| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[210]) |
| 198 | 3504.37 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 199 | 3032.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 200 | 3047.03 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 201 | 2962.34 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 202 | 2197.82 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 203 | 2014.45 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 204 | 1862.83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 205 | 1905.41 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 206 | 1810.99 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 207 | 1670.07 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 208 | 1864.44 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 209 | 2052.02 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 210 | 2029.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 211 | 2070.83 | 2011.0316 | 1778.0734 | 2243.9899 | 0.3074 | 0.4379 | 0 | 0.4379 |
| 212 | 2293.41 | 2077.6272 | 1698.8013 | 2456.4531 | 0.1321 | 0.514 | 0 | 0.5981 |
| 213 | 2443.27 | 2074.9312 | 1590.521 | 2559.3414 | 0.0681 | 0.1883 | 2e-04 | 0.5728 |
| 214 | 2513.17 | 2006.6056 | 1422.4223 | 2590.789 | 0.0446 | 0.0715 | 0.2606 | 0.4693 |
| 215 | 2466.92 | 2026.3215 | 1349.8002 | 2702.8429 | 0.1009 | 0.0792 | 0.5137 | 0.4962 |
| 216 | 2502.66 | 2015.9281 | 1256.9311 | 2774.9252 | 0.1044 | 0.1221 | 0.6537 | 0.4859 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 211 | 0.0591 | 0.0297 | 0 | 3575.8445 | 0 | 0 |
| 212 | 0.093 | 0.1039 | 0.0668 | 46562.2024 | 25069.0234 | 158.332 |
| 213 | 0.1191 | 0.1775 | 0.1037 | 135673.4857 | 61937.1775 | 248.8718 |
| 214 | 0.1485 | 0.2524 | 0.1409 | 256607.4557 | 110604.7471 | 332.5729 |
| 215 | 0.1703 | 0.2174 | 0.1562 | 194127.0255 | 127309.2028 | 356.8042 |
| 216 | 0.1921 | 0.2414 | 0.1704 | 236907.9021 | 145575.6527 | 381.5438 |
