Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[476])
471	113.18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
472	113.67	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
473	115.15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
474	114.41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
475	112.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
476	112.44	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
477	113.48	112.44	110.0896	114.7904	0.1929	0.5	0.1525	0.5
478	112.78	112.44	109.1161	115.7639	0.4206	0.2699	0.055	0.5
479	112.59	112.44	108.369	116.511	0.4712	0.435	0.1714	0.5
480	113.31	112.44	107.7393	117.1407	0.3584	0.4751	0.4272	0.5
481	113.21	112.44	107.1844	117.6956	0.387	0.3728	0.5	0.5
482	112.5	112.44	106.6828	118.1972	0.4919	0.3966	0.3616	0.5
483	113.72	112.44	106.2215	118.6585	0.3433	0.4925	0.4573	0.5
484	114.09	112.44	105.7921	119.0879	0.3133	0.3529	0.4824	0.5
485	113.97	112.44	105.3889	119.4911	0.3353	0.3232	0.4045	0.5
486	112.5	112.44	105.0075	119.8725	0.4937	0.3433	0.4195	0.5
487	111.28	112.44	104.6447	120.2353	0.3853	0.494	0.494	0.5
488	111.35	112.44	104.2981	120.5819	0.3965	0.61	0.379	0.5
489	110.92	112.44	103.9656	120.9144	0.3626	0.5995	0.3514	0.5
490	110.73	112.44	103.6457	121.2343	0.3516	0.6326	0.3666	0.5
491	109	112.44	103.3371	121.5429	0.2294	0.6436	0.4948	0.5

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
477	0.0107	0.0092	0	1.0816	0	0
478	0.0151	0.003	0.0061	0.1156	0.5986	0.7737
479	0.0185	0.0013	0.0045	0.0225	0.4066	0.6376
480	0.0213	0.0077	0.0053	0.7569	0.4942	0.703
481	0.0238	0.0068	0.0056	0.5929	0.5139	0.7169
482	0.0261	5e-04	0.0048	0.0036	0.4289	0.6549
483	0.0282	0.0114	0.0057	1.6384	0.6016	0.7757
484	0.0302	0.0147	0.0068	2.7225	0.8668	0.931
485	0.032	0.0136	0.0076	2.3409	1.0305	1.0152
486	0.0337	5e-04	0.0069	0.0036	0.9279	0.9632
487	0.0354	-0.0103	0.0072	1.3456	0.9658	0.9828
488	0.0369	-0.0097	0.0074	1.1881	0.9844	0.9921
489	0.0385	-0.0135	0.0079	2.3104	1.0864	1.0423
490	0.0399	-0.0152	0.0084	2.9241	1.2176	1.1035
491	0.0413	-0.0306	0.0099	11.8336	1.9254	1.3876