Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 101.76 | 101.76 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 102.37 | 102.317472718342 | 0.0347185971257529 | 0.0525272816582338 | 1.21653408394008 |
3 | 102.38 | 102.363096703179 | 0.0353709973016911 | 0.0169032968206521 | 0.0374807288615759 |
4 | 102.86 | 102.766012138015 | 0.0618267673722994 | 0.093987861984837 | 1.26006628543763 |
5 | 102.87 | 102.856525994415 | 0.0643938166690492 | 0.0134740055851707 | 0.0970614551395525 |
6 | 102.92 | 102.895144192622 | 0.0617022027953932 | 0.0248558073779502 | -0.0863355542135141 |
7 | 102.95 | 102.923266405444 | 0.0578077936652806 | 0.0267335945557088 | -0.111558917578599 |
8 | 103.02 | 102.98636077963 | 0.0584674245139674 | 0.0336392203703432 | 0.017449553371332 |
9 | 104.08 | 103.90638400872 | 0.171686564439623 | 0.173615991279555 | 2.82958576258916 |
10 | 104.16 | 104.162351654142 | 0.183178957970156 | -0.00235165414204881 | 0.275755218128024 |
11 | 104.24 | 104.231111063131 | 0.167159739228873 | 0.00888893686904191 | -0.373300151584694 |
12 | 104.33 | 104.306402225416 | 0.154052684611207 | 0.0235977745844905 | -0.299090948647967 |
13 | 104.73 | 104.860469594302 | 0.207117411890546 | -0.130469594302274 | 1.47412309781891 |
14 | 104.86 | 104.856636596468 | 0.176237437183658 | 0.00336340353179794 | -0.61391938697607 |
15 | 105.03 | 105.069025950853 | 0.181514555098871 | -0.0390259508527905 | 0.114470266103365 |
16 | 105.62 | 105.494732795342 | 0.217288646307836 | 0.125267204657531 | 0.786668310554586 |
17 | 105.63 | 105.657563137021 | 0.209287094648009 | -0.0275631370206787 | -0.174805076269677 |
18 | 105.63 | 105.652031424569 | 0.17763982941347 | -0.0220314245687912 | -0.689462488532367 |
19 | 105.94 | 105.881191492709 | 0.185245872012312 | 0.0588085072913497 | 0.165392890227162 |
20 | 106.61 | 106.598075402621 | 0.263849096227719 | 0.0119245973789498 | 1.70670020285572 |
21 | 107.69 | 107.450004125231 | 0.350889138940555 | 0.23999587476921 | 1.88783100840636 |
22 | 107.78 | 107.820014813184 | 0.353721699690585 | -0.0400148131839514 | 0.0613901764090433 |
23 | 107.93 | 107.97153810996 | 0.323756401892095 | -0.0415381099602706 | -0.649034296102 |
24 | 108.48 | 108.474179945054 | 0.350196044238844 | 0.00582005494615399 | 0.573277064926967 |
25 | 108.14 | 108.36983568475 | 0.283469851836746 | -0.229835684750324 | -1.52703398147439 |
26 | 108.48 | 108.502559420456 | 0.261203837856906 | -0.0225594204562057 | -0.466573400302342 |
27 | 108.48 | 108.595840947402 | 0.2365189597646 | -0.115840947401956 | -0.528806541071097 |
28 | 108.89 | 108.754077483945 | 0.224963005931033 | 0.135922516054989 | -0.250963502594185 |
29 | 108.93 | 108.906008556163 | 0.214161926608119 | 0.023991443836591 | -0.233533413380494 |
30 | 109.21 | 109.195067450371 | 0.225238948215228 | 0.0149325496287804 | 0.239287207581077 |
31 | 109.47 | 109.491641959238 | 0.235788138049671 | -0.02164195923787 | 0.228009899219974 |
32 | 109.8 | 109.87249692127 | 0.257240968772351 | -0.0724969212698966 | 0.463856853136858 |
33 | 111.73 | 111.227936559647 | 0.419656202253994 | 0.50206344035269 | 3.51250250747222 |
34 | 111.85 | 111.867074625992 | 0.452117757985171 | -0.0170746259920647 | 0.702089726930494 |
35 | 112.12 | 112.249011290207 | 0.441743034536639 | -0.129011290206952 | -0.224285673307821 |
36 | 112.15 | 112.188971200621 | 0.367730337746188 | -0.0389712006213954 | -1.60540473445718 |
37 | 112.17 | 112.390198530512 | 0.343180227978755 | -0.22019853051239 | -0.544259583429246 |
38 | 112.67 | 112.663055464534 | 0.33280179995353 | 0.00694453546573659 | -0.221512032443065 |
39 | 112.8 | 112.908784344847 | 0.320004833533807 | -0.108784344847394 | -0.274447825358123 |
40 | 113.44 | 113.263023114046 | 0.325047947686811 | 0.176976885954167 | 0.109440013056598 |
41 | 113.53 | 113.519325206873 | 0.314899108820857 | 0.010674793126677 | -0.219640800811456 |
42 | 114.53 | 114.362028613653 | 0.39283913660256 | 0.167971386347278 | 1.68370953206525 |
43 | 114.51 | 114.617911585248 | 0.372618191763011 | -0.107911585248089 | -0.436936613034195 |
44 | 115.05 | 115.284914564748 | 0.416080409316406 | -0.234914564747862 | 0.939601821048872 |
45 | 116.67 | 116.131466885196 | 0.479636530689533 | 0.538533114803861 | 1.37440659450527 |
46 | 117.07 | 117.000315957138 | 0.537097267294933 | 0.0696840428617493 | 1.24250556479722 |
47 | 116.92 | 117.08559372415 | 0.470440601665885 | -0.165593724150122 | -1.44086873152366 |
48 | 117 | 117.108378747357 | 0.404494399090913 | -0.108378747357085 | -1.43164644904341 |
49 | 117.02 | 117.270661657809 | 0.368784058769506 | -0.250661657809041 | -0.782605866684855 |
50 | 117.35 | 117.372915778327 | 0.329478226036952 | -0.022915778327269 | -0.844391729488189 |
51 | 117.36 | 117.497660005016 | 0.299379264506053 | -0.137660005016105 | -0.646510140041732 |
52 | 117.82 | 117.649255399568 | 0.277631536147089 | 0.170744600431516 | -0.471422125078926 |
53 | 117.88 | 117.950340427491 | 0.281089309001206 | -0.0703404274913736 | 0.0748875130991198 |
54 | 118.24 | 118.070387404351 | 0.257335350069455 | 0.169612595649055 | -0.513390879686081 |
55 | 118.5 | 118.596688309704 | 0.297004046873483 | -0.0966883097041517 | 0.857194639883577 |
56 | 118.8 | 119.10287751444 | 0.327853732568275 | -0.302877514440261 | 0.666895154373479 |
57 | 119.76 | 119.348102585206 | 0.315668020619073 | 0.411897414793714 | -0.263489131274974 |
58 | 120.09 | 119.873375327828 | 0.346574409910598 | 0.216624672172457 | 0.668167654188408 |