| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 27951 | 27951 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 29781 | 29682.28089074 | 94.8360384507106 | 98.7191092600225 | 0.51836229665984 |
| 3 | 32914 | 32768.5927317710 | 109.952745875076 | 145.407268229052 | 1.49314800553482 |
| 4 | 33488 | 33382.2670313682 | 111.910722440966 | 105.732968631828 | 0.251395316546961 |
| 5 | 35652 | 35508.9611128197 | 120.063512052557 | 143.038887180342 | 1.00551777214031 |
| 6 | 36488 | 36364.2112291855 | 123.031961438393 | 123.788770814542 | 0.366906790447081 |
| 7 | 35387 | 35286.7977561584 | 118.205145056431 | 100.202243841615 | -0.599097013549521 |
| 8 | 35676 | 35550.4022677571 | 118.787427597167 | 125.597732242853 | 0.0725627643357 |
| 9 | 34844 | 34741.0712000567 | 115.085404527458 | 102.928799943287 | -0.463181637887929 |
| 10 | 32447 | 32368.885179749 | 105.203741201730 | 78.1148202510191 | -1.24127416544803 |
| 11 | 31068 | 30976.9911953722 | 99.2794685790046 | 91.0088046277702 | -0.747121686018512 |
| 12 | 29010 | 28939.4990829648 | 90.8572249986265 | 70.5009170352003 | -1.06634066888066 |
| 13 | 29812 | 30226.2415092521 | 40.5280262815244 | -414.241509252065 | 0.718690690273583 |
| 14 | 30951 | 30918.2919915256 | 56.0286172369355 | 32.7080084743938 | 0.277682339239381 |
| 15 | 32974 | 32835.7762374909 | 62.025594903121 | 138.223762509147 | 0.927954184715646 |
| 16 | 32936 | 32916.5017034207 | 62.0577876371485 | 19.4982965793303 | 0.00932278959246116 |
| 17 | 34012 | 33916.8231038954 | 63.841483510242 | 95.17689610465 | 0.467763200097136 |
| 18 | 32946 | 32901.3890689135 | 61.768345041894 | 44.6109310864618 | -0.538063041200826 |
| 19 | 31948 | 31928.2379165700 | 59.7852300941277 | 19.7620834300432 | -0.515948985858539 |
| 20 | 30599 | 30559.4763579898 | 57.0535112408657 | 39.5236420101598 | -0.712186748607805 |
| 21 | 27691 | 27685.9107642143 | 51.46093704069 | 5.0892357857162 | -1.46102588532150 |
| 22 | 25073 | 25083.6848836642 | 46.3976557473744 | -10.6848836641880 | -1.32296616566363 |
| 23 | 23406 | 23361.4680611027 | 42.894866863837 | 44.531938897319 | -0.881791801049781 |
| 24 | 22248 | 22251.9903765833 | 41.1956829224418 | -3.99037658332042 | -0.574324122196805 |
| 25 | 22896 | 23120.2135022814 | 25.4458543024650 | -224.213502281417 | 0.451690573017219 |
| 26 | 25317 | 25278.9406591456 | 57.1481213243799 | 38.0593408543575 | 0.971641505830082 |
| 27 | 26558 | 26399.7861024948 | 60.2238543020195 | 158.213897505177 | 0.529915378754457 |
| 28 | 26471 | 26494.2208219606 | 60.2624444233553 | -23.2208219606183 | 0.0170509271014414 |
| 29 | 27543 | 27405.062687616 | 61.3464474506505 | 137.937312384023 | 0.423921795119697 |
| 30 | 26198 | 26194.516053605 | 59.6691727057241 | 3.48394639502692 | -0.633900608277372 |
| 31 | 24725 | 24733.6650434893 | 57.6659459002131 | -8.66504348929647 | -0.757814272322515 |
| 32 | 25005 | 24895.2434277214 | 57.8025609245567 | 109.756572278608 | 0.0517890242693413 |
| 33 | 23462 | 23454.4436997389 | 55.8359425373988 | 7.55630026111686 | -0.746888697081925 |
