| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | ma1 | sar1 | sar2 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | -0.0051 | -0.0097 | -0.0033 | -0.0049 | -0.0096 | -0.0622 | -0.009 |
| (p-val) | (0.9997 ) | (0.9488 ) | (0.9828 ) | (0.9997 ) | (0.9836 ) | (0.1937 ) | (0.9846 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | -0.0102 | -0.0097 | -0.0033 | 0 | -0.0096 | -0.0621 | -0.009 |
| (p-val) | (0.8225 ) | (0.833 ) | (0.9424 ) | (NA ) | (0.9834 ) | (0.1944 ) | (0.9846 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | -0.0102 | -0.0097 | -0.0034 | 0 | -0.0187 | -0.0622 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0.8226 ) | (0.8321 ) | (0.9409 ) | (NA ) | (0.681 ) | (0.186 ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | -0.0102 | -0.0097 | 0 | 0 | -0.0188 | -0.0624 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0.8228 ) | (0.833 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0.6784 ) | (0.1843 ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | -0.0102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0186 | -0.0639 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (0.822 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0.6808 ) | (0.1682 ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0184 | -0.0629 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0.6852 ) | (0.1732 ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0624 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0.1763 ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 10 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 11 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 12 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 13 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 9.8829021514408 |
| 25.1727721362117 |
| -143.224749290191 |
| 137.299009879993 |
| -356.830797785976 |
| 8.73577374074307 |
| -562.757695748934 |
| -272.502931586513 |
| -122.29636417686 |
| -95.3176400264975 |
| 437.838155990306 |
| -132.254586972353 |
| -323.481254152358 |
| -100.079169834866 |
| -176.594062029674 |
| -179.298516652076 |
| 259.208413889482 |
| 226.799993088809 |
| 128.791030920731 |
| -75.6997889519106 |
| -397.71661374814 |
| -135.656282554545 |
| 113.110882164298 |
| -107.110152644543 |
| 93.4184352410888 |
| 215.989295398737 |
| 367.49191918076 |
| -99.5704527956987 |
| -253.342460781329 |
| -146.825360095868 |
| 266.496580798974 |
| -43.9724811325479 |
| -147.459808383219 |
| 80.4019595096013 |
| 306.764124861866 |
| -37.6159412038419 |
| 370.319918666718 |
| 180.305099205004 |
| 180.201012846463 |
| 220.430237603478 |
| -287.860479852892 |
| -104.702616971652 |
| 152.139640922538 |
| 155.432244311505 |
| 24.5936265213595 |
| -319.525768753207 |
| 292.762459327067 |
| 165.490368802721 |
| -2.4296621857451 |
| -139.366000536308 |
| 382.875693997246 |
| 214.813595399582 |
| -51.409237816454 |
| 135.577207012978 |
| 110.653533109465 |
| 10.5727686811715 |
| 207.328313919524 |
| 249.536183538232 |
| -68.8505522993543 |
| 205.70812050831 |
| -546.560582649917 |
| -284.530257845247 |
| 486.493995486841 |
| -39.514435192027 |
| 410.597562237765 |
| 95.3586953849259 |
| 316.674019285569 |
| -488.753594991385 |
| -70.6856897501727 |
| 118.603772077774 |
| -109.964071256035 |
| -305.717629160136 |
| 0.115301514530859 |
| -129.034983865266 |
| -256.201217427831 |
| -140.16739519337 |
| 23.4774801700292 |
| 181.986606561765 |
| -1.14688089370861 |
| -214.317082570723 |
| -261.368948315224 |
| 494.227696421889 |
| 271.799391495076 |
| 172.420674139113 |
| 147.18351899653 |
| -227.487416513597 |
| 238.750743547959 |
| 112.522081902066 |
| -83.542188957932 |
| -1.40094421723321 |
| -323.6358360407 |
| -194.475664867237 |
| -94.5102648946245 |
| 103.199730862031 |
| 257.896633237473 |
| 9.29723697670344 |
| -18.7339648516091 |
| 93.3973324879904 |
| 273.951390710062 |
| -178.542788372859 |
| 45.5624372844611 |
| 281.14764520602 |
| 124.785996132636 |
| -46.1086467414106 |
| 204.53699473908 |
| 39.4282679932035 |
| -3.68264802188257 |
| 189.933585661661 |
| -133.77135182877 |
