Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[97])
85	4443.91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	4502.64	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	4356.98	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	4591.27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	4696.96	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	4621.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	4562.84	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
92	4202.52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
93	4296.49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
94	4435.23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
95	4105.18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
96	4116.68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
97	3844.49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
98	3720.98	3778.4384	3548.0024	4008.8743	0.3125	0.2871	0	0.2871
99	3674.4	3778.4384	3413.9277	4142.949	0.2879	0.6213	9e-04	0.3612
100	3857.62	3778.4384	3317.3144	4239.5623	0.3682	0.6708	3e-04	0.3895
101	3801.06	3778.4384	3237.6958	4319.181	0.4673	0.3871	4e-04	0.4054
102	3504.37	3778.4384	3168.3811	4388.4956	0.1893	0.471	0.0034	0.416
103	3032.6	3778.4384	3106.1757	4450.7011	0.0148	0.7879	0.0111	0.4236
104	3047.03	3778.4384	3049.2577	4507.619	0.0246	0.9775	0.1272	0.4295
105	2962.34	3778.4384	2996.4718	4560.4049	0.0204	0.9666	0.0971	0.4343
106	2197.82	3778.4384	2947.0305	4609.8462	1e-04	0.9728	0.0608	0.4381
107	2014.45	3778.4384	2900.3688	4656.508	0	0.9998	0.2329	0.4414
108	1862.83	3778.4384	2856.0645	4700.8122	0	0.9999	0.2361	0.4442
109	1905.41	3778.4384	2813.7929	4743.0838	1e-04	1	0.4466	0.4466

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
98	0.0311	-0.0152	0	3301.4644	0	0
99	0.0492	-0.0275	0.0214	10823.9827	7062.7235	84.04
100	0.0623	0.021	0.0212	6269.7304	6798.3925	82.4524
101	0.073	0.006	0.0174	511.7381	5226.7289	72.2961
102	0.0824	-0.0725	0.0284	75113.472	19204.0775	138.5788
103	0.0908	-0.1974	0.0566	556274.8758	108715.8772	329.7209
104	0.0985	-0.1936	0.0762	534958.2053	169607.6384	411.8345
105	0.1056	-0.216	0.0936	666016.5513	231658.7525	481.3094
106	0.1123	-0.4183	0.1297	2498354.4351	483513.8284	695.3516
107	0.1186	-0.4669	0.1634	3111654.9734	746327.9429	863.9027
108	0.1245	-0.507	0.1947	3669555.4315	1012075.8964	1006.0198
109	0.1303	-0.4957	0.2198	3508235.279	1220089.1783	1104.5765