| 34 | 20780 | 20825.4435136019 | 52.2789042354535 | -45.44351360195 | -1.33811259145104 |
| 35 | 19815 | 19735.8647372108 | 50.6397187748101 | 79.1352627891573 | -0.569171531258271 |
| 36 | 19761 | 19757.0523196860 | 50.623861437004 | 3.94768031397104 | -0.0146718322625776 |
| 37 | 21454 | 21689.1024410216 | 28.2399228519063 | -235.102441021584 | 0.99319748823325 |
| 38 | 23899 | 23843.3372696162 | 50.6746348202733 | 55.6627303837962 | 0.996934222493038 |
| 39 | 24939 | 24773.2685533234 | 53.1525887745397 | 165.731446676632 | 0.437757322797109 |
| 40 | 23580 | 23711.4643688471 | 52.1469065672969 | -131.464368847107 | -0.555642364501479 |
| 41 | 24562 | 24366.4883085005 | 52.7350272111579 | 195.511691499461 | 0.300428788389833 |
| 42 | 24696 | 24647.0782174924 | 52.9725387584714 | 48.9217825075527 | 0.113545422278442 |
| 43 | 23785 | 23857.5768482635 | 52.0908788412837 | -72.5768482635257 | -0.419824893138959 |
| 44 | 23812 | 23683.9605008225 | 51.8553693419524 | 128.039499177493 | -0.112475219750298 |
| 45 | 21917 | 21910.2162483119 | 49.9526058594936 | 6.78375168808923 | -0.909738403324164 |
| 46 | 19713 | 19790.8026619157 | 47.6256539299926 | -77.8026619156559 | -1.08107773620776 |
| 47 | 19282 | 19183.3386404351 | 46.8545659790069 | 98.6613595648733 | -0.326503671533992 |
| 48 | 18788 | 18840.8666103537 | 46.8554931705810 | -52.8666103537255 | -0.193917984590527 |
| 49 | 21453 | 21599.1628482036 | 24.2214124404718 | -146.162848203643 | 1.40610889833399 |
| 50 | 24482 | 24388.8539724248 | 46.3347691212448 | 93.1460275751863 | 1.31841346638564 |
| 51 | 27474 | 27166.415802301 | 53.9638164133367 | 307.584197699019 | 1.35896161383151 |
| 52 | 27264 | 27446.5023344734 | 54.1504057658739 | -182.502334473404 | 0.112684657972148 |
| 53 | 27349 | 27192.3396652975 | 53.9028964930585 | 156.660334702478 | -0.153629386590793 |
| 54 | 30632 | 30398.4988375935 | 56.6913367178663 | 233.501162406494 | 1.57072476721767 |
| 55 | 29429 | 29593.3306442746 | 55.918298926904 | -164.330644274645 | -0.429452906865215 |
| 56 | 30084 | 29885.1916850191 | 56.1291767609185 | 198.808314980893 | 0.117566974594700 |
| 57 | 26290 | 26371.9154758604 | 52.9316217281738 | -81.9154758604054 | -1.77858825636033 |
| 58 | 24379 | 24470.5188504821 | 51.0857827839165 | -91.5188504821072 | -0.973866412523855 |
| 59 | 23335 | 23212.7903587817 | 49.7684304480313 | 122.209641218336 | -0.652280140643474 |
| 60 | 21346 | 21545.5943826743 | 50.3704437764581 | -199.594382674281 | -0.855219698479139 |
| 61 | 21106 | 21544.4730359414 | 50.68993049794 | -438.473035941421 | -0.0264114748618946 |
| 62 | 24514 | 24419.3552595546 | 68.4921058501969 | 94.644740445389 | 1.36078341621955 |
| 63 | 28353 | 27882.3547197156 | 77.8674378428548 | 470.645280284411 | 1.68801480066011 |
| 64 | 30805 | 30819.1248034752 | 80.2129512347226 | -14.1248034751846 | 1.42467365438998 |
| 65 | 31348 | 31339.9153776956 | 80.5192635464923 | 8.08462230441458 | 0.219527011648791 |
