| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618.00000000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786.00000000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199.00000000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 664079.7424 | 505560.1446 | 826509.5562 | 0.4092 | 0.0121 | 0.6677 | 0.0121 |
| 62 | 847224 | 900223.45 | 732559.1978 | 1071086.2043 | 0.2716 | 0.9936 | 0.2697 | 0.7144 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1130855.6447 | 956834.8427 | 1307605.7514 | 0.2615 | 0.9992 | 0.3717 | 0.999 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1526545.4422 | 1346839.2784 | 1708396.6722 | 0.4476 | 1 | 0.9126 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1592695.302 | 1412109.7459 | 1775355.7837 | 0.1699 | 0.7998 | 0.2301 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1523004.4076 | 1343270.1948 | 1704889.4309 | 0.4346 | 0.5823 | 0.6172 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2964656.193 | 2771995.0032 | 3158578.3702 | 0.1586 | 1 | 0.6785 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2673246.618 | 2482631.6568 | 2865231.5218 | 0.1204 | 0.0247 | 0.1478 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1389619.3257 | 1211620.3954 | 1569933.435 | 0.4914 | 0 | 0.425 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1359325.4924 | 1181743.4809 | 1539264.0452 | 0.4694 | 0.3626 | 0.4529 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 957996.3263 | 786994.7473 | 1132120.5408 | 0.4476 | 0 | 0.4707 | 0.8861 |
| 72 | 859626 | 862212.8887 | 693199.7543 | 1034624.8217 | 0.4883 | 0.1696 | 0.5514 | 0.5514 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1248 | 0.0287 | 0 | 362455252.5958 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0968 | -0.0589 | 0.0438 | 2808941701.4049 | 1585698477.0004 | 39820.8297 |
| 63 | 0.0797 | -0.0509 | 0.0462 | 3317719069.72 | 2163038674.5736 | 46508.4796 |
| 64 | 0.0608 | -0.008 | 0.0366 | 149314768.4817 | 1659607698.0506 | 40738.283 |
| 65 | 0.0585 | -0.0559 | 0.0405 | 7914113260.9704 | 2910508810.6345 | 53949.1317 |
| 66 | 0.0609 | -0.01 | 0.0354 | 233857731.6185 | 2464400297.4652 | 49642.7265 |
| 67 | 0.0334 | -0.0334 | 0.0351 | 9792723959.2301 | 3511303677.7173 | 59256.2543 |
| 68 | 0.0366 | 0.043 | 0.0361 | 13197731935.9444 | 4722107209.9957 | 68717.5903 |
| 69 | 0.0662 | 0.0014 | 0.0322 | 3907241.1425 | 4197862769.012 | 64790.9158 |
| 70 | 0.0675 | 0.0052 | 0.0295 | 49737862.9673 | 3783050278.4075 | 61506.506 |
| 71 | 0.0927 | -0.0122 | 0.028 | 136921036.4176 | 3451583983.6812 | 58750.1828 |
| 72 | 0.102 | -0.003 | 0.0259 | 6691993.1343 | 3164509651.1356 | 56253.9745 |
