Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
timeY[t]F[t]95% LB95% UBp-value
(H0: Y[t] = F[t])
P(F[t]>Y[t-1])P(F[t]>Y[t-s])P(F[t]>Y[48])
3657-------
3765-------
3868-------
3973-------
4071-------
4171-------
4270-------
4369-------
4465-------
4557-------
4657-------
4757-------
4855-------
496557.080443.502970.65790.12650.6180.12650.618
506555.941135.686376.19580.19030.19030.12160.5363
516456.130331.195381.06540.26810.24280.09240.5354
526055.989425.219186.75970.39920.30490.16950.5251
534355.105520.747789.46330.24490.390.18230.5024
544755.091116.408793.77340.34090.72990.2250.5018
554055.157613.215797.09960.23940.64850.25890.5029
563154.59419.29599.89320.15370.73610.32630.493
572753.97325.6649102.28150.13690.82440.45110.4834
582453.83362.6937104.97350.12640.84810.45170.4822
592352.8333-1.0465106.7130.13890.85290.43980.4686
601751.6786-4.7409108.0980.11420.84040.45410.4541


Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time% S.E.PEMAPESq.EMSERMSE
490.12140.1387062.720200
500.18470.16190.150382.064372.39228.5084
510.22670.14020.14761.931468.90538.3009
520.28040.07160.128116.085155.70027.4633
530.3181-0.21970.1464146.542373.86868.5947
540.3582-0.14690.146565.465472.46818.5128
550.388-0.27480.1648229.753794.93759.7436
560.4233-0.43220.1983556.6804152.655312.3554
570.4567-0.49980.2318727.5558216.533214.7151
580.4847-0.55420.264890.046283.884516.8489
590.5203-0.56470.2913890.0242338.988118.4116
600.557-0.6710.3231202.6025410.955920.272