| 66 | 34556 | 34138.1332998102 | 82.6420571643498 | 417.866700189775 | 1.35412856207817 |
| 67 | 33855 | 34089.5824779966 | 82.5366727843818 | -234.582477996617 | -0.0653685461928826 |
| 68 | 34787 | 34416.3352821983 | 82.732427108663 | 370.664717801661 | 0.121683780352055 |
| 69 | 32529 | 32613.1578142303 | 81.2060269233796 | -84.1578142302568 | -0.93968564897635 |
| 70 | 29998 | 30125.0177280624 | 78.9666936058242 | -127.01772806242 | -1.28031142489592 |
| 71 | 29257 | 29037.0952895507 | 77.953433829972 | 219.904710449300 | -0.581506741494442 |
| 72 | 28155 | 28349.4964960859 | 78.3957169730201 | -194.49649608592 | -0.381369121001335 |
| 73 | 30466 | 30966.7437750562 | 66.2895789615917 | -500.743775056215 | 1.29268001433998 |
| 74 | 35704 | 35566.549896975 | 89.439680665689 | 137.450103025029 | 2.20042294842791 |
| 75 | 39327 | 38851.1931906872 | 98.102107893078 | 475.806809312848 | 1.58811285119202 |
| 76 | 39351 | 39372.6021987073 | 98.462311098805 | -21.6021987073439 | 0.210945071873762 |
| 77 | 42234 | 42206.5373015617 | 100.180001692893 | 27.4626984383219 | 1.36297836136539 |
| 78 | 43630 | 43182.2672408017 | 100.798766967937 | 447.732759198269 | 0.436241182839662 |
| 79 | 43722 | 43960.7554822547 | 101.29928472723 | -238.755482254735 | 0.337656651238612 |
| 80 | 43121 | 42754.3600606516 | 100.330791053466 | 366.639939348429 | -0.651555003009512 |
| 81 | 37985 | 38182.4547555863 | 96.7980551280977 | -197.454755586278 | -2.3279650212383 |
| 82 | 37135 | 37176.8500551442 | 95.8897594441837 | -41.8500551441562 | -0.549326422101257 |
| 83 | 34646 | 34452.8108745571 | 93.7871355597005 | 193.189125442858 | -1.40517461792608 |
| 84 | 33026 | 33337.2292170418 | 94.6588430202405 | -311.229217041816 | -0.602561324746505 |
| 85 | 35087 | 35768.8279801351 | 85.9113120293703 | -681.82798013511 | 1.18369035757649 |
| 86 | 38846 | 38738.8918337041 | 98.0919003115706 | 107.108166295946 | 1.40725563686474 |
| 87 | 42013 | 41419.5793453686 | 104.912753387668 | 593.420654631368 | 1.28310811028131 |
| 88 | 43908 | 43956.0789094090 | 107.09307957202 | -48.0789094090447 | 1.21171071519646 |
| 89 | 42868 | 42984.9407026375 | 106.459270030257 | -116.940702637490 | -0.537235227484615 |
| 90 | 44423 | 43981.477257874 | 107.038038139085 | 441.522742125986 | 0.443470757627863 |
| 91 | 44167 | 44372.5566931015 | 107.234079852451 | -205.556693101469 | 0.141519445380485 |
| 92 | 43636 | 43126.5326652158 | 106.289080321448 | 509.467334784168 | -0.674242192971694 |
| 93 | 44382 | 44455.3770897801 | 107.172113946131 | -73.3770897801168 | 0.609137269797436 |
| 94 | 42142 | 42173.1122404364 | 105.291190388622 | -31.1122404363553 | -1.19065244492877 |
| 95 | 43452 | 43075.6437547926 | 105.796580571879 | 376.356245207435 | 0.397235152210692 |
| 96 | 36912 | 37649.3109002936 | 110.242939655890 | -737.31090029361 | -2.75681604350344 |
| 97 | 42413 | 42907.1649494333 | 94.8993543419254 | -494.164949433344 | 2.59742205681868 |
| 98 | 45344 | 45281.75980816 | 102.997750647593 | 62.2401918399787 | 1.11666392924856 |
