| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.458869668369215 |
| beta | 0.0711214003368765 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 47 | 23 | 24 |
| 4 | 35 | 27.7961229221380 | 7.20387707786197 |
| 5 | 30 | 25.1201162836829 | 4.87988371631707 |
| 6 | 43 | 21.5369567996790 | 21.4630432003210 |
| 7 | 82 | 26.2637623545111 | 55.7362376454889 |
| 8 | 40 | 48.5364746639713 | -8.53647466397128 |
| 9 | 47 | 41.0377970698181 | 5.96220293018186 |
| 10 | 19 | 40.3867020508952 | -21.3867020508952 |
| 11 | 52 | 26.4880593551706 | 25.5119406448294 |
| 12 | 136 | 34.9423750299138 | 101.057624970086 |
| 13 | 80 | 81.3603752267783 | -1.36037522677834 |
| 14 | 42 | 80.7374651759678 | -38.7374651759678 |
| 15 | 54 | 61.6991275165035 | -7.69912751650345 |
| 16 | 66 | 56.6520770483874 | 9.34792295161262 |
| 17 | 81 | 59.7324746789973 | 21.2675253210027 |
| 18 | 63 | 68.9764916272027 | -5.9764916272027 |
| 19 | 137 | 65.5240100394252 | 71.4759899605748 |
| 20 | 72 | 99.9447743308188 | -27.9447743308188 |
| 21 | 107 | 87.832375102736 | 19.1676248972640 |
| 22 | 58 | 97.963971013387 | -39.9639710133869 |
| 23 | 36 | 79.6576288052268 | -43.6576288052268 |
| 24 | 52 | 58.231592561216 | -6.23159256121597 |
| 25 | 79 | 53.7758583083132 | 25.2241416916868 |
| 26 | 77 | 64.5774077007445 | 12.4225922992555 |
| 27 | 54 | 69.910131300781 | -15.910131300781 |
| 28 | 84 | 61.7225930700318 | 22.2774069299682 |
| 29 | 48 | 71.7851911184991 | -23.7851911184991 |
| 30 | 96 | 59.9348195802041 | 36.0651804197959 |
| 31 | 83 | 76.7249716959281 | 6.27502830407185 |
| 32 | 66 | 80.0501149833582 | -14.0501149833582 |
| 33 | 61 | 73.5901346383135 | -12.5901346383135 |
| 34 | 53 | 67.3892102379062 | -14.3892102379062 |
| 35 | 30 | 59.8931462137544 | -29.8931462137544 |
| 36 | 74 | 44.3072198501116 | 29.6927801498884 |
| 37 | 69 | 57.0325050989245 | 11.9674949010755 |
| 38 | 59 | 62.0147592058625 | -3.01475920586248 |
| 39 | 42 | 60.023723305792 | -18.023723305792 |
| 40 | 65 | 50.5573166448234 | 14.4426833551766 |
| 41 | 70 | 56.4601027609279 | 13.5398972390721 |
| 42 | 100 | 62.3905083965314 | 37.6094916034686 |
| 43 | 63 | 80.5931236260234 | -17.5931236260234 |
| 44 | 105 | 72.8907735460244 | 32.1092264539756 |
| 45 | 82 | 89.0432235276216 | -7.04322352762159 |
| 46 | 81 | 86.9999429771944 | -5.99994297719438 |
| 47 | 75 | 85.2395813676036 | -10.2395813676036 |
| 48 | 102 | 81.1996049153803 | 20.8003950846197 |
| 49 | 121 | 92.0817624881826 | 28.9182375118174 |
| 50 | 98 | 107.632711515764 | -9.63271151576438 |
| 51 | 76 | 105.179431440083 | -29.1794314400825 |
| 52 | 77 | 92.8044705004144 | -15.8044705004144 |
| 53 | 63 | 86.0510873912678 | -23.0510873912678 |
| 54 | 37 | 75.2201689045499 | -38.2201689045499 |
| 55 | 35 | 56.1812864736566 | -21.1812864736566 |
| 56 | 23 | 44.2697694858315 | -21.2697694858315 |
| 57 | 40 | 31.6235017569562 | 8.37649824304384 |
| 58 | 29 | 32.8543778871680 | -3.85437788716804 |
| 59 | 37 | 28.3470865737739 | 8.6529134262261 |
| 60 | 51 | 29.8614036303334 | 21.1385963696666 |
| 61 | 20 | 37.7948895549917 | -17.7948895549917 |
| 62 | 28 | 27.2822354163540 | 0.717764583645952 |
| 63 | 13 | 25.2879013155591 | -12.2879013155591 |
| 64 | 22 | 16.9246403860728 | 5.07535961392715 |
| 65 | 25 | 16.6944899032083 | 8.30551009679168 |
| 66 | 13 | 18.2176115888137 | -5.21761158881375 |
| 67 | 16 | 13.3651037914331 | 2.63489620856690 |
| 68 | 13 | 12.2018646752962 | 0.798135324703777 |
| 69 | 16 | 10.2218392096930 | 5.77816079030695 |
| 70 | 17 | 10.7155692750934 | 6.28443072490658 |
| 71 | 9 | 11.6467065034724 | -2.64670650347244 |
| 72 | 17 | 8.39323928698331 | 8.60676071301669 |
| 73 | 25 | 10.5845323781871 | 14.4154676218129 |
| 74 | 14 | 15.911720203901 | -1.91172020390099 |
| 75 | 8 | 13.6844669110252 | -5.68446691102515 |
| 76 | 7 | 9.54049943290813 | -2.54049943290813 |
| 77 | 10 | 6.75629291801707 | 3.24370708198293 |
| 78 | 7 | 6.73214317966675 | 0.267856820333247 |
| 79 | 10 | 5.35120764741106 | 4.64879235258894 |
| 80 | 3 | 6.13226599611504 | -3.13226599611504 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 81 | 3.24060975987728 | -43.5153135754138 | 49.9965330951684 |
| 82 | 1.78625538252099 | -50.3120403950252 | 53.8845511600672 |
| 83 | 0.331901005164704 | -57.242482346862 | 57.9062843571914 |
| 84 | -1.12245337219158 | -64.3087232375479 | 62.0638164931648 |
| 85 | -2.57680774954787 | -71.5113739159997 | 66.357758416904 |
| 86 | -4.03116212690416 | -78.85011362839 | 70.7877893745816 |
| 87 | -5.48551650426044 | -86.324026630373 | 75.3529936218522 |
| 88 | -6.93987088161673 | -93.9318176679625 | 80.052075904729 |
| 89 | -8.39422525897302 | -101.671953087355 | 84.8835025694094 |
| 90 | -9.8485796363293 | -109.542754867831 | 89.8455955951728 |
| 91 | -11.3029340136856 | -117.542464089393 | 94.9365960620216 |
| 92 | -12.7572883910419 | -125.669284130717 | 100.154707348633 |
