| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.727358642373541 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 96.5 | 98.4 | -1.90000000000001 |
| 3 | 97.4 | 97.0180185794903 | 0.381981420509732 |
| 4 | 99.2 | 97.2958560669241 | 1.90414393307586 |
| 5 | 100.8 | 98.68085161297 | 2.11914838702998 |
| 6 | 101.8 | 100.222232506748 | 1.57776749325177 |
| 7 | 102.7 | 101.369835328621 | 1.33016467137907 |
| 8 | 100 | 102.337342098128 | -2.33734209812846 |
| 9 | 100.8 | 100.637256122871 | 0.162743877128776 |
| 10 | 101.7 | 100.755629288394 | 0.944370711605785 |
| 11 | 99 | 101.442525487085 | -2.44252548708513 |
| 12 | 101.7 | 99.6659334648361 | 2.03406653516389 |
| 13 | 100.2 | 101.145429338350 | -0.945429338350365 |
| 14 | 101.2 | 100.457763138348 | 0.742236861652273 |
| 15 | 99.5 | 100.997635534359 | -1.49763553435872 |
| 16 | 100.8 | 99.9083173853172 | 0.891682614682807 |
| 17 | 100.7 | 100.556890441361 | 0.143109558639040 |
| 18 | 99.5 | 100.660982415643 | -1.16098241564333 |
| 19 | 99.4 | 99.8165318219814 | -0.416531821981437 |
| 20 | 101.1 | 99.5135638014396 | 1.58643619856035 |
| 21 | 97.2 | 100.667471881037 | -3.46747188103674 |
| 22 | 98.1 | 98.1453762411774 | -0.0453762411774363 |
| 23 | 97.8 | 98.1123714399986 | -0.3123714399986 |
| 24 | 95.5 | 97.885165373485 | -2.38516537348495 |
| 25 | 96.3 | 96.1502947255906 | 0.149705274409442 |
| 26 | 93.6 | 96.2591841507412 | -2.65918415074117 |
| 27 | 96.7 | 94.3250035770368 | 2.37499642296318 |
| 28 | 95.1 | 96.0524777508853 | -0.95247775088535 |
| 29 | 97.7 | 95.3596848271104 | 2.34031517288963 |
| 30 | 96.5 | 97.0619332939896 | -0.561933293989568 |
| 31 | 98.1 | 96.6532062561688 | 1.44679374383117 |
| 32 | 97.3 | 97.7055441894764 | -0.405544189476402 |
| 33 | 97 | 97.4105681183964 | -0.41056811839637 |
| 34 | 93.7 | 97.1119378491977 | -3.41193784919773 |
| 35 | 95.6 | 94.6302353673424 | 0.969764632657629 |
| 36 | 94.6 | 95.3356020539741 | -0.735602053974105 |
| 37 | 95.1 | 94.8005555426683 | 0.299444457331688 |
| 38 | 94.5 | 95.0183590566194 | -0.51835905661936 |
| 39 | 93.6 | 94.6413261169347 | -1.04132611693468 |
| 40 | 92.1 | 93.883908566253 | -1.78390856625296 |
| 41 | 95.9 | 92.5863672533847 | 3.31363274661534 |
| 42 | 98.1 | 94.9965666692873 | 3.10343333071269 |
| 43 | 98.2 | 97.2538757234113 | 0.94612427658872 |
| 44 | 96.2 | 97.9420473927475 | -1.74204739274749 |
| 45 | 94.1 | 96.6749541662083 | -2.57495416620831 |
| 46 | 95 | 94.802038999701 | 0.197961000299060 |
| 47 | 93.4 | 94.9460276441214 | -1.54602764412137 |
| 48 | 95.4 | 93.8215110758213 | 1.57848892417871 |
| 49 | 93.5 | 94.9696386367136 | -1.46963863671360 |
| 50 | 94.5 | 93.9006842731339 | 0.599315726866109 |
| 51 | 94.3 | 94.3366017465803 | -0.0366017465803452 |
| 52 | 95.7 | 94.3099791498792 | 1.39002085012083 |
| 53 | 98.4 | 95.321022828294 | 3.07897717170603 |
| 54 | 99.4 | 97.5605434838052 | 1.8394565161948 |
| 55 | 99.2 | 98.8984880781298 | 0.301511921870187 |
| 56 | 99 | 99.1177953802808 | -0.117795380280754 |
| 57 | 99.4 | 99.0321158924019 | 0.367884107598130 |
| 58 | 99.3 | 99.2996995774553 | 0.000300422544739831 |
| 59 | 98.6 | 99.2999180923895 | -0.699918092389538 |
| 60 | 98.7 | 98.7908266189364 | -0.09082661893639 |
| 61 | 96 | 98.7247630926954 | -2.72476309269544 |
| 62 | 98.7 | 96.742883108803 | 1.95711689119705 |
| 63 | 100.1 | 98.1664089937504 | 1.93359100624963 |
| 64 | 100 | 99.5728231229618 | 0.427176877038221 |
| 65 | 101.5 | 99.8835339162977 | 1.61646608370233 |
| 66 | 101.5 | 101.059284492382 | 0.440715507617725 |
| 67 | 103.8 | 101.379842725676 | 2.42015727432393 |
| 68 | 104.1 | 103.140165035059 | 0.959834964941223 |
