Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.194972412796345 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 41.33 | 41.6101522435898 | -0.280152243589754 |
14 | 41.29 | 41.2866768648019 | 0.0033231351981442 |
15 | 41.29 | 41.2916768648019 | -0.00167686480186546 |
16 | 41.27 | 41.2758435314685 | -0.00584353146854255 |
17 | 41.04 | 41.0658435314685 | -0.0258435314685244 |
18 | 40.9 | 40.9475101981352 | -0.0475101981352068 |
19 | 40.89 | 40.7629268648019 | 0.127073135198138 |
20 | 40.72 | 40.8283435314685 | -0.108343531468527 |
21 | 40.72 | 40.7058435314685 | 0.0141564685314677 |
22 | 40.58 | 40.6666768648019 | -0.0866768648018663 |
23 | 40.24 | 40.6100101981352 | -0.370010198135191 |
24 | 40.07 | 40.2095935314685 | -0.139593531468542 |
25 | 40.12 | 40.0591768648019 | 0.0608231351981345 |
26 | 40.1 | 40.0766768648019 | 0.0233231351981473 |
27 | 40.1 | 40.1016768648019 | -0.00167686480186546 |
28 | 40.08 | 40.0858435314685 | -0.00584353146854966 |
29 | 40.06 | 39.8758435314685 | 0.184156468531484 |
30 | 39.99 | 39.9675101981352 | 0.0224898018647934 |
31 | 40.05 | 39.8529268648019 | 0.197073135198131 |
32 | 39.66 | 39.9883435314685 | -0.328343531468526 |
33 | 39.66 | 39.6458435314685 | 0.0141564685314677 |
34 | 39.67 | 39.6066768648019 | 0.0633231351981394 |
35 | 39.56 | 39.7000101981352 | -0.140010198135194 |
36 | 39.64 | 39.5295935314685 | 0.110406468531458 |
37 | 39.73 | 39.6291768648019 | 0.100823135198134 |
38 | 39.7 | 39.6866768648019 | 0.0133231351981493 |
39 | 39.7 | 39.7016768648019 | -0.00167686480186546 |
40 | 39.68 | 39.6858435314685 | -0.00584353146854966 |
41 | 39.76 | 39.4758435314685 | 0.284156468531478 |
42 | 40 | 39.6675101981352 | 0.332489801864796 |
43 | 39.96 | 39.8629268648019 | 0.097073135198137 |
44 | 40.01 | 39.8983435314685 | 0.111656468531471 |
45 | 40.01 | 39.9958435314685 | 0.0141564685314677 |
46 | 40.01 | 39.9566768648019 | 0.0533231351981343 |
47 | 40 | 40.0400101981352 | -0.0400101981351924 |
48 | 39.91 | 39.9695935314685 | -0.0595935314685434 |
49 | 39.86 | 39.8991768648019 | -0.0391768648018598 |
50 | 39.79 | 39.8166768648019 | -0.0266768648018569 |
51 | 39.79 | 39.7916768648019 | -0.00167686480186546 |
52 | 39.8 | 39.7758435314685 | 0.0241564685314515 |
53 | 39.64 | 39.5958435314685 | 0.044156468531483 |
54 | 39.55 | 39.5475101981352 | 0.00248980186479031 |
55 | 39.36 | 39.4129268648019 | -0.0529268648018615 |
56 | 39.28 | 39.2983435314685 | -0.0183435314685241 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
57 | 39.2658435314685 | 39.0097350318951 | 39.521952031042 |
58 | 39.2125203962704 | 38.8503282827346 | 39.5747125098062 |
59 | 39.2425305944056 | 38.7989376608941 | 39.6861235279171 |
60 | 39.2121241258741 | 38.6999071267272 | 39.7243411250211 |
61 | 39.201300990676 | 38.6286249760142 | 39.7739770053378 |
62 | 39.1579778554778 | 38.530642712733 | 39.7853129982227 |
63 | 39.1596547202797 | 38.4820553217584 | 39.837254118801 |
64 | 39.1454982517483 | 38.4211140246766 | 39.8698824788199 |
65 | 38.9413417832168 | 38.1730162844963 | 39.7096672819372 |
66 | 38.848851981352 | 38.0389657945715 | 39.6587381681324 |
67 | 38.7117788461538 | 37.8623630474477 | 39.56119464486 |
68 | 38.6501223776224 | 37.7629365105994 | 39.5373082446454 |