| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 1856 | 1856 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1834 | 1849.00677901170 | -0.866277322744983 | -2.24329946878328 | -0.0855713141816245 |
| 3 | 2095 | 1932.98272858665 | 7.91315360135593 | 30.3037666386156 | 0.920773758514936 |
| 4 | 2164 | 2016.69035440675 | 14.2041073419567 | 25.1014935750664 | 0.845636642814966 |
| 5 | 2368 | 2140.49933996714 | 21.8000068151347 | 43.1513017068241 | 1.26244008784519 |
| 6 | 2072 | 2130.15911963160 | 19.8672794969790 | -2.25688091100772 | -0.379845280563682 |
| 7 | 2521 | 2261.33349198797 | 25.862680969871 | 61.1900955148915 | 1.34105053873475 |
| 8 | 1823 | 2136.32041325568 | 18.3974008317198 | -39.423965567844 | -1.84325536953674 |
| 9 | 1947 | 2077.51422861899 | 14.8195400449968 | 11.4327606166553 | -0.952552636611803 |
| 10 | 2226 | 2126.38696308157 | 16.3193068923908 | 36.4383955337287 | 0.423076534649782 |
| 11 | 1754 | 2017.51072329800 | 11.0227401364538 | -29.7753476532942 | -1.56298930805744 |
| 12 | 1786 | 1944.16936521168 | 7.56725541500755 | 0.0449619722944906 | -1.05681731523340 |
| 13 | 2072 | 1990.99009091908 | 4.20691014016583 | -16.1671047233639 | 0.710048144374171 |
| 14 | 1846 | 1954.18839816044 | 2.45128100765119 | -44.1090784671614 | -0.45299504641554 |
| 15 | 2137 | 2009.06208467391 | 4.91904676918733 | 46.4979070242693 | 0.582329714445175 |
| 16 | 2466 | 2159.92599352002 | 11.1448985085202 | 64.5337828188391 | 1.70811593476162 |
| 17 | 2154 | 2163.90531180315 | 10.8680629798581 | 2.46546559649123 | -0.0867712600011075 |
| 18 | 2289 | 2218.0988665271 | 12.4188735100711 | -5.75741567923132 | 0.535093639741788 |
| 19 | 2628 | 2330.58527846132 | 15.809850826556 | 117.811508677249 | 1.25006117520687 |
| 20 | 2074 | 2281.13930355047 | 13.6810739621624 | -89.0272948122377 | -0.820636891225523 |
| 21 | 2798 | 2439.34959135606 | 18.2753137464588 | 95.7482196995303 | 1.82465241401208 |
| 22 | 2194 | 2371.67767874879 | 15.5910108578911 | -20.8768197803889 | -1.08751312069146 |
| 23 | 2442 | 2402.10081104947 | 16.0468710223893 | 12.7858510787277 | 0.187936077363493 |
| 24 | 2565 | 2464.69660752253 | 17.3624589556829 | 14.7072612847180 | 0.591781327679578 |
| 25 | 2063 | 2402.04145458738 | 18.2262497356037 | -177.717587410971 | -1.16202972002217 |
| 26 | 2069 | 2326.65277432987 | 15.2896804840721 | -99.1994137369548 | -1.12764028825202 |
| 27 | 2539 | 2389.44081057151 | 17.055214369634 | 71.9823248776717 | 0.559061662224207 |
| 28 | 1898 | 2234.48635564978 | 10.8855774559520 | -47.9633952541951 | -2.07263573808604 |
| 29 | 2139 | 2203.88817078151 | 9.4816737239956 | 6.39970239554116 | -0.509872288447007 |
| 30 | 2408 | 2275.63837582326 | 11.4905110897147 | 23.736558254078 | 0.77463554178737 |
| 31 | 2725 | 2381.09227525354 | 14.4206572437398 | 178.562601230372 | 1.17701918071131 |
| 32 | 2201 | 2382.63913246473 | 14.0281865425366 | -158.873148092259 | -0.161888137601245 |
| 33 | 2311 | 2336.75775364768 | 12.2283479372056 | 80.4821492963715 | -0.75498019042137 |
| 34 | 2548 | 2409.98220649803 | 14.0416909324939 | 29.6770280537185 | 0.769569425607615 |
| 35 | 2276 | 2384.50755821804 | 12.8870730139018 | -38.2198331649597 | -0.498952397018952 |
| 36 | 2351 | 2368.58902629516 | 12.1190646123319 | 33.8923124572294 | -0.364724296551222 |