| 31.6836970725595 |
| 200.328014634149 |
| -83.9002975681264 |
| 33.7654171453529 |
| -236.899608355485 |
| -192.956325298887 |
| -231.688050852507 |
| 44.9687775655947 |
| 209.918116261126 |
| -293.238260511046 |
| 75.6329590069107 |
| 55.8247276748507 |
| 82.5708222621747 |
| 26.625936782599 |
| -88.0382571673429 |
| 219.306342291242 |
| 146.677269702649 |
| -89.0322024154151 |
| -243.848107413192 |
| -309.78704160029 |
| 185.887533612943 |
| -396.76579781618 |
| -142.249549809934 |
| -276.086300597571 |
| 118.710311140091 |
| 212.923670269894 |
| 198.0277602953 |
| 157.524635253794 |
| -103.928056694542 |
| 351.199179035417 |
| -41.8212848385921 |
| -274.917107671602 |
| 261.062409817666 |
| 90.7323006793104 |
| 116.25522701185 |
| -157.314097182527 |
| -92.931114187884 |
| 14.8658110170979 |
| 220.083760509983 |
| 106.627120813591 |
| 53.6153411802572 |
| 168.767020765514 |
| 5.70402231245653 |
| -60.1416885363711 |
| 185.548577057796 |
| -216.385078600751 |
| -156.973185142943 |
| 278.151688835967 |
| -289.025501957786 |
| -412.095129412563 |
| 187.061948192986 |
| -232.331584627925 |
| 241.580601841515 |
| 8.31862180781488 |
| 227.721424091698 |
| -94.682128239864 |
| -123.799510075575 |
| -93.3976145744179 |
| 159.146612275674 |
| -283.329965580411 |
| 36.2772912172818 |
| -266.855014899779 |
| 144.450891812383 |
| -2.30812555226413 |
| 149.779965623523 |
| 32.195864374609 |
| 80.1359072224209 |
| -39.6789559981208 |
| -190.702488966218 |
| -65.4640856242308 |
| 150.089597532049 |
| -117.930816689242 |
| 284.815276599592 |
| -33.0149902109166 |
| 210.856741275588 |
| -55.888908287107 |
| -14.9733905149322 |
| -175.685358263032 |
| -208.136505187009 |
| -224.519145699523 |
| -27.4233322327779 |
| 18.0758748523778 |
| -27.0343571689969 |
| -128.369846870053 |
| 235.316351677703 |
| -34.27093333877 |
| -82.260441504908 |
| -44.3676818431904 |
| 88.5385147178837 |
| 274.100969603567 |
| 2.35873273819514 |
| 58.9411910250174 |
| 103.12792277612 |
| 232.146734911865 |
| 23.3616427872956 |
| -22.4104199658228 |
| 40.6964521023383 |
| 169.064604762783 |
| 177.062982707857 |
| 37.1972526227794 |
| -188.12156172169 |
| -335.965303169582 |
| 64.6985392817552 |
| -58.7833131756977 |
| -265.834125285238 |
| -109.45782497938 |
| 321.114648782128 |
| 10.6825777816471 |
| 82.677986527417 |
| 9.04156200899286 |
| -58.7694176838751 |
| 72.9215808929548 |
| -120.212728710027 |
| -130.898548536657 |
| 62.8100997472963 |
| -202.516780366414 |
| 117.538200512134 |
| -207.253068388893 |
| -23.2014601893583 |
| 179.574015836321 |
| -74.1192628381963 |
| -66.629435109048 |
| -222.323071658185 |
| -235.519758662713 |
| 91.1816264217832 |
| 178.063831976795 |
| 87.2713707249523 |
| 237.012429752848 |
| -15.6868518440433 |
| 35.9978166763836 |
| -389.194109341018 |
| -130.811616121024 |
| 4.81989561785278 |
| 153.454501852376 |
| -235.043887086269 |
| 113.508467156955 |
| 64.442727566805 |
| -187.741671958057 |
| 61.1449605816768 |
| 65.2611073058485 |
| 87.1647787516664 |
| 10.4474898235405 |
| 120.647107221573 |
| 30.4449160538532 |
| 74.3539034811562 |
| -7.54605350236868 |
| 129.015502334244 |
| 58.7784304274092 |
| -163.576874023971 |
| 27.1599644977489 |
| 132.537479900087 |
| -20.61352549257 |
| 142.999466329536 |
| -281.390882951229 |
| 99.9206567807762 |
| -22.5539671647098 |
| -318.069841080452 |
| -61.0641849109393 |
| -92.462903064181 |
| -170.682445898258 |
| 81.6570457604835 |
| -269.795177896094 |
| 66.6585561379122 |
| -230.253454397422 |
| -47.2970991913563 |
| 59.2295228156541 |
| -51.3925870429309 |
| -85.1973014927171 |
| 83.3782113080257 |
| 67.7446602448548 |
| -150.599879494797 |
| -481.152420915677 |
| -56.7100071148916 |
| 178.4540889762 |
| -59.7330876936225 |
| 6.67031476961107 |
| -102.8048428167 |
| 7.87732594755434 |
| 42.9524857920783 |
| 296.664644693889 |
| -211.910718297252 |
| 97.3479361384955 |
| 26.8476745656295 |
| -160.896610157745 |
| -151.933721068383 |
| -213.94776153755 |
| 30.6494531304762 |
| -34.717685737759 |
| 3.75583048259215 |
| 77.9349473034278 |
| -46.7728292049959 |
