| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 286602 | 286602 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 283042 | 283653.514678328 | -194.918781431049 | -611.514678327863 | -0.513504172651212 |
| 3 | 276687 | 278738.112107994 | -633.581801757586 | -2051.11210799353 | -1.10580595409501 |
| 4 | 277915 | 277701.909912795 | -680.252271222706 | 213.090087204625 | -0.0997065198244274 |
| 5 | 277128 | 277271.530240242 | -645.890768061875 | -143.530240241980 | 0.0602327365463566 |
| 6 | 277103 | 277213.666234932 | -554.779819817128 | -110.666234931874 | 0.139143721593626 |
| 7 | 275037 | 275809.967354789 | -696.861674374174 | -772.967354788608 | -0.198553808025926 |
| 8 | 270150 | 271748.631096895 | -1287.72185557428 | -1598.63109689547 | -0.78068783645142 |
| 9 | 267140 | 267979.819544199 | -1736.67874160150 | -839.819544198809 | -0.572582134226973 |
| 10 | 264993 | 265323.003050931 | -1906.33467108155 | -330.003050931516 | -0.211571373760679 |
| 11 | 287259 | 280417.130913402 | 1265.66684309408 | 6841.86908659751 | 3.89954991137942 |
| 12 | 291186 | 290454.505591438 | 2914.69562417399 | 731.494408562216 | 2.0088718445796 |
| 13 | 292300 | 291827.602669314 | 2635.81462614077 | 472.397330685744 | -0.381768914671608 |
| 14 | 288186 | 289105.306168242 | 1630.43337354587 | -919.30616824152 | -1.17241415668180 |
| 15 | 281477 | 285177.447902346 | 601.232352478222 | -3700.44790234588 | -1.19525698085119 |
| 16 | 282656 | 283202.099905819 | 121.719278756493 | -546.099905818812 | -0.580525201913526 |
| 17 | 280190 | 281322.896910550 | -253.224981554856 | -1132.89691054965 | -0.451681847842913 |
| 18 | 280408 | 280363.258527809 | -385.766407594984 | 44.7414721908378 | -0.158669731712760 |
| 19 | 276836 | 277419.915821799 | -865.538410338143 | -583.915821798573 | -0.574248363255685 |
| 20 | 275216 | 275491.15769903 | -1065.00033327702 | -275.157699030219 | -0.238969163696083 |
| 21 | 274352 | 274611.958751139 | -1030.13291846558 | -259.958751139443 | 0.0417967307084539 |
| 22 | 271311 | 276026.198911086 | -571.326758062151 | -4715.19891108608 | 0.55005764334406 |
| 23 | 289802 | 282777.257880196 | 802.026312437257 | 7024.74211980361 | 1.64583404226181 |
| 24 | 290726 | 288224.915851438 | 1670.53224517741 | 2501.08414856235 | 1.04459985922816 |
| 25 | 292300 | 289964.117576245 | 1683.34735444758 | 2335.88242375478 | 0.015828751956963 |
| 26 | 278506 | 281998.089648172 | -124.045506568646 | -3492.08964817203 | -2.15946615518098 |
| 27 | 269826 | 274827.818024539 | -1432.84780051521 | -5001.81802453924 | -1.54256078982195 |
| 28 | 265861 | 267747.948348433 | -2481.0253160722 | -1886.94834843271 | -1.25987164650344 |
| 29 | 269034 | 267801.884705637 | -2008.2796636789 | 1232.11529436317 | 0.569696858211719 |
| 30 | 264176 | 264104.828719529 | -2323.88077131080 | 71.1712804712921 | -0.37826232203378 |
| 31 | 255198 | 257203.49419422 | -3179.21790478733 | -2005.49419421973 | -1.02322729611630 |
| 32 | 253353 | 253381.570478368 | -3299.2713841071 | -28.5704783683416 | -0.143704090850896 |
| 33 | 246057 | 248384.476653014 | -3616.38993146270 | -2327.47665301379 | -0.379863530546178 |
| 34 | 235372 | 243648.865106564 | -3825.38359246229 | -8276.86510656376 | -0.250373649485884 |
| 35 | 258556 | 248979.766908410 | -2117.6031672791 | 9576.23309159042 | 2.04668896015447 |
| 36 | 260993 | 255068.423107095 | -589.408546914742 | 5924.57689290524 | 1.84078304131215 |
| 37 | 254663 | 251037.498183637 | -1231.03726836792 | 3625.5018163629 | -0.778868184343224 |
| 38 | 250643 | 250527.036653019 | -1096.54167628592 | 115.963346980907 | 0.161087811175728 |
| 39 | 243422 | 247730.699337801 | -1412.43090814126 | -4308.69933780114 | -0.375139009225978 |
| 40 | 247105 | 248642.866147849 | -981.209418361088 | -1537.86614784900 | 0.516878030877219 |
| 41 | 248541 | 247027.331471033 | -1099.16017245965 | 1513.66852896716 | -0.142032433025296 |
| 42 | 245039 | 244050.07569262 | -1449.09026577852 | 988.924307379717 | -0.420166870291771 |
| 43 | 237080 | 239692.625931415 | -1991.14701737445 | -2612.6259314146 | -0.64916543320341 |
| 44 | 237085 | 236430.49346715 | -2227.95474970988 | 654.506532849932 | -0.283464343975813 |
| 45 | 225554 | 229940.029080625 | -3021.8753196366 | -4386.02908062471 | -0.950570012871678 |
| 46 | 226839 | 234615.251741445 | -1589.01479578791 | -7776.25174144547 | 1.71599627009908 |
| 47 | 247934 | 238931.841920532 | -490.690561779295 | 9002.15807946826 | 1.31711125399326 |
| 48 | 248333 | 240720.334200147 | -66.9903134920694 | 7612.66579985306 | 0.510186904837453 |
| 49 | 246969 | 242754.735810031 | 324.151354397860 | 4214.26418996939 | 0.472008393862723 |
| 50 | 245098 | 244328.766295623 | 556.904166872985 | 769.233704377497 | 0.278817456230623 |
| 51 | 246263 | 249469.093653788 | 1408.2801782797 | -3206.09365378785 | 1.01476386798951 |
| 52 | 255765 | 255350.099938604 | 2237.72036605097 | 414.900061396093 | 0.993370973336029 |
| 53 | 264319 | 260783.557578870 | 2831.00444204526 | 3535.44242113031 | 0.713581227538113 |
| 54 | 268347 | 265445.582349429 | 3171.47295153149 | 2901.41765057069 | 0.409102347320942 |
| 55 | 273046 | 272785.381465806 | 3946.95829275335 | 260.618534193956 | 0.929579390203477 |
| 56 | 273963 | 273978.819154089 | 3434.81370984221 | -15.8191540891989 | -0.613160401588959 |
| 57 | 267430 | 275520.919933663 | 3082.95113374645 | -8090.91993366284 | -0.421175038917083 |
| 58 | 271993 | 280665.544586771 | 3465.97178352948 | -8672.54458677142 | 0.458685689751345 |
| 59 | 292710 | 284488.032369835 | 3532.16319488117 | 8221.96763016541 | 0.0794080017422295 |
| 60 | 295881 | 288639.682049450 | 3647.18967279553 | 7241.31795054964 | 0.138399093199395 |
| 61 | 294563 | 291496.436359777 | 3500.26912641378 | 3066.56364022347 | -0.176832484645321 |
