| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[65]) |
| 53 | 469357 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 477580 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 528379 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 533590 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 517945 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 506174 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 501866 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 516141 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 528222 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 62 | 532638 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 63 | 536322 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 64 | 536535 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 65 | 523597 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 66 | 536214 | 532877.5129 | 517610.5327 | 548144.4931 | 0.3342 | 0.8833 | 1 | 0.8833 |
| 67 | 586570 | 590278.8524 | 566768.2994 | 613789.4055 | 0.3786 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 68 | 596594 | 601767.9847 | 570697.3535 | 632838.6158 | 0.3721 | 0.8312 | 1 | 1 |
| 69 | 580523 | 590494.0868 | 552084.0459 | 628904.1276 | 0.3054 | 0.3778 | 0.9999 | 0.9997 |
| 70 | 564478 | 581381.2046 | 535716.9407 | 627045.4685 | 0.2341 | 0.5147 | 0.9994 | 0.9934 |
| 71 | 557560 | 577168.1126 | 524288.0188 | 630048.2064 | 0.2337 | 0.681 | 0.9974 | 0.9765 |
| 72 | 575093 | 591562.2152 | 531490.049 | 651634.3814 | 0.2955 | 0.8664 | 0.9931 | 0.9867 |
| 73 | 580112 | 604373.1896 | 537131.2564 | 671615.1227 | 0.2397 | 0.8033 | 0.9868 | 0.9907 |
| 74 | 574761 | 608126.7986 | 533741.5017 | 682512.0954 | 0.1897 | 0.7698 | 0.9767 | 0.987 |
| 75 | 563250 | 609465.9831 | 527970.0301 | 690961.9362 | 0.1332 | 0.798 | 0.9607 | 0.9805 |
| 76 | 551531 | 611535.7165 | 522968.6887 | 700102.7442 | 0.0921 | 0.8574 | 0.9515 | 0.9742 |
| 77 | 537034 | 599852.4847 | 504260.6517 | 695444.3176 | 0.0989 | 0.8391 | 0.941 | 0.941 |
| 78 | 544686 | 609917.8447 | 503005.6058 | 716830.0836 | 0.1159 | 0.9093 | 0.9117 | 0.9432 |
| 79 | 600991 | 668050.5806 | 549669.2597 | 786431.9014 | 0.1334 | 0.9794 | 0.9113 | 0.9916 |
| 80 | 604378 | 680221.2985 | 550277.5571 | 810165.04 | 0.1263 | 0.884 | 0.8964 | 0.9909 |
| 81 | 586111 | 669582.568 | 528026.8993 | 811138.2367 | 0.1239 | 0.8167 | 0.8912 | 0.9784 |
| 82 | 563668 | 661061.5962 | 507879.6588 | 814243.5336 | 0.1064 | 0.8312 | 0.8917 | 0.9607 |
| 83 | 548604 | 657400.1033 | 492606.0267 | 822194.1799 | 0.0978 | 0.8675 | 0.8825 | 0.9442 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 66 | 0.0146 | 0.0063 | 0 | 11132146.2376 | 0 | 0 |
| 67 | 0.0203 | -0.0063 | 0.0063 | 13755586.347 | 12443866.2923 | 3527.5865 |
| 68 | 0.0263 | -0.0086 | 0.007 | 26770117.2213 | 17219283.2686 | 4149.6124 |
| 69 | 0.0332 | -0.0169 | 0.0095 | 99422571.0209 | 37770105.2067 | 6145.7388 |
| 70 | 0.0401 | -0.0291 | 0.0134 | 285718326.5806 | 87359749.4815 | 9346.6438 |
| 71 | 0.0467 | -0.034 | 0.0168 | 384478080.0151 | 136879471.2371 | 11699.55 |
| 72 | 0.0518 | -0.0278 | 0.0184 | 271235049.0289 | 156073125.2073 | 12492.923 |
| 73 | 0.0568 | -0.0401 | 0.0211 | 588605318.6757 | 210139649.3909 | 14496.1943 |
| 74 | 0.0624 | -0.0549 | 0.0249 | 1113276515.0044 | 310488190.0146 | 17620.6751 |
| 75 | 0.0682 | -0.0758 | 0.03 | 2135917097.3709 | 493031080.7502 | 22204.3032 |
| 76 | 0.0739 | -0.0981 | 0.0362 | 3600566000.3892 | 775534255.2629 | 27848.4157 |
| 77 | 0.0813 | -0.1047 | 0.0419 | 3946162018.4797 | 1039753235.5309 | 32245.2048 |
| 78 | 0.0894 | -0.107 | 0.0469 | 4255193562.5072 | 1287094799.1445 | 35876.1035 |
| 79 | 0.0904 | -0.1004 | 0.0507 | 4496987345.608 | 1516372838.1776 | 38940.6322 |
| 80 | 0.0975 | -0.1115 | 0.0548 | 5752205929.2727 | 1798761710.9173 | 42411.811 |
| 81 | 0.1079 | -0.1247 | 0.0591 | 6967502663.7311 | 2121808020.4681 | 46063.0874 |
| 82 | 0.1182 | -0.1473 | 0.0643 | 9485512574.9958 | 2554967111.9109 | 50546.6825 |
| 83 | 0.1279 | -0.1655 | 0.0699 | 11836592098.8873 | 3070612944.5207 | 55413.1117 |
