Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[52])
48	250161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	254278	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	250801	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	253985	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	249174	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	251287	252634.8357	249360.1389	255867.6251	0.2069	0.9821	0.1596	0.9821
54	247947	249421.8019	244963.5679	253801.7355	0.2546	0.202	0.2686	0.5441
55	249992	250966.4372	245528.8164	256288.7151	0.3599	0.8669	0.1331	0.7454
56	243805	248116.5141	240874.3706	255153.183	0.1149	0.3007	0.3842	0.3842
57	255812	251436.847	242096.9546	260442.0102	0.1705	0.9517	0.513	0.6888
58	250417	247545.4226	236228.5404	258367.0822	0.3015	0.0672	0.471	0.384
59	253033	250077.8659	236934.0854	262564.5011	0.3214	0.4788	0.5054	0.5564
60	248705	247011.1694	231691.1473	261434.9783	0.409	0.2066	0.6685	0.3844
61	253950	250110.9924	232405.9489	266643.0047	0.3245	0.5662	0.2496	0.5442
62	251484	246666.2243	226276.563	265494.5752	0.308	0.2242	0.3481	0.397
63	251093	249054.3317	226574.8947	269666.3444	0.4231	0.4086	0.3526	0.4955
64	245996	245902.8201	220627.3818	268812.1133	0.4968	0.3285	0.4053	0.3898
65	252721	249228.4076	221303.8945	274324.9617	0.3925	0.5997	0.3562	0.5017
66	248019	245674.229	214469.6893	273339.3604	0.434	0.3088	0.3403	0.4021
67	250464	248058.892	214419.5659	277652.0801	0.4367	0.5011	0.4204	0.4706
68	245571	244990.0885	207892.421	277166.0661	0.4859	0.3694	0.4756	0.3994
69	252690	248273.4375	208304.1896	282646.0049	0.4006	0.5612	0.3999	0.4795
70	250183	244709.4753	200708.6829	281924.5984	0.3866	0.3371	0.4308	0.4071
71	253639	247143.821	200378.8419	286371.1862	0.3728	0.4397	0.4341	0.4596
72	254436	244034.0366	193029.4859	286085.3712	0.3139	0.3272	0.4714	0.4053
73	265280	247336.7992	193201.9891	291588.7103	0.2134	0.3766	0.4063	0.4676
74	268705	243775.7975	184692.6769	291104.61	0.1509	0.1866	0.3954	0.4116
75	270643	246204.576	183997.6851	295598.1028	0.1661	0.186	0.384	0.4531
76	271480	243088.231	175642.3355	295522.4967	0.1443	0.1515	0.3357	0.41

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
53	0.0065	-0.0053	0	1816661.1699	0	0
54	0.009	-0.0059	0.0056	2175040.6431	1995850.9065	1412.7459
55	0.0108	-0.0039	0.005	949527.7982	1647076.5371	1283.3848
56	0.0145	-0.0174	0.0081	18589154.2553	5882595.9666	2425.4064
57	0.0183	0.0174	0.01	19141963.5411	8534469.4815	2921.3814
58	0.0223	0.0116	0.0103	8245956.8902	8486384.0496	2913.1399
59	0.0255	0.0118	0.0105	8732817.4449	8521588.8204	2919.1761
60	0.0298	0.0069	0.01	2869062.0243	7815022.9709	2795.5363
61	0.0337	0.0153	0.0106	14737979.0553	8584240.3136	2929.8874
62	0.0389	0.0195	0.0115	23210962.4732	10046912.5296	3169.6865
63	0.0422	0.0082	0.0112	4156168.6175	9511390.3557	3084.0542
64	0.0475	4e-04	0.0103	8682.4948	8719498.034	2952.8796
65	0.0514	0.014	0.0106	12198201.5475	8987090.612	2997.8477
66	0.0575	0.0095	0.0105	5497951.0602	8737866.3583	2955.9882
67	0.0609	0.0097	0.0105	5784544.3355	8540978.2234	2922.4952
68	0.067	0.0024	0.01	337458.1907	8028258.2214	2833.4181
69	0.0706	0.0178	0.0104	19506024.5311	8703420.9455	2950.1561
70	0.0776	0.0224	0.0111	29959472.8137	9884312.7159	3143.9327
71	0.081	0.0263	0.0119	42187349.8645	11584472.5658	3403.597
72	0.0879	0.0426	0.0134	108200841.9479	16415291.0349	4051.5788
73	0.0913	0.0725	0.0162	321958453.3534	30964965.4311	5564.6173
74	0.0991	0.1023	0.0201	621465137.397	57805882.3386	7603.018
75	0.1024	0.0993	0.0236	597236566.3143	81259390.3376	9014.3991
76	0.1101	0.1168	0.0275	806092547.4216	111460771.8827	10557.4984