| 37 | 2280 | 2385.42280900641 | 12.1738123286146 | -114.175031354706 | 0.0633912775576905 |
| 38 | 2057 | 2327.94259598895 | 10.1614584059506 | -151.065283217200 | -0.861337316732986 |
| 39 | 2479 | 2336.66805225396 | 10.1134980330295 | 144.722248268373 | -0.0173292191185292 |
| 40 | 2379 | 2366.86214367166 | 10.7826949329479 | -21.6430291312477 | 0.244871985749692 |
| 41 | 2295 | 2360.07316094591 | 10.2148201791189 | -35.0685691830888 | -0.216973648711578 |
| 42 | 2456 | 2395.73006322135 | 11.0131602683603 | 16.3805795171323 | 0.316754826213950 |
| 43 | 2546 | 2395.61138029551 | 10.6714660933779 | 169.707030922128 | -0.139247368484586 |
| 44 | 2844 | 2573.39691129358 | 15.7247658343628 | -20.3791710294614 | 2.09580207960602 |
| 45 | 2260 | 2488.94976368731 | 12.7262446978074 | -54.2088309625798 | -1.25797540059087 |
| 46 | 2981 | 2620.76101320660 | 16.2589540615583 | 152.287659701814 | 1.49648733015764 |
| 47 | 2678 | 2665.7356560585 | 17.095384275869 | -37.925011731198 | 0.360960125513249 |
| 48 | 3440 | 2893.81661808253 | 22.839008243436 | 176.526110230800 | 2.65674965561724 |
| 49 | 2842 | 2938.68651894352 | 23.3039260859963 | -135.973123208271 | 0.285899440905705 |
| 50 | 2450 | 2862.10826084632 | 20.436601228407 | -239.893831489386 | -1.24575796097112 |
| 51 | 2669 | 2771.68737159515 | 16.9254659812500 | 83.6828521885968 | -1.35570838740394 |
| 52 | 2570 | 2720.36110431901 | 14.7418390907276 | -35.2655862715918 | -0.838064950177667 |
| 53 | 2540 | 2685.02859554352 | 13.1628254858881 | -59.7967375329949 | -0.61983686308221 |
| 54 | 2318 | 2581.09211173324 | 9.53422684537268 | -62.3421865883817 | -1.45797980804168 |
| 55 | 2930 | 2645.21584789585 | 11.2018569394381 | 190.793489767872 | 0.681986063803361 |
| 56 | 2947 | 2742.31365749409 | 13.7988532422547 | 56.4427221015941 | 1.07500750391916 |
| 57 | 2799 | 2804.95785169896 | 15.2642823010650 | -90.3618215602581 | 0.611829607801072 |
| 58 | 2695 | 2753.51128142332 | 13.2790172231233 | 56.8329688057498 | -0.83582675836851 |
| 59 | 2498 | 2717.7070331049 | 11.8411970288735 | -134.821884037423 | -0.614846815481384 |
| 60 | 2260 | 2538.59523166308 | 6.48111768344218 | 51.8947803347048 | -2.39453214173193 |
| 61 | 2160 | 2444.55369558524 | 3.91505879898997 | -108.927604101295 | -1.28159821299290 |
| 62 | 2058 | 2381.70537075975 | 1.97750226012180 | -208.804096629078 | -0.834769491784797 |
| 63 | 2533 | 2387.04171876514 | 2.08106806611763 | 140.279646596819 | 0.0413896400698018 |
| 64 | 2150 | 2321.48386585283 | -0.0295257670351129 | -57.1638598374745 | -0.83428850609375 |
| 65 | 2172 | 2280.31463812709 | -1.30568991996116 | -38.3765083462462 | -0.510109454238787 |
| 66 | 2155 | 2265.23305283238 | -1.7288004246389 | -86.6928938143915 | -0.171541391207341 |
| 67 | 3016 | 2432.57290923517 | 3.4170577072288 | 293.595461724956 | 2.11056718405261 |
| 68 | 2333 | 2405.63600829408 | 2.49979619006629 | -20.5116395942459 | -0.37939309740531 |
| 69 | 2355 | 2409.22103661744 | 2.53239547215348 | -56.0860766746049 | 0.0135704865723837 |
| 70 | 2825 | 2504.08915999286 | 5.28732946332533 | 162.198722797145 | 1.15451019275586 |
| 71 | 2214 | 2448.34819454463 | 3.48802114676725 | -129.483953671453 | -0.762654530428371 |
| 72 | 2360 | 2395.47067015715 | 1.8673245581572 | 61.3812330177369 | -0.704925769813531 |
| 73 | 2299 | 2388.72044565505 | 1.62873780590411 | -74.8265596620747 | -0.108848510766505 |