| 99 | 44873 | 44516.615015337 | 100.778500105986 | 356.384984662992 | -0.431185016171642 |
| 100 | 47510 | 47338.7292248506 | 103.353928343971 | 171.270775149402 | 1.35606617744812 |
| 101 | 49554 | 49625.356694267 | 104.591429604146 | -71.3566942669832 | 1.08782717577683 |
| 102 | 47369 | 47143.9651084185 | 103.023693284218 | 225.034891581489 | -1.28841969975429 |
| 103 | 45998 | 46178.2970615391 | 102.327034857192 | -180.297061539144 | -0.532450785968873 |
| 104 | 48140 | 47620.4042418157 | 103.221761452925 | 519.59575818425 | 0.667516941337503 |
| 105 | 48441 | 48373.4258842606 | 103.676524858266 | 67.5741157393927 | 0.323760894201202 |
| 106 | 44928 | 45232.5708672791 | 101.228893301080 | -304.570867279114 | -1.61674086575119 |
| 107 | 40454 | 40011.4602891734 | 98.3941335201582 | 442.539710826619 | -2.65172657964579 |
| 108 | 38661 | 39602.6910852558 | 98.821925900948 | -941.69108525583 | -0.252771362646512 |
| 109 | 37246 | 37977.8539511592 | 102.954148551263 | -731.853951159238 | -0.867264459380576 |
| 110 | 36843 | 36747.9030974461 | 98.9129959720952 | 95.0969025538642 | -0.654822958466854 |
| 111 | 36424 | 36233.8418678852 | 97.4040080170817 | 190.158132114839 | -0.304382248886342 |
| 112 | 37594 | 37489.3521050967 | 98.5549844284914 | 104.647894903251 | 0.57707263022763 |
| 113 | 38144 | 38058.1432698675 | 98.8179612267934 | 85.8567301325 | 0.234298201469984 |
| 114 | 38737 | 38439.6747727188 | 98.9796121306475 | 297.325227281149 | 0.140855795547079 |
| 115 | 34560 | 35055.1199188772 | 96.8183193452674 | -495.119918877217 | -1.73556801764712 |
| 116 | 36080 | 35590.0056522016 | 97.1008794344995 | 489.994347798436 | 0.218255562447603 |
| 117 | 33508 | 33438.3932535478 | 95.5631990315239 | 69.6067464522415 | -1.12041490746348 |
| 118 | 35462 | 35351.4401157643 | 96.8761909522797 | 110.559884235685 | 0.905641830767138 |
| 119 | 33374 | 33079.9985074426 | 95.829560534939 | 294.001492557447 | -1.17987807895508 |
| 120 | 32110 | 32953.188168884 | 96.019367993776 | -843.188168884005 | -0.110977418502929 |
| 121 | 35533 | 35928.7526075709 | 90.4283054349298 | -395.752607570913 | 1.44571717600499 |
| 122 | 35532 | 35435.7367009461 | 88.8989360356663 | 96.2632990539502 | -0.287281776231917 |
| 123 | 37903 | 37658.6719441792 | 93.9389609620354 | 244.328055820776 | 1.05953910091102 |
| 124 | 36763 | 36790.5197925477 | 92.9424054750085 | -27.519792547724 | -0.479375437775329 |
| 125 | 40399 | 40156.18573854 | 94.7784017921807 | 242.814261459988 | 1.63066365106764 |
| 126 | 44164 | 43508.9733705444 | 96.554237379058 | 655.026629455609 | 1.62322339176908 |
| 127 | 44496 | 44989.3864197843 | 97.3764315853243 | -493.386419784322 | 0.689460505252176 |
| 128 | 43110 | 42675.1289511853 | 95.8636349374046 | 434.87104881475 | -1.20152562878502 |
| 129 | 43880 | 43845.5553947361 | 96.5846422656185 | 34.4446052638835 | 0.535399131003783 |
| 130 | 43930 | 43689.8020584478 | 96.4104914387764 | 240.197941552222 | -0.125737322721171 |
| 131 | 44327 | 43986.7393526032 | 96.483073773849 | 340.260647396822 | 0.0998952442065748 |
