| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | ma1 | sar1 | sar2 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | -0.4913 | 0.3829 | 0.4174 | 0.2935 | 0.1948 | -0.471 | 0.2935 |
| (p-val) | (0.0186 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (0.808 ) | (0.2089 ) | (0 ) | (0.808 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | -0.5886 | 0.4509 | 0.4135 | 0 | 0.1785 | -0.4305 | 0.707 |
| (p-val) | (0.0013 ) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0.1632 ) | (0 ) | (0.0063 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | -0.5718 | 0.5029 | 0.319 | 0 | 0 | -0.3465 | 0.8551 |
| (p-val) | (0 ) | (0 ) | (4e-04 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (4e-04 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 10 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 11 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 12 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 13 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| 1.14510934051474 |
| 29.5831519191089 |
| 19.877488750705 |
| -21.0773250189315 |
| 23.2601215783404 |
| -28.2180766336424 |
| -39.0072041830626 |
| -50.2705342734260 |
| 13.6433222105837 |
| 7.00796559363794 |
| 44.2330742870726 |
| -17.7278907581283 |
| 40.9633800910056 |
| 40.3928917555035 |
| 15.4074887572086 |
| -8.8039933848595 |
| -46.8708733392805 |
| 29.0914821367792 |
| 59.9781355327506 |
| 18.9331045452236 |
| -39.1476025921752 |
| 57.3706927041309 |
| -6.80897993597703 |
| 48.8849886538227 |
| 34.901689756515 |
| 16.396695907082 |
| -46.6792310267876 |
| -5.5231479611548 |
| 19.8369657383799 |
| -94.9237543148447 |
| 10.1893124083478 |
| 42.9969137998007 |
| -47.1813347522284 |
| -46.1646775246676 |
| 51.582935942008 |
| -10.4938437145402 |
| -18.3966974245396 |
| -5.74297021644041 |
| -42.1257666878921 |
| 74.3921106056191 |
| 69.7321153115764 |
| -28.55562666021 |
| 37.3942486737373 |
| -6.63536974001851 |
| -19.7045551719977 |
| -46.9143703249648 |
| 38.3111043348601 |
| 66.9289172724648 |
| 80.3084178078253 |
| 8.71349923214574 |
| 18.9633196796815 |
| -8.1371792206055 |
| 4.4399844856639 |
| -5.35552484742561 |
| -48.662805603625 |
| 47.8382303781107 |
| -13.1744664197395 |
| 48.7045829057433 |
| 39.1998065064747 |
| 17.2565981910534 |
| 91.4421190107085 |
| 75.8754114823905 |
| 17.1314938897995 |
| -26.9921682228683 |
| 82.3159105527925 |
| 41.4256434429508 |
| 150.732233364553 |
| -179.284912860423 |
| 22.6570839440115 |
| -43.9463083213059 |
| -40.6272199492732 |
| 88.0293563240757 |
| 59.2632168336145 |
| 130.595391564722 |
| 180.896633539073 |
| 118.763249884595 |
| 4.5955479266031 |
| 145.725292741571 |
| 132.204427252000 |
| -248.637832764873 |
| -230.435959544483 |
| -118.699009050447 |
| 231.994996831003 |
| 73.6120609540522 |
| 167.658547809545 |
| -113.379844176488 |
| -100.347420936341 |
| -43.4410732864271 |
| -95.7073895430194 |
| 12.9632372671422 |
| -43.4098288339701 |
| -6.3227395644999 |
| 141.102881275581 |
| -198.172687401915 |
| 312.354829668964 |
| -127.254447499231 |
| -131.536277150492 |
| -223.791190918921 |
| 57.4624117335011 |
| 62.7347276658115 |
| 34.7671795456945 |
| 49.0256845529561 |
| 132.645655834529 |
| 73.8035824987219 |
| -144.082816597475 |
| 43.4000544736723 |
| 22.8428831730043 |
| -115.968061985014 |
| -3.16234016280714 |
| 25.0502579329532 |
| -175.654462318769 |
| 74.578496058326 |
| -60.2232725323579 |
| 85.40941360748 |
| 53.6186713580992 |
| -6.69648046838029 |
| -301.729857195751 |
| 133.172448828607 |
| -40.1422045540739 |
| 23.1279957908168 |
| 90.0480375982575 |
| 43.5288755721663 |
| -47.8134077403024 |
| 95.2252006933773 |
| -55.2332768561018 |
| -236.487243644851 |
| -191.089348288010 |
| -33.2956347537156 |
| -123.702915650186 |
| -36.2225982616903 |
| 175.184857984655 |
| -45.8547856841988 |
| -4.04554827152742 |
| -158.583296216273 |
| -72.8162089447185 |
| 210.181528657962 |
| 54.6419202333277 |
| 58.1446859857674 |
| 11.4730954103736 |
| 74.8726516068173 |
| -32.9235778410969 |
| 31.8855218756626 |
| 21.0709520610294 |
| 10.4715767544326 |
| 126.283725423292 |
| 47.5050374010816 |
| -60.7542342093757 |
| 58.4141336410376 |
| -105.820290420611 |
| 51.392634981165 |
| -32.7388896769062 |
| 67.4484290206938 |
| 114.030403141996 |
| 91.3431354922036 |
| 43.4066313467552 |
| 48.8749573609512 |
| 8.3446958828872 |
| 61.497924893255 |
| -21.5907602177031 |
| -3.48374974071794 |
| -81.4203528852245 |
| 43.4910756159616 |
| 33.9980285157672 |
| 91.8017870758004 |
| -12.2005074939002 |
| 23.9613015460604 |
| 34.97542635321 |
| 106.790636991715 |
| 121.288494198168 |
| 103.625198316313 |
| 47.9371241993072 |
| -73.3085253350491 |
| -120.598800135265 |
| -238.293626969748 |
| 180.281065207151 |
| 107.662815883300 |
| 114.869327083717 |
| 145.379211571178 |
| 26.4722584637875 |
| 25.0733669427573 |
| 109.991172897771 |
| -12.0497494565843 |
| -176.867744069596 |
| 258.167575110294 |
| -1.78355845331316 |
| -83.0451232641126 |
| -55.7088432698911 |
| -346.147267222352 |
| 149.877567942319 |
| 111.472252539601 |
| -314.534133374292 |
| 127.383238927835 |
| -274.341245231075 |
| -49.7264073864894 |
| -13.8344115667983 |
| 268.464417687361 |
| -124.838486916581 |
| -187.59369277682 |
| -440.737459872609 |
| 160.544166579793 |
| -135.236742261389 |
| -622.084792331595 |
| 61.9433997319716 |
| -85.6862983151102 |
| 132.555559881305 |
| -29.9928368703957 |
| 6.45548746267627 |
| 191.346273053471 |
| 179.089969617082 |
| -81.4858049865329 |
| 84.3707146368966 |
| 169.403196535344 |
| 60.8251686973995 |
| 26.444766474242 |
| -73.7972539004536 |
| 14.1159884907506 |
