| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 19876 | 19876 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 45335 | 23705.1625462047 | 5616.75220273153 | 21629.8374537953 | 0.377795414304257 |
| 3 | 48674 | 49924.2220719344 | 17299.1503055579 | -1250.22207193442 | 0.323492544118435 |
| 4 | 156392 | 118643.277343505 | 41742.0878286675 | 37748.7226564952 | 0.789228636195483 |
| 5 | 100837 | 137795.318779832 | 30205.5178236298 | -36958.3187798317 | -0.367820509206533 |
| 6 | 101605 | 126812.869648900 | 9132.46928179208 | -25207.8696488998 | -0.613684411245519 |
| 7 | 532850 | 350459.558185676 | 115664.421114603 | 182390.441814324 | 3.08504736453304 |
| 8 | 294189 | 406741.200278437 | 86369.1058814291 | -112552.200278437 | -0.86135391283276 |
| 9 | 80763 | 255397.689881801 | -31541.5340120403 | -174634.689881801 | -3.47143212212441 |
| 10 | 105995 | 118683.916325191 | -83889.6419868158 | -12688.9163251907 | -1.53680028047496 |
| 11 | 25045 | 11682.2177423321 | -95400.3097733684 | 13362.7822576679 | -0.337692294788612 |
| 12 | 90474 | 8578.67816380266 | -49443.8837383079 | 81895.3218361973 | 1.34858582023923 |
| 13 | 48481 | 23850.8408790019 | -17460.9106438383 | 24630.1591209981 | 0.944181517057383 |
| 14 | 50730 | 33836.8548505416 | -3814.14122048159 | 16893.1451494584 | 0.407154962785429 |
| 15 | 68694 | 63100.1360421316 | 12555.2461441109 | 5593.86395786844 | 0.478278592444982 |
| 16 | 207716 | 129052.841125707 | 38285.1891259769 | 78663.1588742928 | 0.749381345869228 |
| 17 | 99132 | 177105.578674991 | 42972.6437995942 | -77973.5786749907 | 0.139758478522345 |
| 18 | 104012 | 234895.571152292 | 50175.1171322573 | -130883.571152292 | 0.214131816162629 |
| 19 | 422632 | 227588.396832495 | 22243.2365240479 | 195043.603167505 | -0.817447379367588 |
| 20 | 364974 | 288810.070703244 | 41023.6983237166 | 76163.9292967561 | 0.54820571136675 |
| 21 | 82687 | 258982.193964013 | 7003.77461835468 | -176295.193964013 | -0.997398248842642 |
| 22 | 66834 | 148865.314897505 | -49297.108895649 | -82031.3148975048 | -1.65389196050231 |
| 23 | 28408 | 63317.1809415257 | -66742.2166687941 | -34909.1809415257 | -0.512602849346666 |
| 24 | 97073 | 19313.6236036491 | -55796.3401146214 | 77759.3763963509 | 0.321909185348457 |
| 25 | 40284 | 4584.49418177875 | -36002.3265655022 | 35699.5058182212 | 0.582794387586316 |
| 26 | 24421 | 9726.4336433907 | -16144.4713160555 | 14694.5663566093 | 0.58354973095151 |
| 27 | 116346 | 82780.0670155451 | 26748.6075381461 | 33565.9329844549 | 1.25454303229922 |
| 28 | 72120 | 64702.067017127 | 5351.53316359221 | 7417.93298287303 | -0.626322751446359 |
| 29 | 108751 | 134511.651981333 | 36051.6728168491 | -25760.6519813333 | 0.904954280000311 |
| 30 | 91738 | 202486.609624773 | 51322.9654287587 | -110748.609624773 | 0.451251783733253 |
| 31 | 402216 | 238150.195786869 | 43811.5559866347 | 164065.804213131 | -0.220837457595763 |
| 32 | 390070 | 263383.394349119 | 34925.1282819528 | 126686.605650881 | -0.260040486045174 |
| 33 | 106045 | 245406.391783566 | 9731.43421624283 | -139361.391783566 | -0.737320977478277 |
| 34 | 110070 | 199958.699285429 | -16491.9172303027 | -89888.6992854294 | -0.769511284026466 |
| 35 | 70668 | 139516.721833644 | -37387.9313008423 | -68848.7218336444 | -0.614610367114593 |
| 36 | 167841 | 103895.282026581 | -36546.6038619357 | 63945.7179734192 | 0.024767245211941 |
| 37 | 28607 | 43906.6921714098 | -47729.6669201649 | -15299.6921714098 | -0.328866951263245 |
| 38 | 95371 | 61223.7277646957 | -16706.2918465598 | 34147.2722353043 | 0.90989727424474 |
| 39 | 30605 | 22335.55907111 | -27253.3710211377 | 8269.44092888999 | -0.308720577161575 |
| 40 | 131063 | 89285.7195833525 | 17368.7702942773 | 41777.2804166475 | 1.30787450927381 |
| 41 | 81214 | 132342.072347160 | 29524.6514659624 | -51128.0723471596 | 0.357607747375734 |
| 42 | 85451 | 181030.376115630 | 38614.2063266881 | -95579.3761156303 | 0.267861474738855 |
| 43 | 455196 | 252992.540748519 | 54464.0991427527 | 202203.459251481 | 0.466046312004838 |
| 44 | 454570 | 302167.56145413 | 51952.9794877709 | 152402.438545870 | -0.0735885515555617 |
| 45 | 63114 | 245619.143715174 | 606.416079718307 | -182505.143715174 | -1.50325370118597 |
| 46 | 74287 | 168819.180736287 | -35933.3515807221 | -94532.1807362867 | -1.07172166660501 |
| 47 | 42350 | 106500.037859408 | -48387.3759783597 | -64150.0378594085 | -0.366190189097005 |
| 48 | 113375 | 45956.1712552038 | -54134.7014717675 | 67418.8287447962 | -0.169149952581934 |
