| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[62]) |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 62 | 847224 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1159099.6015 | 980509.4487 | 1337689.7543 | 0.1731 | 0.9997 | 0.4944 | 0.9997 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1523596.5225 | 1338377.2599 | 1708815.785 | 0.4609 | 1 | 0.9034 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1557650.1501 | 1371939.2432 | 1743361.0571 | 0.2847 | 0.6763 | 0.1365 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1554326.6038 | 1368578.5735 | 1740074.6341 | 0.3114 | 0.7033 | 0.7331 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2913999.6951 | 2728248.8581 | 3099750.5322 | 0.3051 | 1 | 0.4799 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2730719.7337 | 2544968.6844 | 2916470.7831 | 0.2723 | 0.0772 | 0.3176 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1426520.2133 | 1240769.1479 | 1612271.2786 | 0.3562 | 0 | 0.5815 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1381180.2183 | 1195429.1517 | 1566931.2849 | 0.4379 | 0.4562 | 0.5461 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 980796.3149 | 795045.2482 | 1166547.3816 | 0.3579 | 0 | 0.5682 | 0.9206 |
| 72 | 859626 | 887521.8229 | 701770.7563 | 1073272.8896 | 0.3842 | 0.2676 | 0.6506 | 0.6647 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 63 | 0.0786 | -0.0741 | 0 | 7369123922.0705 | 0 | 0 |
| 64 | 0.062 | -0.0061 | 0.0401 | 85942586.5732 | 3727533254.3219 | 61053.5278 |
| 65 | 0.0608 | -0.0346 | 0.0383 | 2906951246.1993 | 3454005918.281 | 58770.7914 |
| 66 | 0.061 | -0.03 | 0.0362 | 2172921288.0203 | 3133734760.7158 | 55979.771 |
| 67 | 0.0325 | -0.0166 | 0.0323 | 2333053753.3049 | 2973598559.2337 | 54530.7121 |
| 68 | 0.0347 | 0.021 | 0.0304 | 3295709035.0936 | 3027283638.5436 | 55020.7564 |
| 69 | 0.0664 | -0.0245 | 0.0295 | 1219700672.5859 | 2769057500.5497 | 52621.8348 |
| 70 | 0.0686 | -0.0107 | 0.0272 | 219105665.7734 | 2450313521.2026 | 49500.6416 |
| 71 | 0.0966 | -0.0352 | 0.0281 | 1190340728.9912 | 2310316544.2903 | 48065.7523 |
| 72 | 0.1068 | -0.0314 | 0.0284 | 778176937.7448 | 2157102583.6357 | 46444.6185 |