| 74 | 1746 | 2262.59654976619 | -2.12063781186515 | -297.256858216115 | -1.59790282059093 |
| 75 | 2069 | 2146.95076894006 | -5.57380209694953 | 114.591506381698 | -1.40517554730947 |
| 76 | 2267 | 2180.80053256943 | -4.36260147052931 | 19.4458187440966 | 0.487744441805661 |
| 77 | 1878 | 2105.38376152757 | -6.54164654893659 | -106.633113771674 | -0.882131294759222 |
| 78 | 2266 | 2182.64700000811 | -3.98550420144873 | -59.6053000377485 | 1.04374403211719 |
| 79 | 2282 | 2127.30570945422 | -5.54307626358428 | 242.514255916826 | -0.640830163878807 |
| 80 | 2085 | 2116.22022759429 | -5.71034662183146 | -21.7307155127993 | -0.0692189309974396 |
| 81 | 2277 | 2181.08825270887 | -3.58981717229625 | -24.9815040069481 | 0.881584589889836 |
| 82 | 2251 | 2149.46830874801 | -4.42757764030574 | 149.535617282821 | -0.34998674507118 |
| 83 | 1828 | 2082.93893196887 | -6.26835944877092 | -148.656071633200 | -0.774877496247055 |
| 84 | 1954 | 2014.26624048412 | -8.09194154849332 | 46.5110015635037 | -0.779185214010929 |
| 85 | 1851 | 1962.56448749359 | -9.34674068712734 | -36.6427525560592 | -0.548010317868758 |
| 86 | 1570 | 1913.9503117304 | -10.5086568322436 | -276.675434166961 | -0.490968361799109 |
| 87 | 1852 | 1854.71095453821 | -11.9807770009269 | 80.0816850315142 | -0.604772216961945 |
| 88 | 2187 | 1926.65477727655 | -9.42691385557034 | 118.050040346391 | 1.04044934941535 |
| 89 | 1855 | 1942.19192299707 | -8.66730999875547 | -129.614987252938 | 0.310207423429667 |
| 90 | 2218 | 2029.56573811184 | -5.75339034670993 | 24.7637722803418 | 1.19633064528540 |
| 91 | 2253 | 2028.00783311825 | -5.62653891135796 | 217.828615351986 | 0.0523391431891837 |
| 92 | 2028 | 2036.93750489552 | -5.18788624879428 | -33.8142100926095 | 0.181697849112385 |
| 93 | 2169 | 2074.20116509741 | -3.91275450822712 | 22.2373944543963 | 0.529862829729522 |
| 94 | 1997 | 2001.13464696845 | -5.98202638660238 | 114.01739906272 | -0.862665377193845 |
| 95 | 2034 | 2036.44230017994 | -4.75329285654099 | -72.9296810737832 | 0.514710364202021 |
| 96 | 1791 | 1946.62220650160 | -7.26467637208701 | -10.4273775533224 | -1.06114206637846 |
| 97 | 1627 | 1851.54785805209 | -9.8405711001353 | -74.2157290592173 | -1.10015617688115 |
| 98 | 1631 | 1852.15693140741 | -9.52971464220552 | -239.028905045737 | 0.130581166644055 |
| 99 | 2319 | 1966.09050293135 | -5.81293480165451 | 142.959579161602 | 1.53466733064561 |
| 100 | 1707 | 1867.14913930592 | -8.63045763261929 | -2.10266222141391 | -1.15618207381797 |
| 101 | 1747 | 1867.95037643218 | -8.34496784084239 | -136.979209580839 | 0.117275995325598 |
| 102 | 2397 | 2007.41238061928 | -3.87760144756737 | 137.855247428456 | 1.84135890111606 |
| 103 | 2059 | 1969.15952661878 | -4.91439060864137 | 148.475365143973 | -0.428757976994958 |
| 104 | 2251 | 2056.93713581241 | -2.12483963010166 | 35.8474937121204 | 1.15660545882873 |
| 105 | 2558 | 2191.96649525593 | 1.99342062243652 | 131.933261120510 | 1.71102448419760 |
| 106 | 2406 | 2233.47975971899 | 3.1769030338036 | 105.105067274238 | 0.492697820953331 |
| 107 | 2049 | 2197.78441379926 | 2.01692405691674 | -82.5289336980783 | -0.4843128082832 |
| 108 | 2074 | 2157.87650933914 | 0.771393894626389 | -12.4229404343499 | -0.522692009093206 |
| 109 | 1734 | 2060.04507720472 | -2.15036893325859 | -157.596006541382 | -1.23315430640682 |