| 69 | 101 | 103.838309292061 | -2.83830929206107 |
| 70 | 104.9 | 101.773840498751 | 3.12615950124868 |
| 71 | 104.4 | 104.047679629423 | 0.352320370577289 |
| 72 | 105.6 | 104.303942895846 | 1.29605710415363 |
| 73 | 103.4 | 105.246641231562 | -1.84664123156213 |
| 74 | 101.7 | 103.903470772422 | -2.20347077242209 |
| 75 | 103.5 | 102.300757262883 | 1.19924273711662 |
| 76 | 101.2 | 103.173036832029 | -1.97303683202885 |
| 77 | 105.4 | 101.737931440531 | 3.66206855946865 |
| 78 | 105.4 | 104.401568656225 | 0.998431343774698 |
| 79 | 108.6 | 105.127786322936 | 3.47221367706354 |
| 80 | 110.6 | 107.653330949116 | 2.94666905088376 |
| 81 | 110.2 | 109.796616149491 | 0.403383850508817 |
| 82 | 106.2 | 110.090020879353 | -3.89002087935269 |
| 83 | 108.6 | 107.260580573742 | 1.33941942625800 |
| 84 | 107.5 | 108.234818869194 | -0.73481886919376 |
| 85 | 106.9 | 107.700342014107 | -0.800342014106519 |
| 86 | 108.4 | 107.118206333291 | 1.28179366670851 |
| 87 | 109.9 | 108.050530034512 | 1.84946996548841 |
| 88 | 108.6 | 109.395757997720 | -0.795757997719889 |
| 89 | 106.5 | 108.816956540840 | -2.31695654084045 |
| 90 | 105.7 | 107.131698176856 | -1.43169817685624 |
| 91 | 105.6 | 106.090340134649 | -0.490340134649415 |
| 92 | 104.2 | 105.733687000010 | -1.53368700000955 |
| 93 | 105.1 | 104.618146505857 | 0.481853494143337 |
| 94 | 102.7 | 104.968626809180 | -2.26862680917969 |
| 95 | 108.3 | 103.318521493203 | 4.98147850679746 |
| 96 | 104.2 | 106.941842936920 | -2.74184293691971 |
| 97 | 105.4 | 104.947539780720 | 0.452460219279700 |
| 98 | 104.6 | 105.276640631544 | -0.676640631543634 |
| 99 | 106.4 | 104.784480220409 | 1.61551977959073 |
| 100 | 111 | 105.95954249402 | 5.04045750598 |
| 101 | 111.7 | 109.625762822511 | 2.07423717748887 |
| 102 | 113.8 | 111.134477159890 | 2.66552284010983 |
| 103 | 115.9 | 113.073268234088 | 2.82673176591189 |
| 104 | 117.3 | 115.129316013696 | 2.17068398630404 |
| 105 | 113.6 | 116.708181770996 | -3.10818177099605 |
| 106 | 113.6 | 114.447418897794 | -0.84741889779417 |
| 107 | 114.6 | 113.831041438773 | 0.76895856122708 |
| 108 | 113.2 | 114.390350093909 | -1.19035009390855 |
| 109 | 112.8 | 113.524538665654 | -0.724538665654009 |
| 110 | 109.6 | 112.997539205457 | -3.39753920545678 |
| 111 | 111.1 | 110.526309701565 | 0.573690298435139 |
| 112 | 109.7 | 110.943588298178 | -1.24358829817751 |
| 113 | 113 | 110.039053601943 | 2.96094639805651 |
| 114 | 111 | 112.192723554175 | -1.19272355417471 |
| 115 | 113.3 | 111.325185769083 | 1.97481423091675 |
| 116 | 111.8 | 112.761583967023 | -0.961583967022804 |
| 117 | 107.2 | 112.062167558241 | -4.86216755824093 |
| 118 | 106.4 | 108.525627964086 | -2.12562796408612 |
| 119 | 110 | 106.979534093937 | 3.02046590606280 |
| 120 | 108.2 | 109.176496074707 | -0.976496074706603 |
| 121 | 108.2 | 108.466233215525 | -0.266233215524920 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 122 | 108.272586185326 | 104.467761022791 | 112.077411347861 |
| 123 | 108.272586185326 | 103.567737796666 | 112.977434573986 |
| 124 | 108.272586185326 | 102.814152142206 | 113.731020228446 |
| 125 | 108.272586185326 | 102.152667391264 | 114.392504979388 |
| 126 | 108.272586185326 | 101.556016384547 | 114.989155986105 |
| 127 | 108.272586185326 | 101.008206395450 | 115.536965975201 |
| 128 | 108.272586185326 | 100.498905102700 | 116.046267267951 |
| 129 | 108.272586185326 | 100.02097898326 | 116.524193387392 |
| 130 | 108.272586185326 | 99.5692577840759 | 116.975914586576 |
| 131 | 108.272586185326 | 99.139852251677 | 117.405320118975 |
| 132 | 108.272586185326 | 98.7297494505996 | 117.815422920052 |
| 133 | 108.272586185326 | 98.3365589717732 | 118.208613398879 |
