | -0.00303596358724405 | -0.995406373780797 |
| 21 | 40.72 | 40.7209408838964 | -0.0679704515706822 | -0.00305038575273346 | 0.759548032383008 |
| 22 | 40.58 | 40.584880935154 | -0.0809930601853865 | -0.0030402238764905 | -0.662774533557788 |
| 23 | 40.24 | 40.2498765743218 | -0.12957887687454 | -0.00300961263811978 | -2.47256603372478 |
| 24 | 40.07 | 40.074250005569 | -0.138387163676504 | -0.00300513175741117 | -0.448240041566728 |
| 25 | 40.12 | 40.0580117723527 | -0.115378181635299 | 0.0587519071097328 | 1.29182115715795 |
| 26 | 40.1 | 40.0995831856281 | -0.0859718846523846 | -0.00301741916449247 | 1.38099087616352 |
| 27 | 40.1 | 40.1006658976651 | -0.069316744924702 | -0.00301951449875203 | 0.847468612686639 |
| 28 | 40.08 | 40.0816799407282 | -0.0596852524074713 | -0.00303995420800641 | 0.48973876224505 |
| 29 | 40.06 | 40.0619731689419 | -0.0520358959661575 | -0.00305356694032228 | 0.389041153149987 |
| 30 | 39.99 | 39.9934934700151 | -0.0551819318808214 | -0.0030490392240099 | -0.160032460579175 |
| 31 | 40.05 | 40.0500535702964 | -0.0338043730721001 | -0.00307388392220129 | 1.08755401532798 |
| 32 | 39.66 | 39.672309155526 | -0.0996027090958257 | -0.00301213673390254 | -3.34764306168403 |
| 33 | 39.66 | 39.6606476456903 | -0.082779016086571 | -0.00302488478620099 | 0.85598491682344 |
| 34 | 39.67 | 39.6705307872641 | -0.06505216507212 | -0.003035730814851 | 0.901965164401479 |
| 35 | 39.56 | 39.5641491185908 | -0.0729587950225451 | -0.00303182470087589 | -0.40230767202018 |
| 36 | 39.64 | 39.6390459238431 | -0.0446727744001233 | -0.00304310805438549 | 1.43927720668671 |
| 37 | 39.73 | 39.6820643601204 | -0.0280567372809125 | 0.0455963015402111 | 0.90311589298975 |
| 38 | 39.7 | 39.7024882658352 | -0.0189263548958714 | -0.00361426754759397 | 0.438957996625694 |
| 39 | 39.7 | 39.7030868391148 | -0.0151907805904221 | -0.00361471412272284 | 0.190072979452948 |
| 40 | 39.68 | 39.6837261335673 | -0.0159887224179164 | -0.00361344086647369 | -0.0405798182735179 |
| 41 | 39.76 | 39.761113618057 | 0.00187739870114834 | -0.00363733500949657 | 0.908756363295003 |
| 42 | 40 | 39.9973511872504 | 0.0467155761240067 | -0.00368582901278298 | 2.28098674910422 |
| 43 | 39.96 | 39.9657886926001 | 0.031739844058584 | -0.00367274976794332 | -0.761904628319648 |
| 44 | 40.01 | 40.0132498863858 | 0.034747512134722 | -0.00367487080253303 | 0.153026648064286 |
| 45 | 40.01 | 40.0145747520173 | 0.0283534337762807 | -0.00367122986019488 | -0.32533527697936 |
| 46 | 40.01 | 40.0144389015728 | 0.0229031579474176 | -0.00366872392676351 | -0.27732060894897 |
| 47 | 40 | 40.0045528351555 | 0.0166302431348601 | -0.00366639511793735 | -0.319183088499056 |
| 48 | 39.91 | 39.9164907405033 | -0.00339856641637932 | -0.00366039124057445 | -1.01913112631678 |
| 49 | 39.86 | 39.8304526815677 | -0.0190965970453849 | 0.0317594691201597 | -0.83955993266865 |
| 50 | 39.79 | 39.7934720734949 | -0.022475658488028 | -0.0030426351700077 | -0.164529041217416 |
| 51 | 39.79 | 39.7924626686976 | -0.0183686811146941 | -0.00304303188038616 | 0.20897249038329 |
| 52 | 39.8 | 39.8022878726012 | -0.0129738145812875 | -0.00304988158238495 | 0.274390633366302 |
| 53 | 39.64 | 39.6468710139236 | -0.0402276741106775 | -0.00302088063079823 | -1.38636948088415 |
| 54 | 39.55 | 39.5544238270231 | -0.0502183701235838 | -0.00301228352088342 | -0.508267825735278 |
| 55 | 39.36 | 39.3667107916579 | -0.0765232218571488 | -0.00299400490547728 | -1.33832870702638 |
| 56 | 39.28 | 39.2831826190994 | -0.0778633576636562 | -0.00299325297617586 | -0.06818602114093 |
