Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[338])
333	124.03	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
334	125.11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
335	125.46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
336	124.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
337	124.48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
338	124.76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
339	125.81	124.76	122.3557	127.1643	0.196	0.5	0.3877	0.5
340	124.95	124.76	121.3599	128.1601	0.4564	0.2725	0.3433	0.5
341	123.66	124.76	120.5957	128.9243	0.3023	0.4644	0.5113	0.5
342	122.66	124.76	119.9515	129.5685	0.196	0.6731	0.5454	0.5
343	119.34	124.76	119.3839	130.1361	0.0241	0.778	0.5	0.5
344	117.84	124.76	118.8708	130.6492	0.0106	0.9644	0.3634	0.5
345	120.97	124.76	118.3989	131.1211	0.1214	0.9835	0.4767	0.5
346	117.38	124.76	117.9597	131.5603	0.0167	0.8627	0.6244	0.5
347	118.06	124.76	117.5472	131.9728	0.0343	0.9775	0.7159	0.5
348	116.99	124.76	117.1571	132.3629	0.0226	0.9579	0.9188	0.5
349	115.55	124.76	116.786	132.734	0.0118	0.9719	0.9555	0.5
350	114.17	124.76	116.4314	133.0886	0.0063	0.9849	0.8138	0.5
351	115.32	124.76	116.0913	133.4287	0.0164	0.9917	0.9524	0.5
352	112.49	124.76	115.7641	133.7559	0.0038	0.9801	0.9278	0.5
353	111.93	124.76	115.4483	134.0717	0.0035	0.9951	0.949	0.5
354	112.08	124.76	115.143	134.377	0.0049	0.9955	0.9697	0.5
355	111.63	124.76	114.847	134.673	0.0047	0.9939	0.9819	0.5
356	109.53	124.76	114.5596	134.9604	0.0017	0.9942	0.9652	0.5
357	111.35	124.76	114.2801	135.2399	0.0061	0.9978	0.9891	0.5
358	110.79	124.76	114.0078	135.5122	0.0054	0.9927	0.9903	0.5
359	113.06	124.76	113.7423	135.7777	0.0187	0.9935	0.988	0.5
360	112.62	124.76	113.483	136.037	0.0174	0.979	0.9888	0.5
361	110.65	124.76	113.2296	136.2904	0.0082	0.9805	0.9952	0.5
362	112.36	124.76	112.9816	136.5384	0.0195	0.9906	0.9872	0.5
363	113.74	124.76	112.7387	136.7813	0.0362	0.9784	0.9886	0.5
364	111.73	124.76	112.5006	137.0194	0.0186	0.961	0.9693	0.5
365	109.86	124.76	112.2671	137.2529	0.0097	0.9795	0.9716	0.5
366	109.32	124.76	112.0378	137.4822	0.0087	0.9891	0.9851	0.5
367	109.99	124.76	111.8127	137.7073	0.0127	0.9903	0.9698	0.5
368	109.84	124.76	111.5913	137.9287	0.0132	0.986	0.9495	0.5
369	111.13	124.76	111.3736	138.1464	0.023	0.9855	0.9718	0.5
370	112.43	124.76	111.1594	138.3606	0.0378	0.9752	0.9841	0.5
371	111.77	124.76	110.9486	138.5714	0.0326	0.9599	0.9858	0.5
372	112.15	124.76	110.7409	138.7791	0.039	0.9653	0.9805	0.5
373	112.89	124.76	110.5362	138.9838	0.051	0.9589	0.9801	0.5
374	112.12	124.76	110.3344	139.1856	0.043	0.9466	0.968	0.5
375	113.1	124.76	110.1354	139.3846	0.0591	0.9549	0.9508	0.5
376	111.09	124.76	109.9391	139.5809	0.0353	0.9385	0.9571	0.5
