| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[48]) |
| 36 | 936574 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 37 | 708917 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 38 | 885295 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 39 | 1099663 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 40 | 1576220 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 41 | 1487870 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 42 | 1488635 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 43 | 2882530 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 44 | 2677026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 45 | 1404398 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 46 | 1344370 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 47 | 936865 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | 672303.6394 | 570335.815 | 774271.4637 | 0.198 | 1e-04 | 0.2408 | 1e-04 |
| 50 | 953712 | 917977.7379 | 815945.8198 | 1020009.6559 | 0.2462 | 1 | 0.7349 | 0.8078 |
| 51 | 1160384 | 1098419.0754 | 996387.0768 | 1200451.074 | 0.117 | 0.9973 | 0.4905 | 1 |
| 52 | 1400618 | 1544042.9932 | 1442010.9945 | 1646074.9919 | 0.0029 | 1 | 0.2683 | 1 |
| 53 | 1661511 | 1675278.8425 | 1573246.8438 | 1777310.8412 | 0.3957 | 1 | 0.9998 | 1 |
| 54 | 1495347 | 1475527.2565 | 1373495.2578 | 1577559.2552 | 0.3517 | 2e-04 | 0.4006 | 1 |
| 55 | 2918786 | 3209917.7349 | 3107885.7362 | 3311949.7336 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 56 | 2775677 | 2453706.0585 | 2351674.0597 | 2555738.0572 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 57 | 1407026 | 1314564.5052 | 1212532.5065 | 1416596.5039 | 0.0379 | 0 | 0.0422 | 1 |
| 58 | 1370199 | 1350152.9574 | 1248120.9587 | 1452184.9561 | 0.3501 | 0.1373 | 0.5442 | 1 |
| 59 | 964526 | 919127.3651 | 817095.3664 | 1021159.3638 | 0.1916 | 0 | 0.3667 | 0.8137 |
| 60 | 850851 | 775911.1228 | 673879.124 | 877943.1215 | 0.075 | 1e-04 | 0.0315 | 0.0315 |
| 61 | 683118 | 647010.7427 | 539790.7465 | 754230.739 | 0.2546 | 1e-04 | 0.6349 | 0 |
| 62 | 847224 | 859363.545 | 752137.1827 | 966589.9073 | 0.4122 | 0.9994 | 0.0423 | 0.4037 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1140086.8127 | 1032860.4424 | 1247313.183 | 0.1109 | 1 | 0.3553 | 1 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1632024.767 | 1524798.3966 | 1739251.1373 | 0.0157 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1529389.6791 | 1422163.3087 | 1636616.0494 | 0.3195 | 0.6085 | 0.0079 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1626629.6818 | 1519403.3115 | 1733856.0522 | 0.0149 | 0.9877 | 0.9918 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 3022816.8662 | 2915590.4958 | 3130043.2365 | 0.002 | 1 | 0.9714 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2627209.1101 | 2519982.7397 | 2734435.4804 | 0.0016 | 0 | 0.0033 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1422657.7434 | 1315431.3731 | 1529884.1137 | 0.2851 | 0 | 0.6125 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1403436.9783 | 1296210.608 | 1510663.3487 | 0.2491 | 0.5857 | 0.7283 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 1002564.5038 | 895338.1335 | 1109790.8741 | 0.1518 | 0 | 0.7566 | 0.9912 |
| 72 | 859626 | 896785.8221 | 789559.4518 | 1004012.1925 | 0.2485 | 0.1827 | 0.7994 | 0.6701 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 49 | 0.0774 | -0.0657 | 0 | 1949455563.8936 | 0 | 0 |
| 50 | 0.0567 | 0.0389 | 0.0523 | 1276937491.3811 | 1613196527.6374 | 40164.6179 |
| 51 | 0.0474 | 0.0564 | 0.0537 | 3839651883.3418 | 2355348312.8722 | 48531.9309 |
| 52 | 0.0337 | -0.0929 | 0.0635 | 20570728669.2236 | 6909193401.96 | 83121.558 |
| 53 | 0.0311 | -0.0082 | 0.0524 | 189553486.4151 | 5565265418.851 | 74600.7066 |
| 54 | 0.0353 | 0.0134 | 0.0459 | 392822232.6343 | 4703191554.4816 | 68579.8189 |
| 55 | 0.0162 | -0.0907 | 0.0523 | 84757687073.8616 | 16139548057.2502 | 127041.521 |
| 56 | 0.0212 | 0.1312 | 0.0622 | 103665287202.213 | 27080265450.3706 | 164560.826 |
| 57 | 0.0396 | 0.0703 | 0.0631 | 8549128017.8765 | 25021250180.0934 | 158181.0677 |
| 58 | 0.0386 | 0.0148 | 0.0583 | 401843824.147 | 22559309544.4988 | 150197.5684 |
| 59 | 0.0566 | 0.0494 | 0.0575 | 2061036048.7613 | 20695830135.7954 | 143860.4537 |
| 60 | 0.0671 | 0.0966 | 0.0607 | 5615985200.071 | 19439176391.1517 | 139424.4469 |
| 61 | 0.0845 | 0.0558 | 0.0603 | 1303734026.6946 | 18044142363.1165 | 134328.4868 |
| 62 | 0.0637 | -0.0141 | 0.057 | 147368552.1632 | 16765801376.6199 | 129482.8227 |
| 63 | 0.048 | -0.0586 | 0.0571 | 4466357527.0613 | 15945838453.316 | 126276.8326 |
| 64 | 0.0335 | -0.0721 | 0.0581 | 13852999747.5633 | 15815036034.2064 | 125757.8468 |
| 65 | 0.0358 | -0.0168 | 0.0557 | 658213869.2316 | 14923458259.7961 | 122161.6071 |
| 66 | 0.0336 | -0.0731 | 0.0566 | 14141415050.5635 | 14880011414.8388 | 121983.6522 |
| 67 | 0.0181 | -0.052 | 0.0564 | 24686338100.9711 | 15396133872.0036 | 124081.1584 |
| 68 | 0.0208 | 0.0613 | 0.0566 | 25894889136.5966 | 15921071635.2333 | 126178.7289 |
| 69 | 0.0385 | -0.0218 | 0.055 | 964831903.7262 | 15208869743.2567 | 123324.2464 |
| 70 | 0.039 | -0.0264 | 0.0537 | 1373367875.812 | 14579983294.7365 | 120747.6016 |
| 71 | 0.0546 | -0.0561 | 0.0538 | 3166257057.2344 | 14083734327.8886 | 118674.9103 |
| 72 | 0.061 | -0.0414 | 0.0533 | 1380852381.2439 | 13554447580.1117 | 116423.5697 |