| 96.233745987631 |
| 289.678279678548 |
| -264.247813145797 |
| 197.868836404557 |
| 85.209534698684 |
| 108.671566279121 |
| -41.6235675102775 |
| -11.5725498525807 |
| 34.35260529218 |
| -162.031058474254 |
| -62.4167831575483 |
| -212.968729548336 |
| 114.369135101023 |
| 79.0707084732375 |
| 124.613901759207 |
| 87.9474785743971 |
| 106.954930514092 |
| 6.58758865247771 |
| 167.942955927099 |
| 41.7188934016035 |
| -39.7043702853742 |
| -161.528330825655 |
| -178.642132759716 |
| 234.919710674531 |
| 251.220898037525 |
| -91.320958908944 |
| 167.238840123492 |
| -183.613183133463 |
| -119.284293339932 |
| -259.415238414914 |
| 263.365933583769 |
| -107.356912197852 |
| -102.083233454655 |
| 172.183625600811 |
| 66.6143577697381 |
| -117.45516996951 |
| -22.1330436474654 |
| 29.4319777662165 |
| 146.096733193449 |
| -142.766386139072 |
| -171.52161926893 |
| -150.730101590288 |
| -478.138932327139 |
| -199.799030443454 |
| 443.374425759606 |
| -510.935214060447 |
| 92.4058259170807 |
| -145.784701736162 |
| -188.090205972288 |
| -195.293858665036 |
| 144.29140714511 |
| -390.466345562635 |
| -103.958258144308 |
| 6.82916225309702 |
| -32.1975249719658 |
| -307.056576040527 |
| 244.474962904346 |
| -83.0451806805802 |
| 288.830961002997 |
| -70.5029289344419 |
| -251.020708763124 |
| 202.299933347073 |
| 180.098554414015 |
| -267.169156603378 |
| -249.57008406883 |
| -87.499025447688 |
| 102.158609116072 |
| -24.1845667693807 |
| 187.964390497348 |
| 168.605543764332 |
| -103.963447036411 |
| 64.5427596671194 |
| 110.179565402546 |
| -119.388417370059 |
| 115.392920435408 |
| -271.427811867371 |
| -37.9837065497413 |
| -154.265213342602 |
| 62.7162606865224 |
| 44.7467212439024 |
| -257.380665482884 |
| 65.100463597948 |
| -77.6783748631023 |
| 219.02952445611 |
| 14.6856799876608 |
| 52.6716167271928 |
| -120.277525060799 |
| 243.625365108596 |
| 50.9203006481278 |
| -64.0422233039901 |
| -68.4615369800063 |
| 207.848715521541 |
| 77.6043363811025 |
| -62.1013481338016 |
| 40.4544615956784 |
| -173.806476816936 |
| -4.6931563989365 |
| 22.4152173474262 |
| 123.805941192717 |
| -26.7694577706602 |
| 194.842148006418 |
| 42.3828540779969 |
| -44.6688267878656 |
| -141.392836532752 |
| 89.4450152319165 |
| 21.0987516252915 |
| -78.9244950680549 |
| 99.668976979859 |
| -62.2670372541404 |
| 44.1984113796206 |
| -21.1835419268396 |
| -352.304472193776 |
| -141.600927210998 |
| 27.937495152024 |
| -32.3398269104383 |
| 24.1388060898737 |
| 30.2717462974955 |
| -8.15846095366446 |
| -170.42737644392 |
| -37.1097262970396 |
| -262.466370653915 |
| 15.9061844418859 |
| 75.3186867263258 |
| 77.728374472026 |
| -27.9760120958033 |
| -58.654579590975 |
| 62.2331400661732 |
| 33.6997394202275 |
| 62.9263944381416 |
| 2.66248401700575 |
| -216.077830946214 |
| -54.7854800503329 |
| 11.5805617978099 |
| 52.9820108751535 |
| 106.9397401315 |
| -86.8168896934736 |
| 522.11562102648 |
| 119.821803081602 |
| 11.2097316656699 |
| 12.2721463846916 |
| -15.128333130577 |
| 141.826781984961 |
| -86.459735517564 |
| 97.908462080307 |
| 49.7197875813875 |
| -45.4492831060915 |
| 117.019703838967 |
| -15.5443648602552 |
| 78.6296758660052 |
| -20.8666157884524 |
| 94.5900045256564 |
| 33.5246735705698 |
| 10.898221499247 |
| -114.746623146289 |
| 6.7341671513744 |
| -122.367571903719 |
| 123.78748937198 |
| 25.6190053423944 |
| -15.4079195700951 |
| -173.512568709149 |
| 27.339066495731 |
| -74.6759842278556 |
| 143.004299551815 |
| -70.635142718731 |
| 4.27387551033689 |
| -20.8797232235005 |
| -36.7453465715736 |
| -26.341512288475 |
| -94.3588798466038 |
| -1.45965224601878 |
| 166.693522266067 |
| 61.0381367391743 |
| 209.139584795657 |
| -104.36886234208 |
| -205.546514969949 |
| -59.5580463895182 |
| 136.374390927212 |
| -95.5210929227566 |
| -31.1724435640487 |
| 96.8922765821132 |
| -3.08929330578903 |
| -90.7966815700197 |
| 175.904639830942 |
| 43.6022744944424 |
| -29.0347932189484 |
| -200.749913303746 |
| -153.133867227745 |
| 3.38901553561396 |
| -58.2705148202512 |
| -18.9738628248714 |
| -226.558351063969 |
