| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.422758923913050 |
| beta | 0.477844184477007 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 44720 | 8469 | 36251 |
| 4 | 39525 | 903.603143165987 | 38621.396856834 |
| 5 | 45315 | 2142.33283031470 | 43172.6671696853 |
| 6 | 50380 | 14026.5880606625 | 36353.4119393375 |
| 7 | 40600 | 30371.8002125007 | 10228.1997874993 |
| 8 | 36279 | 37738.5740196104 | -1459.57401961042 |
| 9 | 42438 | 39869.3843785059 | 2568.61562149406 |
| 10 | 38064 | 44222.0413286801 | -6158.04132868013 |
| 11 | 31879 | 43641.4224318185 | -11762.4224318185 |
| 12 | 11379 | 38315.3404237785 | -26936.3404237785 |
| 13 | 70249 | 21132.8611119413 | 49116.1388880587 |
| 14 | 39253 | 46024.3394358417 | -6771.33943584168 |
| 15 | 47060 | 45920.9896928555 | 1139.01030714453 |
| 16 | 41697 | 49391.9056625523 | -7694.9056625523 |
| 17 | 38708 | 47573.7346669561 | -8865.7346669561 |
| 18 | 49267 | 43469.5925507119 | 5797.40744928814 |
| 19 | 39018 | 46735.5756687651 | -7717.57566876514 |
| 20 | 32228 | 42728.9292775769 | -10500.9292775769 |
| 21 | 40870 | 35424.2722049161 | 5445.72779508385 |
| 22 | 39383 | 35961.3139439187 | 3421.68605608126 |
| 23 | 34571 | 36333.8986752910 | -1762.89867529104 |
| 24 | 12066 | 34158.5256828297 | -22092.5256828297 |
| 25 | 70938 | 18925.6464212140 | 52012.353578786 |
| 26 | 34077 | 45528.4322029733 | -11451.4322029733 |
| 27 | 45409 | 42987.9992492653 | 2421.00075073470 |
| 28 | 40809 | 46801.334489285 | -5992.33448928497 |
| 29 | 37013 | 45847.3283493461 | -8834.32834934613 |
| 30 | 44953 | 41907.1957137863 | 3045.80428621374 |
| 31 | 37848 | 43604.7869032431 | -5756.78690324306 |
| 32 | 32745 | 40418.0589357797 | -7673.05893577969 |
| 33 | 43412 | 34871.1530303936 | 8540.84696960635 |
| 34 | 34931 | 37904.1817449405 | -2973.18174494048 |
| 35 | 33008 | 35468.9310238346 | -2460.93102383461 |
| 36 | 8620 | 32753.0990701987 | -24133.0990701987 |
| 37 | 68906 | 15999.9675086998 | 52906.0324913002 |
| 38 | 39556 | 42503.5169980974 | -2947.51699809745 |
| 39 | 50669 | 44799.0435720099 | 5869.95642799015 |
| 40 | 36432 | 52008.0426043053 | -15576.0426043053 |
| 41 | 40891 | 47003.9927319350 | -6112.99273193495 |
| 42 | 48428 | 44765.6282924859 | 3662.37170751409 |
| 43 | 36222 | 47399.7327090261 | -11177.7327090261 |
| 44 | 33425 | 41502.0044273972 | -8077.00442739722 |
| 45 | 39401 | 35283.4776644658 | 4117.52233553418 |
| 46 | 37967 | 35052.0885133907 | 2914.91148660926 |
| 47 | 34801 | 34901.1345968503 | -100.134596850323 |
| 48 | 12657 | 33455.3145628964 | -20798.3145628964 |
| 49 | 69116 | 19057.6265404295 | 50058.3734595705 |
| 50 | 41519 | 44727.6725512194 | -3208.67255121942 |
| 51 | 51321 | 47230.406284969 | 4090.59371503098 |
| 52 | 38529 | 53645.3226421855 | -15116.3226421855 |
| 53 | 41547 | 48886.6516366273 | -7339.65163662735 |
| 54 | 52073 | 45932.9334346069 | 6140.0665653931 |
| 55 | 38401 | 49918.2590058089 | -11517.2590058089 |
| 56 | 40898 | 44112.157805532 | -3214.15780553204 |
| 57 | 40439 | 41166.9654162397 | -727.96541623972 |
| 58 | 41888 | 39125.7746461812 | 2762.22535381879 |
| 59 | 37898 | 39118.0983057955 | -1220.09830579548 |
| 60 | 8771 | 37180.3835116219 | -28409.3835116219 |
| 61 | 68184 | 18009.0940038727 | 50174.9059961273 |
| 62 | 50530 | 42195.992092592 | 8334.00790740797 |
| 63 | 47221 | 50377.8541793261 | -3156.85417932607 |
| 64 | 41756 | 53064.1265291758 | -11308.1265291758 |
| 65 | 45633 | 50019.9883947382 | -4386.98839473825 |
| 66 | 48138 | 49015.594952092 | -877.594952092048 |
| 67 | 39486 | 49317.5434094924 | -9831.5434094924 |
| 68 | 39341 | 43848.0317232249 | -4507.03172322489 |
| 69 | 41117 | 39719.026349529 | 1397.97365047099 |
| 70 | 41629 | 38368.8233951052 | 3260.17660489482 |
| 71 | 29722 | 38464.481066189 | -8742.48106618904 |
| 72 | 7054 | 31719.8142019803 | -24665.8142019803 |
| 73 | 56676 | 13260.6036654188 | 43415.3963345812 |
| 74 | 34870 | 32353.8022581639 | 2516.19774183613 |
| 75 | 35117 | 34664.804050695 | 452.195949305002 |
| 76 | 30169 | 36194.580078486 | -6025.58007848597 |
| 77 | 30936 | 33768.5736183887 | -2832.5736183887 |
| 78 | 35699 | 32120.2227414787 | 3578.77725852134 |
| 79 | 33228 | 33905.2868103312 | -677.286810331163 |
| 80 | 27733 | 33754.2411452307 | -6021.24114523068 |
| 81 | 33666 | 30127.6227514984 | 3538.37724850156 |
| 82 | 35429 | 31257.2161682204 | 4171.78383177962 |
| 83 | 27438 | 33497.3419922664 | -6059.34199226636 |
| 84 | 8170 | 30188.1028656064 | -22018.1028656064 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 15684.2145018833 | -20477.2935874267 | 51845.7225911932 |
| 86 | 10488.6756122307 | -32150.3248370596 | 53127.676061521 |
| 87 | 5293.13672257817 | -46783.3620783369 | 57369.6355234932 |
| 88 | 97.597832925625 | -63902.5230790567 | 64097.718744908 |
| 89 | -5097.94105672692 | -83052.8915909186 | 72857.0094774648 |
| 90 | -10293.4799463795 | -103896.722095331 | 83309.7622025718 |
| 91 | -15489.018836032 | -126198.196712498 | 95220.1590404335 |
| 92 | -20684.5577256845 | -149791.367747329 | 108422.252295960 |
| 93 | -25880.0966153371 | -174555.698614305 | 122795.505383631 |
| 94 | -31075.6355049896 | -200400.322065361 | 138249.051055381 |
| 95 | -36271.1743946422 | -227254.266961278 | 154711.918171993 |
| 96 | -41466.7132842947 | -255060.345768303 | 172126.919199714 |