377	110.76	124.76	109.7454	139.7746	0.0338	0.9628	0.9501	0.5
378	109.59	124.76	109.5541	139.9659	0.0253	0.9644	0.937	0.5
379	109.99	124.76	109.3652	140.1548	0.03	0.9733	0.9462	0.5
380	110.25	124.76	109.1786	140.3414	0.034	0.9684	0.9288	0.5
381	108.31	124.76	108.9942	140.5258	0.0204	0.9644	0.9554	0.5
382	108.79	124.76	108.8119	140.7081	0.0248	0.9784	0.9573	0.5
383	108.14	124.76	108.6317	140.8883	0.0217	0.9739	0.9674	0.5

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
339	0.0098	0.0084	0	1.1025	0	0
340	0.0139	0.0015	0.005	0.0361	0.5693	0.7545
341	0.017	-0.0088	0.0063	1.21	0.7829	0.8848
342	0.0197	-0.0168	0.0089	4.41	1.6897	1.2999
343	0.022	-0.0434	0.0158	29.3764	7.227	2.6883
344	0.0241	-0.0555	0.0224	47.8864	14.0036	3.7421
345	0.026	-0.0304	0.0236	14.3641	14.0551	3.749
346	0.0278	-0.0592	0.028	54.4644	19.1062	4.3711
347	0.0295	-0.0537	0.0309	44.89	21.9711	4.6873
348	0.0311	-0.0623	0.034	60.3729	25.8113	5.0805
349	0.0326	-0.0738	0.0376	84.8241	31.1761	5.5836
350	0.0341	-0.0849	0.0416	112.1481	37.9238	6.1582
351	0.0355	-0.0757	0.0442	89.1136	41.8614	6.47
352	0.0368	-0.0983	0.0481	150.5529	49.6251	7.0445
353	0.0381	-0.1028	0.0517	164.6089	57.2907	7.5691
354	0.0393	-0.1016	0.0548	160.7824	63.7589	7.9849
355	0.0405	-0.1052	0.0578	172.3969	70.1494	8.3755
356	0.0417	-0.1221	0.0614	231.9529	79.1385	8.896
357	0.0429	-0.1075	0.0638	179.8281	84.4379	9.189
358	0.044	-0.112	0.0662	195.1609	89.9741	9.4855
359	0.0451	-0.0938	0.0675	136.89	92.2082	9.6025
360	0.0461	-0.0973	0.0689	147.3796	94.716	9.7322
361	0.0472	-0.1131	0.0708	199.0921	99.2541	9.9626
362	0.0482	-0.0994	0.072	153.76	101.5251	10.076
363	0.0492	-0.0883	0.0726	121.4404	102.3217	10.1154
364	0.0501	-0.1044	0.0739	169.7809	104.9163	10.2429
365	0.0511	-0.1194	0.0755	222.01	109.2531	10.4524
366	0.052	-0.1238	0.0773	238.3936	113.8653	10.6708
367	0.0529	-0.1184	0.0787	218.1529	117.4614	10.838
368	0.0539	-0.1196	0.08	222.6064	120.9663	10.9985
369	0.0547	-0.1092	0.081	185.7769	123.0569	11.0931
370	0.0556	-0.0988	0.0815	152.0289	123.9623	11.1338
371	0.0565	-0.1041	0.0822	168.7401	125.3192	11.1946
372	0.0573	-0.1011	0.0828	159.0121	126.3102	11.2388
373	0.0582	-0.0951	0.0831	140.8969	126.7269	11.2573
374	0.059	-0.1013	0.0836	159.7696	127.6448	11.298
375	0.0598	-0.0935	0.0839	135.9556	127.8694	11.3079
376	0.0606	-0.1096	0.0846	186.8689	129.422	11.3764
377	0.0614	-0.1122	0.0853	196	131.1291	11.4512
378	0.0622	-0.1216	0.0862	230.1289	133.6041	11.5587
379	0.063	-0.1184	0.087	218.1529	135.6663	11.6476
380	0.0637	-0.1163	0.0877	210.5401	137.449	11.7239
381	0.0645	-0.1319	0.0887	270.6025	140.5456	11.8552
382	0.0652	-0.128	0.0896	255.0409	143.1478	11.9644
383	0.066	-0.1332	0.0906	276.2244	146.105	12.0874