| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[49]) |
| 37 | 268381 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 38 | 262522 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 39 | 255542 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 40 | 253158 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 41 | 243803 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 42 | 250741 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 43 | 280445 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 44 | 285257 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 45 | 270976 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 46 | 261076 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 47 | 255603 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 48 | 260376 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 263903 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 264291 | 259534.0145 | 252376.4883 | 266791.622 | 0.0995 | 0.119 | 0.2099 | 0.119 |
| 51 | 263276 | 253928.6898 | 243756.0299 | 264309.3003 | 0.0388 | 0.0252 | 0.3803 | 0.0298 |
| 52 | 262572 | 251698.3837 | 239389.178 | 264316.1706 | 0.0456 | 0.0361 | 0.4103 | 0.029 |
| 53 | 256167 | 243630.6234 | 228894.4777 | 258826.4416 | 0.0529 | 0.0073 | 0.4911 | 0.0045 |
| 54 | 264221 | 249987.5197 | 232754.2368 | 267836.2056 | 0.059 | 0.2487 | 0.467 | 0.0632 |
| 55 | 293860 | 279446.5313 | 259122.8494 | 300537.4296 | 0.0902 | 0.9215 | 0.463 | 0.9257 |
| 56 | 300713 | 284265.25 | 261716.9999 | 307745.1064 | 0.0849 | 0.2116 | 0.467 | 0.9554 |
| 57 | 287224 | 271579.9459 | 247710.2649 | 296547.4004 | 0.1097 | 0.0111 | 0.5189 | 0.7266 |
| 58 | 275902 | 261376.1592 | 236316.813 | 287698.0697 | 0.1397 | 0.0271 | 0.5089 | 0.4254 |
| 59 | 271115 | 255259.0431 | 228957.8035 | 282989.9441 | 0.1312 | 0.0723 | 0.4903 | 0.2706 |
| 60 | 277509 | 259255.2318 | 231274.3335 | 288833.5232 | 0.1132 | 0.216 | 0.4704 | 0.379 |
| 61 | 279681 | 262047.3691 | 232518.4139 | 293340.9788 | 0.1347 | 0.1664 | 0.4537 | 0.4537 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 50 | 0.0143 | 0.0183 | 0 | 22628911.3548 | 0 | 0 |
| 51 | 0.0209 | 0.0368 | 0.0276 | 87372207.6752 | 55000559.515 | 7416.2362 |
| 52 | 0.0256 | 0.0432 | 0.0328 | 118235531.0763 | 76078883.3688 | 8722.321 |
| 53 | 0.0318 | 0.0515 | 0.0374 | 157160738.5986 | 96349347.1762 | 9815.7703 |
| 54 | 0.0364 | 0.0569 | 0.0413 | 202591960.4885 | 117597869.8387 | 10844.2552 |
| 55 | 0.0385 | 0.0516 | 0.0431 | 207748078.7847 | 132622904.663 | 11516.2018 |
| 56 | 0.0421 | 0.0579 | 0.0452 | 270528480.4391 | 152323701.2025 | 12341.9488 |
| 57 | 0.0469 | 0.0576 | 0.0467 | 244736427.2476 | 163875291.9581 | 12801.3785 |
| 58 | 0.0514 | 0.0556 | 0.0477 | 211000050.5895 | 169111376.2505 | 13004.283 |
| 59 | 0.0554 | 0.0621 | 0.0491 | 251411369.7436 | 177341375.5998 | 13316.9582 |
| 60 | 0.0582 | 0.0704 | 0.0511 | 333200055.287 | 191510346.4804 | 13838.7263 |
| 61 | 0.0609 | 0.0673 | 0.0524 | 310944937.1885 | 201463229.0394 | 14193.7743 |
